2. Centre for Energy, Environment and Health Air pollution, transport and deposition Emissions Population Meteorology / climate Ref.-year: 2000 Health effects. Exposure and mortality Externality cost functions Energy system optimisation model(s) Environmental impact and damage Global externality cost for CO 2 Scenarios for energy system 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050 Energy systems Economic growth Technologies Global emission data

3. Input to the CEEH Machine and output Economic development Demographics Global emission data Meteorology Technology data Fuel costs External environmental costs Health costs from energy conversion External cost for each emission spices Optimal investment patterns for the Scandinavian energy system – with focus on Denmark Fuel use and emission from the energy system

4. Scenarios at different levels Global Scenarios Regional Scenarios (Scandinavia) Regional Scenarios (Scandinavia) Local Scenarios Denmark Local Scenarios Denmark DG Tren EU- Commission IPCC SRES A1B Air pollution models ADAM- EMMA Energy system model External costs Emissions Energy demand Electricity and DH price Energy demand Emissions

5. IPCC A1B A1 storyline and scenario family: a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies

6. IPCC A1B

7. DG Tren Projections made for the European Commission in the PRIMES model. GDP growth Electricity demand District heating demand For Norway, Sweden, Finland and Germany

8. EMMA-fremskrivning Danmark – input til EMMA Teknologisk udvikling Brændselspriser Økonomisk udvikling fordelt på erhverv IEA + ??? Elmodel bolig etc. Elpris EMMA Elforbrug Fjernvarmeforbrug Andre brændsler Transportenergi ADAM Balmorel Energiforbrug fordelt på erhverv

9. Transport Economic development Person transport (pers.km) Gods transport (tonkm) Bus Car Train...... Bus Car Train...... Electric Plug-in Gasoline/ diesel Hybrid...

10. Thank you for your attention www.ceeh.dk