1. Challenges and Opportunities Hamza Kabelwa REGIONAL FORECASTING SUPPORT CENTRE, DAR ES SALAAM Washington, USA, 18-20 June 2013

2. Outline • Severe conditions experienced in the region • Roles of Regional Specialized Met. Centre • RSMC Web portal • Verification • Benefits and Challenges

3. Extreme dry conditions-Livelihoods and economic losses Vincent N. Sakwa RSMC, Nairobi

4. Heavy Rainfall – FLOODS and Landslide/Mudslide • PEOPLES’ WELL BEING (HOUSING) HousingTransport Roads and Infrastructure Destruction Landslides after heavy rains Vincent N. Sakwa RSMC, Nairobi

5. Roles of RSMC, Nairobi • It’s lead regional centre for this project, including the responsibility for the development and management of a dedicated project Web Portal; • Gives the NMHSs relevant guidance products issued from the global centre • Develops daily guidance products for NMHSs containing an interpretation of medium-range deterministic and EPS products and an assessment of alternative scenarios; • Makes available all relevant guidance products via a password-protected Web Portal and archives the products. • Participates in the provision of preparatory training; • Implemented an archival process for relevant products and data;

8. RFSC - Dar es Salaam • RFSC - Dar es Salaam has a responsibility of assisting RSMC – Nairobi in issuing Severe Weather Forecasting Guidance – for the Lake Victoria Basin and – Verification of the forecasts • TMA has established the Severe and Medium Range Weather Forecasting desk (SEMERAWF). 7 personnel (3-forecasters,2-ICT,1-PWS and 1-AgMet) • The guidance forecasts are based on available NWP products provided by – Global Centers and – the limited area models at high resolution for the Lake Victoria Basin which are UKMET and the WRF (run by TMA)

9. Global Guidance Services • Phase I: September 2012 - February, 2013 RFSC – Dar es salaam together with RSMC – Nairobi were receiving Guidance Forecasts and additional model fields from the UKMET office (UKGM). • Phase II: March 2013-To date Daily audio visual conferencing between RSMC, RFSC and UKMET

10. Link to RFSC – Dar es salaam from RSMC-Nairobi

11. RFSC – Dar es salaam web portal Link to the “WRF- Tanzania” nested NWP products for the Lake Victoria Basin

12. WRF: 3-hour accumulated ppt

13. Severe Weather Forecasting Guidance and Verification DAY ONE DAY TWO VERIFICATION

14. Wave Model for the Lake Victoria • Mwanza in Tanzania, existing facts – Search and Rescue Center in EAC – RFSC for Lake Victoria Basin – assisting RSMC Nairobi to provide Forecasting Guidance for large waves – need to be equipped with useful tools, • Running Wave Model operationally with high resolution is good idea. eg. WAVE WATCH MODEL • Lake Observations for verification • Support for the forecasting process of the large wave and strong wind events over the lake will be strengthened hence improving marine forecasts and help in the Search and Rescue processes in the region. • TMA is planning to do Data assimilation and hence improve to a large extent the forecast over the lake

15. • Accessibility to a variety of forecast products • Built capacity in the region • Objective forecasting (High res. Models, EPS) • Increased the skill of the forecasters and boosted their confidence. • Improved forecast accuracy resulted in attitude change of the public on the warnings/advisories. • Improved the lead time of providing alerts and advisories to these events. • Improved the links with their national DMCPA. Benefits of SWFDP-EA

16. Benefits of SWFDP-EA, Cont. Contributions to WMO high priorities – GFCS • Agriculture and Climate change Adaptaion – WIGOS & WIS • Verification, Data Assimilation, SWFDP defines the requirements of the observation and telecommunication for warning systems – Aeronautical Meteorology (QMS) • SIGMET – Disaster Risk Reduction -Target users (DMCPA) – Capacity Development in forecasting and Service delivery

17. FUTURE PLAN OF THE RFSC – DAR ES SALAAM TO THE SWFDP-EA • Improvement of National Observing network. – Installation of Doppler Radar at Mwanza, of which is expected to be operational by towards the end of 2013 • Data Assimilation • Wave Model for the Lake Victoria