1. Site selection of surplus water formation adversely influencing cereal production on the Bihar plain J. Tamás University of Debrecen IV. ALPS-ADRIA SCIENTIFIC WORKSHOP 28 February - 5 March 2005., Portorož, Slovenia

2. Applicable for Regional planning Scale 100000-500000 There no available actual data sources for local farm scale 10000 - 25000 EU-CARPE 2006-2008

3. The potential effects of the agro ecological zonality and the agricultural supporting system on more than 5 million ha agricultural land Integrated profit-oriented farming on good quality lands. (app.. 1-1.5 M ha) NATURA 2000 project protection an special technologies on the natural- protected areas. (app.. 2 M ha)

4. What will happen with near 1 M ha land, on which partly grain production will take place? Which’s quality is not the best Do not have high environmental value There is no knowledge and capital for a shift in production Agriculture has social aspects, as a retentive factor for rural people. For economic or ecological reasons, it do not have alternatives (energetic biomass-, or bio-production

5. Agric. zone Natur. Zone Trans. Zone Forest. Zone Remote Sensing and Agricultural Crop Monitoring of Hajdu-Bihar County

6. Aim: Improving the grain productive, and the general agro ecological potential of transitional (middle quality) lands Grain production is most profitable on best quality lands Water management is one of the main limiting factors on less quality lands, which affects several other factors also. This less quality lands must be located on region and field scale to redesign land use practice

7. Experimental sites were covering Bihar Plain (800 km 2 ) that was completed with the Szolnok-Túri Plain (423 km 2 ), the scale of data was 1:10000). at around Karcag city. Criteria for region selection: Great proportion of transitional areas Regularly flood risk and inland water endangered Extremely flat area, where the selection of lands with bad water management requires special technology Szolnok-Túri Plain (423 km 2 ), Bihar Plain (800 km 2 ) Flood risk map of TIVIZIG Scale 500000

8. The applied water surplus model factors were the following: Infiltration factor (K – m/d) (categories: 1, > 0,15; 2, 0,1 - 0,15; 3, 0,05 - 0,1; 4, 0,01 - 0,05; 5, < 0,01), Maximal water capacity (VK – mm) (categories: 1, 400 – 450; 2, 350 – 400; 3, 300 – 350; 4, 250 – 300; 5, 150 – 250), Convexity (D) (categories: 1, 0,3), Land use (F) (categories: 1, forest; 2, horticulture, orchard; 3, arable land; 4, arable land, with annual culture; 5, grassland, meadow, wet land), Groundwater level (M - cm) (categories: 1, > 150; 2, 125- 150; 3, 125-100; 4, 100-75; 5, < 75).

9. Data sources Time series data (1940-2003) at the Szolnok-Túri-Plain ( 423 km 2 ). 103 year long precipitation 51 year long groundwater level data sources was statistically analyzed. Soil maps The scale of data was 1:10000 Thematic maps of land use (Landsat TM) The scale of data was 1:10000 Improved DTM vert. accur. below 0.5 m

10. Risk mapping model of surplus water on Szolnok-Turi plan Classification of Landsat TM 21/05/ 2000 (saturated soils indicated by blue colour, model results by white polygons Karcag DTM Biomass – green colour

11. Water capacity of soils Convexity Depth of groundwater Land use Hydraulic conductivity Result map Classified map Pálfai’s map Moderate risk 22% High risk 15% No risk MCA cmp1cmp2 Var% 85.196.03 factors Hydraulic conductivity 0.97-0.09 Water capacity of soils 0.92-0.18 Convexity of DTM0.910.14 Land use0.9-0.26 Depth of groundwater 0.880.41 Risk map of surplus water on Bihar plain

12. Conclusions The surplus water of the over 1200 km 2 large observing area was analyzed by a high resolution GIS method Intervention plans and water surplus protection strategy refinement in connecting with regional active and passive surplus water management are allowed by the results in the given area. Cereal growing risk can be efficiently reduced by our GIS method, using technology changing or land use modification those areas, where water surplus risk was high.

13. Thank you for your attention IV. ALPS-ADRIA SCIENTIFIC WORKSHOP 28 February - 5 March 2005., Portorož, Slovenia