1. Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Crop Market Outlook
Crop Advantage Series
Ames, Iowa
Jan. 11, 2017
Chad Hart
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist 1 1

2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Area Planted
(mil. acres)
95.4
90.6
88.0
94.5
90.0
Yield
(bu./acre)
158.1
171.0
168.4
175.3
170.8
Production
(mil. bu.)
13,829
14,216
13,601
15,226
14,060
Beg. Stocks
821
1,232
1,731
1,738
2,403
Imports 36 32 67 50
Total Supply
14,686
15,479
15,400
17,013
16,513
Feed & Residual
5,040
5,280
5,130
5,650
5,500
Ethanol
5,124
5,200
5,206
5,300
5,325
Food, Seed, & Other
1,369
1,401
1,429
1,435
1,440
Exports
1,920
1,867
1,898
2,225
1,950
Total Use
13,454
13,748
13,662
14,610
14,215
Ending Stocks
2,298
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
4.46
3.70
3.61
3.35
3.30
Source: USDA-WAOB , USDA-OCE 2017 2 2

3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Area Planted
(mil. acres)
76.8
83.3
82.7
83.7
85.5
Yield
(bu./acre)
44.0
47.5
48.0
52.5
47.9
Production
(mil. bu.)
3,358
3,927
3,926
4,361
4,050
Beg. Stocks
141 92
191
197
480
Imports 72 33 24 30
Total Supply
3,570
4,052
4,140
4,588
4,560
Crush
1,734
1,873
1,886
1,930
1,935
Seed & Residual
107
146
121
127
130
Exports
1,638
1,842
1,936
2,050
2,100
Total Use
3,478
3,862
3,943
4,108
4,165
Ending Stocks
396
Season-Average Price
($/bu.)
13.00
10.10
8.95
9.45
9.35
Source: USDA-WAOB , USDA-OCE 2017 3 3

4. Corn Yield Estimates Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

5. Soy Yield Estimates Top: 2016 Yield Bottom: Change from last month
Units: Bushels/acre
Source: USDA-NASS

6. Drought Monitor
Source: National Drought Mitigation Center 6 6

7. South American Weather
Source: NOAA, Climate Prediction Center 7 7

8. World Corn Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 8 8

9. World Soybean Production
Source: USDA-WAOB 9 9

10. Hog Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.
Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures
Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig
Source: ISU Extension

11. Cattle Crush Margin
The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.
Live weight: pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds
Corn: 50 bushels per head
Source: ISU Extension

12. U.S. Meat Production & Prices
Source: USDA-WAOB 12 12

13. Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

14. Change in Corn Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

15. Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

16. Change in Soybean Export Sales
Source: USDA-FAS

17. Strength of the U.S. Dollar
Source: Federal Reserve

18. Corn Grind for Ethanol

19. Crude Oil Prices
Sources: EIA and CME

20. Current Corn Futures
4.01
3.87
3.52
Source: CME Group, 1/10/2017

21. Current Soybean Futures
9.83
9.76
9.54
Source: CME Group, 1/10/2017

22. 2016/17 Crop Margins @ Trend Yields

23. 2016/17 Crop Margins @ Actual Yields

24. 2017/18 Crop Margins

25. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

26. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

27. Thank you for your time. Any questions. My web site: http://www2. econ
Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: Iowa Farm Outlook: Ag Decision Maker: