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Zak Brown UBS Private Wealth Management Current Opportunities in MLPs
The Errico Group June 2012 Zak Brown
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Current Opportunities in MLPs
What's occurred? Master Limited Partnerships currently offer a unique buying opportunity given their mean reversion behavior to various other yield products – namely Treasuries and Baa bonds. Spreads today have widened dramatically in response to risk aversion that is concerned with both credit markets and commodity prices. MLPs are yielding a premium not seen since the credit crisis in 2008 despite a much healthier environment. What's Different versus 2008? MLPs have deleveraged and successfully refinanced the cost of capital Credit markets are functioning Current issues are political in nature and not questions of corporate solvency Distribution growth is healthy regardless of commodity weakness & cyclical slowdowns 1
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Comparative Returns through Market Dislocations
12 Month Forward Returns when Breeching 400bp over Treasuries: September 9th, Beginning of Lehman Collapse AMZ Index % SPX Index % MSCI World % May 25th, 2010… Beginning of Greek Default AMZ Index % SPX Index % MSCI World % Peak to Trough Declines: October 11th, March 5th, 2009 AMZ Index % SPX Index % MSCI World % Comparative Returns through Market Dislocations 2
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MLPs Outperform in a Recession
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10yr Total Return Analysis vs. S&P 500 & Ten Year Treasury
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MLP Relative Value MLPs currently trade 444bp
wider than 10yr Treasuries… This gap represents a significant dislocation relative to the 10yr average of 320bp… MLPs which typically trade in-line on a yield basis with Baa bonds have widened over that asset class by 102.9bp 6
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Low Correlation to Broad Market and Fixed Income 7
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Distribution & Long Term Performance
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aUBS Master Limited Partnerships
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Overview
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Investment Thesis aUBS Master Limited Partnerships • • • •
What are MLP's? Structured as a limited partnership, not a corporation Own, maintain and operate energy infrastructure in North America Issue units that are traded on public exchanges Generate high free cash flow paid out quarterly to investors Income and growth potential Approximately $285 billion market cap as of 3/1/2011 Why own MLP's? Unmatched total return value proposition Attractive yield Portfolio diversification A lower risk (beta) way to invest in energy Resilient business model during periods of economic weakness Asset class is under-owned by institutions MLP Description • Structure - An MLP is a publically traded partnership with assets, growth characteristics and risk tolerance levels that are different from traditional corporations. The units or shares are registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and trade on a major exchange, generally the New York Stock Exchange. An MLP consists of a General Partner and Limited Partners. Such an entity can qualify as an MLP as long as 90% of its income is qualified as being derived from the transportation, storage, or processing of "natural resource" products. • Taxation - The major difference between an MLP and a traditional corporation is its pass-through tax treatment, which exempts the MLP from taxes at the entity level and allows it to pass the taxes on to the investors of the MLP. The individual investor benefits because in most instances, the distributions that are received are considered return of capital and therefore, the taxes due on that portion of income may be deferred until the MLP is sold. • Valuation - Primary drivers of value are the perceived growth rate in cash distributions and the cash flow coverage of the total units outstanding. MLPs that have the best opportunity to internally grow or acquire assets have historically been rewarded higher per share valuations than those MLPs whose growth is perceived as limited. Growth in assets usually translates into growth in an MLP's cash flow and consequently, growth in its ability to increase distributions. • Function - As a yield instrument, MLPs have often been compared to bonds and regarded as an attractive investment option for investors seeking steady income. More recently, many MLPs have evolved into growth-oriented investments with the sponsor or General Partner using acquisitions to drive growth. aUBS Master Limited Partnerships 10
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