1. Pourquoi l'intervention échoue dans les états échoués (Pas le Mali, mais ça pourrait être)
Will Reno
Professor of Political Science &
Director, Program of African Studies, Northwestern University

2. A conflict of our time

3. Migration

4. Overlapping international dimensions

5. The bigger picture: Varieties of states
Early national states in Europe guerilla rebels
Industrializing states  urban insurgency
Periphery state-builders  Maoist “liberated zones”
Periphery Patronage states  fragmented rebels
How can I explain the appearance of strong cohesive armed groups like Islamic State?

6. High Modernist State Construction

7. Failed Modernism
Ministère de la Défense, Bagdad

8. Political Risk Coups d’état in Africa, 1956-2001
42 of 48 countries (87.5%) had “military interventions” in politics
Successful coups in 30 countries (62.5%)
Multiple coups in 18 countries (37.5%)
Chance of incumbent death or exile in coups / attempts, 59.5%
Coups d’état in the Middle East,
Successful coups in 9 of 16 countries (56%)
Four countries (25%) experience protracted civil conflicts
Multiple coups in Syria (6), Iraq (4), and Algeria (3)

9. Coup Proofing
Patronage state networks infiltrate other social networks as a strategy to exercise authority Patronage politics uses violence (“creative tension”) to undermine collective action Reverse infiltration of networks of violence into the state regime; it works if the original hierarchy is maintained Disruption, often externally induced, fragments the state patronage and other social networks  civil war

10. Multiplication of Security Agencies (the official ones just scratch the surface)
Republican Guards (brother) Political Security Directorate (business partner) Public Security Police Defense Companies (Formerly uncle, replaced by brother) Gendarmerie Air Force Intelligence Directorate (Business partner) Military Intelligence Directorate General Security Directorate (Friend of president’s deceased brother-in-law) Intelligence Service (father’s cousin) Shabiha (paramilitary, established by father’s cousin & brother) Popular Committees National Defense Forces Jaysh al-Shibi

12. Conflict Trend: The rise of “non-state” armed actors
Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project,

13. The Reality of State Collapse