1. Dan Bălteanu Institute of Geography Romanian Academy,
ROMANIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCE
GLOBAL CHANGE ATLAS OF THE EU STRATEGY FOR THE DANUBE REGION – A TOOL FOR THE STAKEHOLDERS IN THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS
Wolfram Mauser
Ludwig-Maximilians University, Munich
Dan Bălteanu
Institute of Geography
Romanian Academy,
February 18, 2013

2. Pillars of the Danube Strategy: Connectivity Environmental protection
Bridge over Danube, Apolodor din Damasc ( AD),
Source: Istoria Romanilor, vol II, 2001
Pillars of the Danube Strategy:
Connectivity
Environmental protection
Economic development
Strengthening the governance within the Danube Region

3. Global Change Atlas of the Danube Basin - Past, present, future -
Main purpose:
To reflect the current and future situation of the Danube Basin within a global change perspective
To be a tool for decision makers from Danube countries to respond to the challenges of a changing environment
To build a product responsive to the local, national and regional stakeholders’ requirements and to assure visibility of the Strategy
To clearly distinguish the threats and opportunities for the development of the Danubian community
To identify critical areas in terms of environmental degradation, industrial decline, poverty and conflicts

4. Keywords of the Atlas Global environmental change Climate change
Environmental risks
Land use / Land cover change
Human Dimension of global change (population, economic growth, urbanization, globalization) and human security
Regional impacts of global environmental change
- Extreme events and natural hazards
- Agriculture and forestry
Water resources (water balance / river discharge / groundwater recharge / snow cover), hydropower energy and water consumption
Summer and winter tourism and cultural identity
Transport
Social and Economic Adaptation strategies
System of indicators for adaptation (exposure and sensitivity indicators)
Regional adaptive capacity to global change
Simulation tools for integrating different (sub)models of various disciplines and their interactions
Three-dimensional approach: spatial factor, time factor and decision-making factor
Equity concerns, institutional arrangements and governance for sustainability
Food security
(Environmental) conflicts between upstream users and downstream users
New technologies and innovation
Sustainable management of resources, infrastructure development, and development of communities
decentralized, self-organization, inclusive of non-state actors from industry and non-governmental organization to scientists,
cross-cutting research themes of global sustainability

5. INTEGRATIVE METHODS, TECHNIQUES AND SCENARIOS FOR THE DANUBE REGION STRATEGY
Regional assessment of present-day situation and of climate change impacts and potential adaptation strategies
Methodological approach will be based on DANUBIA system developed for the Upper Danube Atlas– a flexible framework to couple the various submodels of different disciplines with the help of the latest software tools

6. INTEGRATIVE METHODS, TECHNIQUES AND SCENARIOS FOR THE DANUBE BASIN STRATEGY
It will be based on social scenarios developed in GLOWA-Danube project – social megatrends from SinusSociovision, referring to the situation of the society as a whole and its change in the future.
Also, there will be used methods applied in several FP6 and FP7 projects – e.g. delineating homogenous regions in terms of their endogenous adaptive potential based on cluster and factor analyses

7. E Einleitende Beiträge 1 Natur- und Sozialraum
Inhalt
E Einleitende Beiträge
1 Natur- und Sozialraum
2 Simulationsmodelle der Teilmodelle
3 Szenarien und Ergebnisse
Impressum
Glossar
Prof. W. Mauser – coordinator
University of Munchen

8. Aspects of integration in GLOWA-Danube
Upper Danube Atlas
Aspects of integration in GLOWA-Danube

9. Model of the scenario-based support system DANUBIA
Upper Danube Atlas
Model of the scenario-based support system DANUBIA

10. SOCIOECONOMIC VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE - CLAVIER PROJECT
CLAVIER APPROACH OF VULNERABILITY:
Economic Vulnerability = f (Exposure, Economic Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity)
High Regional Adaptive Capacity reduces Regional Vulnerability
The analysis is based on a series of exposure and sensitivity indicators relevant in determining the adaptive capacity of a region to climate change
Source: The IPCC 3rd Assessment Report, cited by Stern, 2007
CLAVIER Economic Vulnerability Assessment complies with the IPCC approach on Vulnerability to Climate Change

11. ENDOGENOUS REGIONAL ADAPTIVE CAPACITY – ERAC METHODOLOGY
Data was analyzed using 2 statistical methods: Cluster Analysis and PCA
8 clusters at NUTS III level
EUROSTAT INDICATORS & INDEXES: structural variables (e.g. sectoral employment, regional GDP, value added shares) spatial variables (accessibility, regional employment shares)

12. ENDOGENOUS REGIONAL ADAPTIVE CAPACITY – ERAC RESULTS

13. enviroGRIDS
try to summarize the project through a relatively complex graph.
Observational data exists in many international and national organizations and these organizations started making available the important information through the GEO System of Systems (GEOSS)
More observational data is exist in regional database. This data should also be made available to the scientific community through GEOSS
A lot of environmental and remote sensing data will be soon stored on the GRID and will also be reachable through GEO
Once this data is visible and hopefully available, it can be much more easily used by important organization such as the Black Sea Commission (BSC) and the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) to analyze it and communicate to the public and decision makers about the state of the Black Sea and the Danube river.
A clearing house will be created specially for the Black Sea Catchment to fin more rapidly what data exist
All this information will nourish the Observation Systems that we will develop to communicate with decision makers and the public through several media. 13 13

14. IMPACT2C Stakeholder Workshop
- Significance for Romanian Researches
Dan Bălteanu
13 Nov 2012 – IIASA

15. PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS
The Atlas is an interdisciplinary tool which will bring policy – relevant solution – oriented results in the main four pillars of EU Strategy for the Danube Region;
The Atlas will be a dynamic digital document at NUTS 3 level based on EUROSTAT data, INSPIRE and several EU strategic and thematic directives;
The “GLOBAL CHANGE ATLAS OF THE EU STRATEGY FOR THE DANUBE REGION” will provide (Spatial) Scientific Services (SSS) for a wide variety of socially and environmentally pressing issues raised by global change in the Danube Region’s countries and will support bottom-up initiatives.
The Atlas will provide support to a broad range of stakeholders in order to ensure a balanced commitment, based on knowledge, of all the relevant priority areas of the EU Strategy.