1. National Agricultural Statistics Service
United States Department of Agriculture
National Agricultural Statistics Service
2017 Extension Summer
Outlook Conference
Indianapolis, IN
Lance Honig, Chief
Crops Branch
August 15, 2017

2. Agenda Where Do Crop Forecasts Come From? August Forecast Highlights
Other Topics to Think About

3. Where Do Yield Forecasts Come From?
Ag Yield Survey
Farmers Report Expected Yields
Objective Yield Survey
Enumerators Make Counts & Measurements, Eventually Harvest Sample Plots
Remote Sensing
Yield Indications Derived Using Satellite Imagery

4. How Are Sources Weighted?
Ag Yield Survey
Objective Yield Survey
Yield Forecast
Remote Sensing

5. How Are Sources Weighted?
Ag Yield Survey
Tends to have more weight early in the season.
Objective Yield Survey
As crop matures more useful data are obtained.
Remote Sensing
Supports survey based indications.

6. How Are Sources Weighted?
Indication
Indication +/- xx SE
Source

7. How Are Sources Weighted?

8. How Are Sources Weighted?
DATA ARE NOT REAL – FOR ILLUSTRATIVE PURPOSES ONLY

9. Corn, Soybeans, Cotton, and Winter Wheat
Survey Overview
Ag Yield
Objective Yield
Survey Type
Farmer Reported
Field Measurement
Crops Included
Field Crops
Corn, Soybeans, Cotton, and Winter Wheat
Sample Size
21,654
Corn: 960*
Soybeans: 917*
Cotton: 1,197
Winter Wheat: 1,470
Total: 4,544
Collection Period
July 29 – Aug 4
July 25 – Aug 1
* Only Even-Numbered Samples Observed in August. Counts will double in September.
USDA-NASS

10. USDA-NASS

11. USDA-NASS

12. USDA-NASS

13. USDA-NASS

14. Other Information Sources
Crop Progress
Crop Condition
Weather Data
Administrative Data

15. Condition vs Yield Data
Condition Ratings
Yield Surveys
How Many Reports?
~3,000
21,654 Farmers
4,544 Field Plots
Who Reports?
Extension Agents
FSA Employees
Farmers
Actual Field Analysis
What is Reported?
Overall Crop Condition
(V Poor, Poor, Fair, Good, Excellent)
Expected Yield
Plant & Fruit Counts/Fruit Weight

16. August 2017 Crop Production
USDA-NASS

17. USDA-NASS

18. USDA-NASS

19. USDA-NASS

20. USDA-NASS

21. Largest Change = 12.4 Bushels (2010)
Average Change = 4.1 Bushels
Smallest Change = 0.3 Bushel (2012)
USDA-NASS

22. August 2017 Crop Production
USDA-NASS

23. USDA-NASS

24. USDA-NASS

25. USDA-NASS

26. Average Change = 2.05 Bushels
Smallest Change = 0.2 Bushel (2007)
Largest Change = 5.5 Bushels (2003)

27. August 2017 Crop Production
USDA-NASS

28. USDA-NASS

29. NASS
Estimate
High
Of Expectations
USDA-NASS

30. USDA-NASS

31. USDA-NASS

32. Executive Summary Emailed to distribution list at release time
Posted to NASS website

33. Other Topics Census of Agriculture Harvested Acres Biotech Acres
Principal Crops

34. USDA Data Users’ Meeting

35. National Agricultural Statistics Service All Reports Available At
United States Department of Agriculture
National Agricultural Statistics Service
All Reports Available At
For Questions