1. The Belt and Road Initiative: Challenges, Prospects and the Importance of “Soft Infrastructure”
Jurij C. Kofner
Research assistant, Advanced Systems Analysis Program
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
(IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria

2. In this short presentation I am going to share with you some insights that we have gained based on 10 workshops and conferences organized and three in–depth studies conducted as a part of this project in what concerns economic connectivity in Greater Eurasia

3. Transit Railway Container Traffic along PRC–EAEU-EU Routes ( , TEU thousand) Source: IIASA (2018)

4. Estimated freight rate elasticity of demand (2011 – 2030) Scenario 1
Estimated freight rate elasticity of demand (2011 – 2030) Scenario 1. Rate reduction to “Sea + $1000” Scenario 2. Current freight rate unchanged C Source: IIASA (2018)

5. Estimated Cost and Duration of Freight Transport by Standard 20-Foot Containers from China to Western Europe Source: IIASA (2018)

6. Barriers and Recommendations
Barriers to international freight transit:
Discrepancy of the regulatory requirements (e.g. length of trains);
Infrastructural bottleneck - insufficient capacity at international border crossing points in the EU and EAEU countries;
Insufficiently harmonized procedures for crossing borders (EU- EAEU);
Different gauges – not as important as one might think!
Specific regulations within the bilateral intergovernmental agreements (quoting of transportations, restriction of a choice of routes) etc.
Main barriers are regulations, not physical infrastructure, except Poland.
Some recommendations:
International coordination of the development of land transport corridors, including coordination of investment policies.
Investments into infrastructural bottlenecks. We identify three of them:
(1) border crossings (China-Russia, China-Kazakhstan, Belarus-Poland);
(2) logistics hubs in the EAEU countries;
(3) Polish railway infrastructure. Regulatory convergence wherever feasible!

7. Research project “Improving soft infrastructure connectivity between the EU, EAEU and China”
“Hard” vs. “soft” infrastructure
Research project together with
the German Economic Institute
EU strategy “Connecting Europe and Asia” (September 2018)
Promotion of European regulations, standards, rules, regulations, models, etc.
Stock tacking of soft infrastructure:
Freight documents; Customs procedures; Import/export loans: Investment regulations; Technical regulations; E-commerce regulations; Technical aspects of rail connectivity.
Models used
Language
Level of digitalization
Business friendliness
Level of harmonization

8. Thank you for your attention!