1. Quantitative evaluation of regional precipitation forecasts using multi-dimensional remote sensing observations (QUEST) Nicole van Lipzig a, Susanne Crewell a, Felix Ament e, George Craig b, Jürgen Fischer c, Martin Hagen b, Monika Pfeifer b, Marc Schröder c, Wenchieh Yen a a Meteorologisches Institut, Universität München b DLR-Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen c Institut für Weltraumwissenschaften, Freie Universität Berlin d Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach e Meteorologisches Institut, Universität Bonn

2. GOAL: Evaluation of the clouds and precipitation in LMK Satellite observations (Free University Berlin; poster by Marc Schröder) Weather radar (Deutscher Wetterdienst; poster by Wenchieh Yen) Polarimetric Radar (DLR institute of atmospheric physics; poster by Monika Pfeifer) In-situ rain gauge data (Deutscher Wetterdienst and federal and local water authorities) Ground-based remote sensing (microwave radiometer, cloud radar, Micro Rain Radar, Wind profilers, Lidar) Atmospheric Observatories (Lindenberg, Cabauw) Data from General Observing Period (Poster by Susanne Crewell)

3. MSG, true colour images from 12 August 2004 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 UTC Spatial coverage Temporal resolution (MSG: 15 min.) Satellite observations Free University Berlin; poster by Marc Schröder Lokal Model, cloud cover

4. MSG LMK MODIS MERIS MSG, 12.08.04 MODIS, cloud coverLM Pixelsize of satellites and LM IWV cloud optical thickness Spatial resolution (up to 250m); subgrid scale variability Several products of validated atmospheric and cloud properties Automated data archiving (20 Gb / day) Near real time processing Sensor synergy Satellite observations

5. Weather radar Deutscher Wetterdienst; poster by Wenchieh Yen Detailed information on timing and location of precipitation events Spatial resolution: 1 km Temporal resolution: 5 minutes Quantitative determination of precipitation is prone to several errors

6. PI product: International precipitation composite Near-ground reflectivity in 6 classes 360x360 pixels, Spatial resolution: 4km Temporal resolution: 15 minutes Precipitation can be derived from reflectivity using Z=a·R b

7. Different polarimetric variables (Reflectivity, LDR, ZDR) give information on phase, shape, density, falling behavior of the hydrometeors Insights in Microphysics of Convective Systems Classification of Hydrometeors Better Quantitative Rain Estimates Spatial resolution: about 300m Temporal resolution: about 15 min Polarimetric Radar DLR institute of atmospheric physics; poster by Monika Pfeifer

8. SynPolRad Concept of a forward operator Polarimetric Radar Model output Nature

9. Strategy for LM evaluation within QUEST: Evaluation of long time period (months) is needed to identify systematic biases Integrated water vapor Frequency of precipitation Liquid water path* * Lokal-Modell: grid scale LWP + subgrid scale contribution according to radiation scheme August 2001September 2001 (E. van Meijgaard, KNMI) Cabauw site, daily means

10. Strategy for LM evaluation within QUEST Shallow convection cases WMO cloud modeling workshop Hamburg July 2004. Case I: Shallow convection case based on BBC (BALTEX Bridge Campaign) Cabauw observations 23 September 2001 21 May 2003 Precipitation cases 19 September 2001: frontal precipitation in the Netherlands 8 July 2004: strong precipitation over Germany 12 August 2004: strong thunderstorm over Germany Long-term evaluation Summer 2004 or 2005 General Observing Period 2007 Kick-off QPF cases

11. Shallow convection cases WMO cloud modeling workshop Hamburg July 2004. Case I: Shallow convection case based on BBC (BALTEX Bridge Campaign) Cabauw observations 23 September 2001 21 May 2003 Lipzig et al., 2005. The representation of low-level clouds in atmospheric models: Part I: Temporal evolution from ground-based remote sensing during the BALTEX Bridge Campaigns. Submitted to Atmospheric Research Schröder et al, 2005. The representation of low-level clouds in atmospheric models: Part II: Spatial distribution from satellite remote sensing during the BALTEX Bridge Campaigns. Submitted to Atmospheric Research.

12. - 440kmx440km - dx=2.8km - dt=25s - spin-up=12 hrs - length of integation=36 hrs - sst prescribed - - lateral boundaries: analyses from LM (7km) of the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) Version 3.9: ice and rain included as prognostic variables Convective cloud scheme switched off Felix Ament 1. Lokal Modell domain for shallow convection (WMO) cases

13. Crewell et al, 2005 BALTEX BRIDGE Campaign (BBC) Meteorological tower Satellite remote sensingradarRegional network Ground based remote sensingAircraft

14. Comparison with Integrated Profiling Technique Main conclusion: LM underestimates the lifetime of clouds but overestimate the liquid water content

15. 2. Lokal Modell domain for precipitation cases 19 September 2001: frontal precipitation in the Netherlands 8 July 2004: strong precipitation over Germany 12 August 2004: strong thunderstorm over Germany Identical to WMO-settings except for model domain 900km x 1100km

16. Synoptic situation on 12 Aug 2004 ECMWF Mean sea level pressure 12UTC18UTC 6UTC0UTC

17. Synoptic situation on 12 Aug 2004 MODIS overpass 10:55UTC Cloud cover Cloud optical thickness Marc Schröder

18. Cloud cover 12 Aug 2004 0:00 UTC MSGLM Marc Schröder

19. Cloud cover 12 Aug 2004 1:00 UTC MSGLM Marc Schröder

20. Cloud cover 12 Aug 2004 2:00 UTC MSGLM Marc Schröder

21. Cloud cover 12 Aug 2004 3:00 UTC MSGLM Marc Schröder

22. Cloud cover 12 Aug 2004 4:00 UTC MSGLM Marc Schröder

23. Cloud cover 12 Aug 2004 5:00 UTC MSGLM Marc Schröder

24. Cloud cover 12 Aug 2004 6:00 UTC MSGLM Marc Schröder

25. Cloud cover 12 Aug 2004 7:00 UTC MSGLM Marc Schröder

26. Cloud cover 12 Aug 2004 8:00 UTC MSGLM Marc Schröder

27. Cloud cover 12 Aug 2004 9:00 UTC MSGLM Marc Schröder

28. Cloud cover 12 Aug 2004 10:00 UTC MSGLM Marc Schröder

29. Cloud cover 12 Aug 2004 11:00 UTC MSGLM Marc Schröder

30. Cloud cover 12 Aug 2004 12:00 UTC MSGLM Marc Schröder

31. Cloud cover 12 Aug 2004 13:00 UTC MSGLM Marc Schröder

32. Cloud cover 12 Aug 2004 14:00 UTC MSGLM Marc Schröder

33. Cloud cover 12 Aug 2004 15:00 UTC MSGLM Marc Schröder

34. Cloud cover 12 Aug 2004 16:00 UTC MSGLM Marc Schröder

35. Cloud cover 12 Aug 2004 17:00 UTC MSGLM Marc Schröder

36. Cloud cover 12 Aug 2004 18:00 UTC MSGLM Marc Schröder

37. Cloud cover 12 Aug 2004 19:00 UTC MSGLM Marc Schröder

38. Cloud cover 12 Aug 2004 20:00 UTC MSGLM Marc Schröder

39. Cloud cover 12 Aug 2004 21:00 UTC MSGLM Marc Schröder

40. Cloud cover 12 Aug 2004 22:00 UTC MSGLM Marc Schröder

41. Cloud cover 12 Aug 2004 23:00 UTC MSGLM Marc Schröder

42. Quantitative measures to identify biases in cloud forecasts For more: Poster Marc Schröder 12 Aug 2004 hourly MSG/LM fields

43. 12 Aug 2004 DWD radar international composite LM Wenchieh Yen

44. DWD radar / LM at 18:00 UTC München Wenchieh Yen

45. DWD radar / LM at 21:00 UTC München Wenchieh Yen

46. Polarimetric radar 12 Aug 2004 Martin Hagen

47. Monika Pfeifer Poldirad (PPI: 1 deg) 17:01 UTC SynPolRad (30m) 21:00 UTC

48. Monika Pfeifer Poldirad (RHI) 17:01 UTC SynPolRad 21:00 UTC

49. LM Brightband strongest signal Z up to 60 dBZ in the brightband Poldirad Two cores related to graupel and hail Z up to 60 dBZ throughout cell Another example (see poster Monika Pfeifer): 9 July 2002 Polarimetric radar foreward operator

50. Summary BALTEX Bridge Campaign cases have been used to evaluate shallow cloud conditions in LM Integrations for precipitation cases have been performed Quantitative measures for evaluation using satellite observations are under development Integrations with graupel scheme will be performed for evaluation using Polarimetric radar Posters will be on the QUEST web site: Marc Schröder: Satellite observations Wenchieh Yen: DWD Weather radar Monika Pfeifer: Polarimetric Radar Susanne Crewell: General Observing Period 2007 (GOP)