1. Inspiring change for people and the environment Green Deal for Real: Key Considerations for projects Stuart Hay Senior Consultant

2. We work with public and third sector organisations, schools, communities and businesses to… Inspire and enable action to reduce CO 2, waste and fuel poverty Build confidence and skills to make sustainable choices Share our knowledge and learn from others to maximise our impact Deliver the best possible service creatively and professionally About Changeworks …and we focus our expertise on energy, waste and the sustainable use of resources

3. Consultancy services Low-energy retrofit projects –Energy efficiency –Renewables Technical support –Hard-to-treat housing Energy & financial analysis –EPCs, SAP, NHER –SHQS / EES compliance –Stock modelling Feasibility studies Tenant guidance

4. The Green Deal For Real Context The Carbon Heart Assessment Tool Examples exploring issues around the Green Deal in terms of assessing projects Some final thoughts on where we are

5. Why Retrofit Statutory target CO2ComfortFuel billsFinance Maintain property Project Drivers

6. The Green Deal

7. Market conditions / competition / uptake / innovation Economies of scale (social housing) Costs of finance (market) Inflation Fees and project management Hidden additional costs Re-decoration Decanting / voids Age and value of existing assets Contingencies Capital costs

8. Actual costs

9. Software Predictions (SAP) Real world –Actual user behaviour vs. software  Rebound effect  Comfort level  Occupancy pattern –Actual performance of measure vs. software  Installation  Maintenance  Operation Fuel price increases Inflation Savings

10. Home Energy Analysis Retrofit Tool (HEART) Calculates: –Capital costs –Energy savings –Carbon savings –CO 2 per £ spent –SAP and NHER ratings –SHQS compliance –Fuel poverty indicators –Green Deal/ECO finance –Analysis of retrofit scenarios –Investment recommendations Project assessment tools – Carbon HEART

11. Full, detailed analysis of investment options –For all stock –For each archetype –For each sub-archetype Also analyses impact of numerous variables not recognised by other energy software –Householder heating patterns –Repayment interest rates –Inflation (fuel bill rises) –Rebound effect Carbon HEART

12. Up-to-date databases –Retrofit costs –CO 2 factors –Fuel costs Accurate, ‘real-life’ outputs –Uses actual property data (drawings, specifications etc.) –Uses actual retrofit costs (agreed in advance) –Can use any energy data (RdSAP, SAP, NHER etc.) –Does not rely on generic averages Carbon HEART

13. Well suited to complex property types –Blocks –Terraces –Tenements Carbon HEART Strategic investment tool for social landlords –Baseline performance –Impact of different retrofit scenarios –Indentifies optimal scenario –Best Value For Money

14. Issue 1: Identifying Cost Effective Solutions 3-storey No Fines block –Double glazing –Non-condensing gas combi boiler –Concrete walls, no insulation Modelled 3 improvement scenarios 1.External wall insulation 2.As above, plus Loft top-up Condensing boilers Lighting Improved double glazing 3.As above, plus Floor insulation PV

15. Carbon HEART –Targets All 3 retrofit scenarios will meet 2020 CO2 target Meeting 2050 target will be much more challenging Limited additional savings achieved for higher-cost retrofit scenarios Scenario 2 & 3 waste resources No Eco support

16. Carbon HEART – Scenarios Limited additional benefit from investment

17. Carbon HEART – Scenarios Golden Rule Able? Level of ECO available? FITs level?

18. Carbon HEART – Example

19. Issue 2: Hard to Treat Measures Historic Scotland Technical Paper 16 Financial modelling of traditional property types –Detached cottage –Tenement flat Identified qualifying measures Tested variables to assess impact on eligibility

20. Hard to Treat Properties Detached cottage –600mm sandstone walls –Solid & timber floors –Single glazing –No loft insulation –Coal & electric heating Tenement flat –Mid-floor –600mm sandstone walls –Single glazing (extensive) –‘G’ rated gas boiler

21. Variables Energy rating software Interest rates Inflation (fuel costs) Rebound effect Heating patterns / behaviour Installation costs –(Used actual £ data provided by Historic Scotland)

22. Improvement measures Walls (internal only) –Blown beads –Slimline ‘blanket’ –Thicker (100mm) fibre board Windows –Double glazing x 2 –Secondary glazing x 2 –Shutters –Draughtproofing Floors –Timber floor hemp board –Solid floor board

23. Improvement measures Roofs –Sheep wool Doors –New insulated front door –Insulate existing door Heating –Gas boiler & full controls –Electric storage heaters –Biomass boiler –HWC & pipe insulation –HWC thermostat (Also packaged measures)

24. Results – detached house Solid floor insulation Wall insulation (Blown beads) Secondary glazing HWC insulation Loft insulation Timber floor insulation Wall insulation (blanket) Double glazing Door upgrade Draught proofing New door Biomass boiler Not recognised by RdSAP Eligible? Eligible AW only

25. Results – tenement flat Wall insulation (blown beads) Secondary glazing Gas boiler HWC insulation HWC thermostat Wall insulation (blanket) Wall insulation (fibre board) Double glazing Secondary glazing Draught proofing Slim double glazing ShuttersDoor Electric heating Not recognised by RdSAP Eligible?

26. Issue 3: Software Limitations Theoretical average High assumed heating use + poor assumed U-values = over-estimated savings Only as good as the assessor collecting and entering the data Time and cost penalty for going beyond default values

27. Performance factor catered for –‘In-use’ factors –Will reduce available finance –Will exclude some measures –Will be updated over time & account for in situ results “The in-use factor is not intended to protect against occupants changing their behaviour, for example, comfort taking to achieve a warmer home. We recognise that such comfort taking can be a major reason for the apparent underperformance.” DECC In use factors

28. Green Deal Loan (7.5% over 20 years) Savings (1% interest) or Mortgage (4.25% - 20 years) (Public Sector 2.86%) Energy Company Obligation ECO –Rate of deployment and timing –Development of the carbon market / brokerage –Energy company priorities (PR) –Ofgem and government tinkering Issue 4: Funding for measures

29. Changes to loan details Effect on ECO Green Deal Loan Analysis

30. The Market Place for ECO £ CO 2 Ideal ECO scenario –Avoid expensive hard to treat properties –Find tenants that qualify for affordable warmth stream –Similar properties / economies of scale (social housing) –Basic measures in poor (low SIMD) areas Maximise £-per-tonne-CO 2 –Off gas properties (rural?) –Terraces with external wall insulation

31. Timing and cost of technology – penalties for early adopters (e.g. solar PV) Future proofing vs. short- term targets Full lifecycle costing / retrofit vs. replacement Issues beyond energy efficiency e.g. housing management or property conservation Wider project benefits e.g. health, energy security economic spin offs Other Considerations

32. Lots of variables Lots of uncertainties –Technical –Human –Financial Fingers crossed! How the Green Deal is going to work is still a puzzle

33. Inspiring change for people and the environment Thank you for listening shay@changeworks.org.uk