1. President Trump’s Controversial Tweet: On Pitching Decisions in the Baseball Postseason
Isabel López
Komeno Ogbeneme
Joseph Gutierrez
Nolan Murakami
Eric Miller

2. Overview
Topic
Background
Methods
Results
Discussion
Future Directions

3. Topic
Should describe briefly what happened in this game.
-EM

4. Topic
Sometimes leaving the starting pitcher in works well… and sometimes it doesn’t
Eduardo Rodriguez wins case to stay in game then proceeds to give up massive home run (2018)
-EM

5. Topic
Sometimes leaving the starting pitcher in works well… and sometimes it doesn’t
Grady Little leaves Pedro Martinez in; Yankees come back to win (2003)
-EM

6. Background
Ganeshapillai and Guttag (2014) developed a model to predict pitcher performance in progression of innings
Informs likelihood of starting pitcher surrendering runs in the next inning
At least one run surrendered in 18% of innings where model aligned with manager decisions to keep starting pitcher
One run surrendered in 32% of innings where model suggested starting pitcher be pulled, but managers kept them in
Explain meaning here
-applying machine learning to generate a model that could lead to better on-field decisions by predicting pitcher’s performance in next inning
-IL

7. Background
Meanwhile, sport psychology research suggests that a relief pitcher may be poised for a successful, “clutch” performance, as opposed to a “nervous” one, if mentally prepared
In fact, due the nature of their job, do relief pitchers have better access to the keys to clutch performance than do starting pitchers?
Clutch performance: performing better than usual, when under pressure
-IL

8. Background The keys to clutch performance
Feeling in control (Otten, 2009)
Having access to choice (Iwatsuki & Otten, under review)
Confidence (Baumeister & Showers, 1986)
Not over-thinking it (Beilock & Carr, 2001)
-IL

9. Methods
Current Study and Data Analysis
Testing Donald Trump’s statement, considering it contradicts previous research
Analyzed data from the last four years of postseason MLB ( )
Data obtained from ESPN.com and Baseball-reference.com
Last 4 years may be especially relevant due to increased usage/importance of relief pitchers (analytics) (Started with Oakland A’s and moneyball)
-EM

10. Results
A starting pitcher was pulled prior to the 7th inning 58 times when his team was leading, and he had yielded less than 4 earned runs
Reliever(s) successfully preserved the lead 78% of the time
-58 times, a starting pitcher was pulled from the game prior to the 7th inning having yielded less than 4 earned runs, while his team was leading
-78% of the time, the team’s lead was successfully preserved by the reliever(s)
-IL

11. Results
10 of these 58 times, starting pitchers had a lead of 4 or more runs
The lead was held by the bullpen 9 out of these 10 times
The only time the lead was not held: Game 4 of the 2018 World Series
-of the 58 instances, 10 times the pitcher had a lead of 4 runs or more
-9/10, the lead was held by the bullpen → these specific numbers matched the tweet exactly (relievers being placed in, having lead of 4 or more runs) “managers do this all the time” losing 4-run lead
-IL

12. Discussion
From a sport psychology perspective, there is value in sending out a pitcher best prepared to give a clutch performance in postseason play: sending out to the mound one that is feeling confident and in control
Preliminary results suggest that the Dodgers’ decision to remove Rich Hill from Game 4 was not a bad one, and that their relievers’ failure to hold the lead was unusual
-in practice, from a sport psychology perspective, in postseason play it is beneficial for a baseball manager to send to the mound the pitcher that is best prepared to give a clutch performance. That is, one that is feeling confident, and in control (e.g., Otten, 2009)
-NM

13. Future Directions
-NM

14. Future Directions
Expanding on data (adding more years prior, and/or regular season games)
Adding a control group for comparison: what happens when a manager leaves the starting pitcher in the game?
Specific inning threshold?
Specific pitch count threshold?
-NM

15. References
Baumeister, R. F., & Showers, C. J. (1986). A review of paradoxical performance effects: Choking under pressure in sports and mental tests. European Journal of Social Psychology, 16,
Beilock, S. L., & Carr, T. H. (2001). On the fragility of skilled performance: What governs choking under pressure? Journal of Experimental Psychology, General, 130,
Ganeshapillai, G. & Guttag, J. (2014). A data-driven method for in-game decision making in MLB. Sports Analytic Conference, 2014.
Otten, M. (2009). Choking vs. clutch performance: A study of sport performance under pressure. Journal of Sport and Exercise Psychology, 5,