1. Sustainable Heating and Cooling in Sweden
Dr. Monica Axell
Business Development Manager, RISE Division Built Environment

2. Expected energy developments
Heating demand will remain significant
Cooling demand will grow rapidly
Flexibility more and more important
Sector coupling – Buildings-Transport- Industry

3. Sustainability

4. District Heating and Cooling
Sweden
Oil and Gas
Energy
Biomass Boiler
District Heating and Cooling
Electricity
Heat Pumps

5. Supplied energy to district heating 1980-2017
Other
Peat
Fossil
Renewable
Recovered

6. Heat demand
RISE — Mallpresentation

7. Utilisation Waste
Upgrading/(vehicle fuel)
Heating
Flaring
Power production
Industrial use
Other use
Missing data/losses

9. Market for cooling is growing in Sweden

10. The heating market will change
The era of oil and gas
The bi-polar world
The heating future
Oil
Oil becomes obsolete
Heat pumps are the most effective individual technology, but require competitive pricing of electricity vs. gas to win
Heat pump
Due to slow change rate, available infrastructure, and price gas will stay in the market for a long time
Gas
Green Gas
???
…will this come?
Heating grids are (where available/ new build in dense areas) the best option (scale effect …)
District Heat
Biomass
Combined H/P
Biomass, waste and independent Micro-Grids will play a niche role for local solutions
Coal and direct electricity heating will fade out
Today
Future
Source: Pöyry, prognos AG, team analysis

11. Heating grids development
System temperature
1st gen (>200°C)
200 °C
150 °C
100 °C
50 °C
0 °C
Steam
Pressurized hot water systems
Heavy equipment
Large stations
Pre-insulated pipes
Industrialized compact substations (insulated)
Metering and monitoring
Low energy demands
Smart grid (optimum interaction of energy sources, distribution and cons.) 2-way DH
Bidirectonal
Can deliver cooling and heating
Active components in buildings
Flexible temperatures
2:a gen smart grid
Recycles all thermal flows
2nd gen (>100°C)
3rd gen (80-100°C)
4th gen (<60(70)°C)
Flexible system
temperatures (°C)
5GDH™
Warm hybrid
Cold hybrid
s s s

12. Decarbonisation of the heating sector
14 EC countries (90 % av Europes heating market)
Simulation of scenarios
Conclusions:
CO2 reduction with 86% - baseline 1990 (heating and cooling market)
Well known technology:
District heating in urban areas
Heat pumps (individual or in district heating grid )

13. Europé DHC 2050 - HRE4 District Heating - 50 % of heat demand 2050
12% today
Large heat pumps - 25% of heat demand
95 GWth
Heat pumps offer flexibility
95 GWth => heat pumps in Europes DHC - grid 2050 (assumption 3 MW in average)
Källa: Heat Roadmap Europe

14. Sweden 2050 (HRE4) HP in Sweden DHC-system 2050
DHC from HP in Sweden (TWh/år)
Sweden 2050 (HRE4)
HP in Sweden DHC-system 2050
1,2 GW installed HP-capacity => 4 GW
1000 st new HP - 3MW
4,5 TWh/år =>12 TWh/år
Less hours - full load
HP is used to offer flexibility
Installed heat capacity, Europe

15. Kvarteret Seglet, Karlstad
Build 2007, 44 apartments - Energy efficient
DHC –return - Floor heating and DHW
Production DHW:
Pre heating : Heat exchanger – DHC return
Booster HP:
Heat source : DHC return
Heat demand: 88% DHC-return, 12% el
Experience:
Economy: In Karlstad: YES but depends on the cost of DHC

16. CELSIUS – EU Project
We are a trustworthy and independent organisation that has been working with innovative heating and cooling solutions.
Proud recipient of…
They trust us!
>70 cities engaged in smart heating and cooling
>70 city supporters: research institutions, industry representatives, projects, cluster organisations & associations

17. Today Celsius…
…is a demand driven collaboration hub for efficient, integrated heating and cooling solutions supporting cities in their energy transition to carbon-neutral systems.
… gathers and shares technical, economic, social and policy expertise.
… connects members, exchange and foster innovation, leading to solutions that accelerate sustainable development in Europe and across the world.