2. SSelection Question: What are the circumstances surrounding EU membership? PPerformance Question: What is the effect of EU membership on economic growth?

3.  EU-15 Member Countries  France, United Kingdom  New EU Member Countries  Poland, Slovakia  EU Candidate Countries  Turkey, Croatia  Non-EU Countries  Russia, Switzerland

4.  Measure of economic growth: change in GDP per capita per year using Chain model  % in 2005 Constant Prices  Calculate average change in GDP/capita/year before and after joining EU  Specific years varied for each country  Compare

5.  Calculate average change in GDP/capita/year for 5 years before becoming an EU candidate and:  Turkey (1999): 8 years after  Croatia (2004): 3 years after  Macedonia (2005): 2 years after  Compare

6.  Calculate average change in GDP/capita/year from 1991-2007  Compare to average change for EU member countries and EU candidate countries

7. Growth RateMemberNon-MemberDifference Average Before3.162.840.32 Average After4.292.841.45  Member v. Non-Member (Performance)  Member v. Candidate (Selection) Growth RateMemberCandidateDifference Average Before3.161.741.42 Average After4.294.240.05

10. EU membership = GOOD! BUT Conditions surrounding membership or the membership itself?