1. Labour Force Survey Boukje Janssen, 16-05-2013

2. Contents LFS Design LFS Figures Monthly Estimates with Time Series Models Redesign LFS Remote Acces Files > future developments Labour Force Survey 1

3. 2 Panel Design LFS

4. Labour Force Survey 3 Quarterly Estimates Respons 15-64: E,d,c,b,a ~ 80 thousand persons

5. Labour Force Survey 4 Yearly Estimates Average of 4 estimates of ~ 80 thousand persons

6. Labour Force Survey 5 Yearly Estimates per Wave Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 Wave 1 Web/Tel/F2F ABCDEFGHIJKL 2Tel ×abcdefghijk 3 ××abcdefghij 4 ×××abcdefghi 5 ××××abcdefgh Respons 15-64: c,d,e,f ~ 55 thousand persons

7. Labour Force Survey 6 Quarterly Flow Estimates Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 Wave 1 Web/Tel/F2F ABCDEFGHIJKL 2Tel ×abcdefghijk 3 ××abcdefghij 4 ×××abcdefghi 5 ××××abcdefgh Respons 15-64: e,d,c,b ~ 55 thousand persons

8. Yearly Flow Estimates Labour Force Survey 7 Respons 15-64: a,b,c,d ~ 55 thousand persons

9. Monthly Estimates Labour Force Survey 8 Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 Wave 1 Web/Tel/F2F ABCDEFGHIJKL 2Tel ×abcdefghijk 3 ××abcdefghij 4 ×××abcdefghi 5 ××××abcdefgh Five series of estimates

10. Structural Time Series Model What we do with STM:  Improve estimates with sample data from the past  Explicit modelling of panel bias  Modelling autocorrelation between waves Labour Force Survey 9 Montht-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t Wave 1t-4 t-3 t-2 t-1 t 2t-7 t-6 t-5 t-4 t-3 3t-10 t-9 t-8 t-7 t-6 4t-13 t-12 t-11 t-10 t-9 5t-16 t-15 t-14 t-13 t-12

11. Monthly Estimates by STM Labour Force Survey 10 = Monthly estimates STM (trend and including seasonal effect) GREG estimates each month each wave (panel) Bias Sampling error (variance, autocorrelation) + - -

12. Monthly Figures Labour Force Survey 11

13. Consistency Labour Force Survey 12 Employed and unemployed labour force: Monthly estimates = Quarterly estimates = Yearly estimates = Flow estimates (start- and end-point)

14. Redesign LFS Labour Force Survey 13 Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 Wave 1 F2F ABCDEFGHIJKL 2Tel ×abcdefghijk 3 ××abcdefghij 4 ×××abcdefghi 5 ××××abcdefgh Before 2010:

15. Redesign LFS Labour Force Survey 14 2010 - 2012 Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 Wave 1 F2F/Tel ABCDEFGHIJKL 2Tel ×abcdefghijk 3 ××abcdefghij 4 ×××abcdefghi 5 ××××abcdefgh

16. Redesign LFS Labour Force Survey 15 2012 - … Year Y-1 Year Y Year Y+1 Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4 Wave 1 Web/F2F/Tel ABCDEFGHIJKL 2Tel ×abcdefghijk 3 ××abcdefghij 4 ×××abcdefghi 5 ××××abcdefgh

17. Remote Acces Files > future developments Timeliness (quarterly) More comparable with files for CBS users e.g. classifications for publication Linked to other sources (registrations etc.) Labour Force Survey 16

18. Questions ??