1. PREDICTING THE FUTURE OF BROADCASTING
Philip Laven
Director, Technical Department
European Broadcasting Union
ACTS Concertation Meeting, Brussels
24 November 1998

2. TECHNOLOGY IS ACCELERATING
Dates of introduction (approximate)
 CD
 Mini-Disc
 stereo LP
 78 rpm record
 DAT
Music
 LP record
 audio cassette
 DCC
 NICAM
 colour TV
 Satellite TV TV
 TV
 VCR
 DVB
 teletext
 PALplus
Radio
 AM radio
 FM radio
 DAB
 FM stereo

3. CONVERGENCE or DIVERGENCE? Broadcasters “Internet” services Broadcast
delivery
Internet

4. COMPETING DELIVERY SYSTEMS
There will be numerous competing delivery mechanisms
Success in the consumer market will depend on:
the range of features
ease of use
cost of equipment
cost of use
content (quantity and quality)
Attractive content is the most important factor in the success of any multimedia product

5. BROADCASTING ADVANTAGES
delivers high quality video & audio services simultaneously to millions of users
huge installed base of receivers
portable and mobile use, especially for radio
easy to use, cheap hardware
DISADVANTAGES
spectrum scarcity has limited the number of broadcasters (but this problem will be eased by the introduction of digital broadcasting)
little opportunity for interactivity

6. EVEN MORE BROADCASTING
Digital technology will result in an explosive growth in the number of broadcast services
free-to-air
subscription
near-video-on-demand
pay-per-view
Europe is moving to digital broadcasting:
DAB (Digital Audio Broadcasting)
DVB (Digital Video Broadcasting)

7. ENGULFED BY THE DIGITAL WAVE?

8. OVER-AIR BROADCASTS TO PCs
Broadcasters
Broadcast
delivery

9. OVER-AIR BROADCASTS TO PCs
Some PCs are fitted with TV cards to permit reception of analogue TV broadcasts
This feature will become more common:
“50% of PCs sold in the USA in the year 2000 will be capable of receiving digital TV broadcasts” (Microsoft/Compaq/Intel prediction - June 1997)
This represents an expanding market for normal broadcast TV services (analogue & digital)
It could also permit important new forms of broadcast multimedia services, using the processing power and storage capability of PCs

10. TV ACCESS TO THE INTERNET
Broadcasters
“Internet” services
Broadcast
delivery
Internet

11. TV ACCESS TO THE INTERNET
A special set-top box (e.g. WebTV) can give access to the Web on a standard TV set
Web pages must be magnified and re-formatted to ensure legibility on the TV screen:
many graphics cannot be accurately displayed
only part of page is visible without scrolling
Advantages:
ease of use and low cost
(if you buy an optional keyboard)
Disadvantages
“poor person’s Internet” with limited capability

12. SEPARATE WORLDS? Broadcasters “Internet” services Broadcast Internet
delivery
Internet

13. INTERNET
ADVANTAGES
offers interactive multimedia services, including reasonable quality audio
two-way communication enables a multiplicity of content providers
world-wide network, apparently “free” to users
DISADVANTAGES
expensive equipment is needed, currently limited to <10% of European homes
it suffers from severe congestion
it cannot yet offer video services of useful quality
it can be difficult to use

14. INTUITIVE INTERFACES?
Computer enthusiasts praise “intuitive” GUIs (Graphical User Interfaces)
Undoubtedly, GUIs are a great advance on the MS-DOS prompt …. C:\>
But there is still a long way to go
In Windows 95, when you want to STOP using the computer, you must click on
Above all, the next generation of home terminals must be easy to use

15. PREDICTIONS …... INCUMBENTS BEWARE!
Internal memo, Western Union, 1876
This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value for us.
HM Warner, Warner Bros, 1927
"Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?”
INCUMBENTS BEWARE!
Some broadcasters think that the Internet has nothing to do with broadcasting!

16. REPLACEMENT TECHNOLOGIES
Nevertheless, we would be equally foolish to believe that all new technologies will automatically replace all old technologies
Radio broadcasting has not been replaced by television
The cinema has not been replaced by television or by video-cassettes
In fact, both radio and the cinema have gone from strength to strength – despite intense competition from the newer technologies

17. IN THE BEGINNING
Only 3 years ago, streaming audio arrived on the Internet in the form of RealAudio® 1.0
It claimed to offer “AM quality” sound, but the quality was very poor and variable
At that time, most broadcasters felt that “audio over the Internet” was neither a threat nor an opportunity - one said:
“listeners used to FM and CDs will not tolerate the poor quality offered by the Internet”

18. EVOLUTION OF STREAMING AUDIO
Audio quality is now much improved because of:
new algorithms for audio compression and for handling of transmission errors
14.4 kbit/s modems being superseded by 28.8, 33.6 or, even, 56 kbit/s modems
More than 40 million copies of RealAudio software have been downloaded over the Internet

19. DOES IT MAKE SENSE?
Does audio broadcasting via the Internet make sense for broadcasters or for listeners?
Although there are millions of potential listeners on the Internet, typical audio servers can support only simultaneous listeners
Would you spend $80,000 on a new radio transmitter to serve 200 people?
The Internet can offer audio-on-demand services, in addition to re-broadcasting of radio services
However, there is a copyright problem because of the global nature of the Internet

20. VIDEO OVER THE INTERNET
Low bit rates are possible through reduction of:
picture size
quality (resolution, colour fidelity, S/N, etc.)
number of frames per second
Video over the Internet uses all these techniques
typically 1/16 of full screen
poor image quality
poor portrayal of motion
High quality, full-screen, full-motion video requires high bit rates
© NASA

21. DIGITAL COMPRESSION
MPEG-1 compression at 100 kbit/s gives poor picture quality:
even when used at 240 x 160 pixels (~10% of full screen)
even at 6 frames per second (25% of original)
Much better algorithms will become available in the next 5 years:
0.5 Mbit/s will give reasonable quality
but 2 Mbit/s will remain a difficult target for full-screen high quality video on ALL types of source material

22. BROADCASTING VIA THE INTERNET
Many broadcasters already use the Web to offer:
programme-related information
audio services (quality now OK)
video services (quality unacceptable)
Some of Europe’s most popular web sites are operated by broadcasters
Broadcasters are attracted by the global reach of the Internet:
real benefits for international broadcasters
even little stations can be “global” players
listeners can hear their favourite radio station wherever they are

23. ECONOMICS OF THE WEB There is no clear “business model”
Almost all web sites lose lots of money
they generate little or no income
large web sites are expensive to develop and to keep up-to-date
You may become a “victim of your own success”
if your web site becomes very successful, you will have to pay for more hardware (e.g. servers) and for greater bandwidth

24. MICRO-TRANSACTIONS
The Web will be transformed by “e-commerce” which will allow secure on-line transactions
At present, handling charges (e.g. on credit cards) outweigh the cost of many services
Future developments will permit low cost “micro-transactions”
Content providers will be able to charge users, for example:
$0.01 per each page viewed
$0.10 per hour of audio-on-demand
$3.00 per hour of video-on-demand

25. FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS
The Internet will undoubtedly develop to offer a wide range of enhanced services, including good quality video and audio
However, unlike broadcasting, the Internet:
is not well suited to simultaneous delivery of programme material to large audiences
cannot offer interactive services to mobiles and portables (without consuming huge amounts of the radio spectrum)

26. Every washing machine will have an Internet address!
GROWTH OF THE INTERNET
Every washing machine will
have an Internet address!
Take-off around 1995?
Source: Network Wizards (

27. Source: Network Wizards (http://www.nw.com)
GROWTH OF THE INTERNET
Factor of 2
every 12
months
Source: Network Wizards (

28. Source: Nua Ltd. (http://www.nua.ie)
INTERNET PENETRATION
Iceland
Finland
Norway
Sweden
Denmark
Source: Nua Ltd. (

29. BROADCASTING & THE INTERNET
The Internet will become very important for broadcasters as a new delivery mechanism:
for broadcast services
for on-demand services
for international audiences

30. MY PREDICTION
Within 10 years, 50% of homes in Western Europe will be connected to the Internet
most will also be able to receive on-demand video services – even if the quality does not quite meet the goal of “broadcast quality”
Is this prediction wildly optimistic?
If true, it implies that the remaining 50% would still be dependent on traditional broadcasting
Broadcasting will remain ubiquitous (~ 100%)

31. BROADCAST DELIVERY OF INTERNET
Broadcasters
“Internet” services
Broadcast
delivery
Internet

32. BROADCAST DELIVERY OF INTERNET
In the USA, some broadcasters transmit Web pages on spare capacity on analogue TV services
In Europe, this spare capacity has already been used for teletext
Due to the limited capacity, the service includes a limited number of pages (e.g. 100) selected from popular Web sites
Pre-selection of Web pages limits the usefulness of this service compared with full Internet access
Better services could be included on digital TV or DAB services, where more capacity will be available, or on dedicated DVB channels

33. INTERACTIVE BROADCAST SERVICES
Some operators dedicate a DVB satellite channel to deliver Internet content at Mbit/s, using telephones as a return channel
Such services offer full interactivity with download speeds of “up to 0.5 Mbit/s” per user
However, this implies a maximum of 80 simultaneous users across the entire footprint of the satellite (typically the whole of Europe)

34. PUSH TECHNOLOGY
“Push” services (e.g. Pointcast) delivered over the Internet allow users to specify their interests:
news items about specific subjects
share prices for a particular company
a football team
weather in certain cities
The user’s computer periodically checks if any relevant new information is available, and downloads it for display

35. PUSH = BROADCASTING? “Push” technology is:
similar to broadcasting in that many users receive the same information (almost) simultaneously
different from broadcasting in that users only receive their “narrowcast” information
Works poorly with “dial-up” connections to the Internet, but works well with “persistent” connections (or broadcast delivery)
Storage at the receiving terminal is essential

36. PRICE TRENDS Random-access memory Factor of 2 in 18 months
Hard disks

37. MOORE’S LAW
Moore’s Law predicts that price will reduce OR performance will improve by a factor of 2 every 18 months
A factor of 2 every 18 months is equivalent to:
a factor of 10 every 5 years
a factor of 100 every 10 years
These sustained long-term trends are responsible for transforming the computer industry
Moore’s Law can be applied to a wide range of electronic components - not just silicon devices

38. STORAGE WILL BE VERY CHEAP
Storage is unusual in radios and TVs, mainly because of cost constraints
RAM:
US $2 per MB today
US $0.20 per MB in 5 years
US $0.02 per MB in 10 years
Hard discs:
US $35 per GB today
US $3.50 per GB in 5 years
US $0.35 per GB in 10 years

39. DIGITAL AUDIO BROADCASTING (DAB)
The data capacity of a DAB channel is 1.2 Mbit/s, but < 20% will be available for non-audio services
A 64 kbit/s channel can deliver:
28.8 MB in 1 hour
1 MB in 2 minutes
A 28.8 kbit/s modem used to access Internet services usually delivers far less than 28.8 kbit/s
Data services delivered via DAB will achieve continuous throughput at the nominal data rate (i.e. 64 kbit/s = 64 kbit/s) to mobile receivers

40. LOCAL STORAGE “Intelligent” storage in the receiver would allow:
sophisticated interactive multimedia information services, continuously up-dated and instantly available
TV viewers to “order” a programme to be recorded by a single click during a trailer
automatic indexing of recorded programmes
The “data carousel” concept wastes bandwidth, whereas local storage is much more efficient
Local storage (and push technology) enables broadcasters to “break free of the constraints of linear broadcasting”

41. BROADCASTING & THE INTERNET
The Internet is a “powerhouse of technology” (such as streaming audio/video, downloadable software, push technology)
These technologies require user terminals with considerable processing power and local storage
However, broadcasting standards minimise the complexity of receivers (so as to reduce costs)
this constraint will become unnecessary because of the falling costs of computer processing and storage
Broadcasters will embrace the Internet, ADOPTING and ADAPTING its technologies to benefit from the advantages of broadcast delivery

42. AN IDEALISTIC “S-CURVE”
Reluctant purchasers
Early
adopters
Transition to mass market

43. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas & Forbes magazine
REAL S-CURVES
Electricity
Telephone
Air conditioning
Car
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas & Forbes magazine

44. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas & Forbes magazine
SPEED OF PROGRESS
Air conditioning
Electricity
Telephone
VCR
Car
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas & Forbes magazine

45. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas & Forbes magazine
FASTER PROGRESS?
Radio
Colour TV
VCR
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas & Forbes magazine

46. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas & Forbes magazine
FROM 10% TO 90%
Colour TV
Radio
Microwave
VCR
Telephone
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas & Forbes magazine

47. IF YOU ARE VERY, VERY LUCKY ….
10% after 5 years
90% after
20 years
60% after
10 years

48. BSkyB is now one of the most profitable companies in the UK
A CONUNDRUM
In 1989, 6 months after the start of the Sky TV service on Astra, the following question was posed in the UK:
Q. What is the difference between Sky TV and the Loch Ness Monster?
A. More people have seen the Loch Ness Monster
BSkyB is now one of the most profitable companies in the UK

49. TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS Technology is evolving rapidly and unpredictably
But the trends are PREDICTABLE
Over a period of 10 years, performance OR price of technologies will change by a factor of
100 x performance (at same price)
0.01 x cost (at same performance)
We must take these trends into account:
when planning new types of service
when setting standards
Have this been done well in the past?

50. EMPHASIS ON SOFTWARE In the past, R&D effort has concentrated on:
modulation & coding schemes for the broadcast signals (and for “return” channels)
compression of audio and video signals
In the future, software will replace hardware
MPEG-2 is the last of the hardware “dinosaurs”
all future systems (including modulation schemes) should be based on software
downloadable software can help to cope with advancing technologies

51. IMPORTANT TOPICS APIs (applications programming interfaces)
Encouraging free trade (avoidance of “gateways”)
Future-proofing systems (and investments)
migration paths from “new” technologies to “newer” technologies
Services/applications that are independent of transport media (e.g. scaleable technology)
Mobility
Applications of e-commerce
Copyright protection
Metadata (both for use in production phase and for use by consumers)

52. THE WINNERS?  Broadcasters “Internet” services ? Internet Broadcast
delivery
 
  ? 

53. EVOLUTION OF BROADCASTING
Stage 1
A few services (analogue)
Stage 2
Many services (cable, satellite, digital)
Stage 3
Multimedia services (broadcasting, Internet)
Stage 4
On-demand services (server-based or local storage)

54. CONCLUSIONS
Broadcasters (content providers) will become agnostic about delivery systems
Traditional broadcasting will remain ubiquitous, but broadcasters will use the Internet (and its successors) to deliver new types of service
Broadcasting plus local storage will be a powerful combination
Too many debates on the future of broadcasting concentrate on delivery systems:
a few customers are motivated by technology, but most are attracted by “content”
Not enough debate about content creation

55. AND FINALLY … Georges Pompidou: There are 3 roads to ruin: women
gambling
technicians
The most pleasant is with women
The quickest is with gambling
But the surest is with technicians