1. TRANSYT-TRANSPORT RESEARCH CENTRE UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID Andrés Monzón, Paul Pfaffenbichler, Elena López, Andrés Olmo UPM-TRANSYT www.transyt.upm.es WORK UNDERWAY IN WP5 SBF meeting 3/3/2006

2. TRANSYT-TRANSPORT RESEARCH CENTRE UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID SCENARIOS-POLICY STRATEGIES MODEL OUTPUTS- PERFORMANCE INDICATORS WP5: EVALUATION AND ASSESSMENT OF SCENARIOS WP4: SCENARIO IMPACTS WP3: DEFINITION OF SCENARIOS WP6: CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY GUIDELINES ACHIEVEMENT OF EU POLICY GOALS? EU POLICY RELATIONSHIPS WITH OTHER WPs

3. TRANSYT-TRANSPORT RESEARCH CENTRE UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID Outline of the MCA methodology

4. TRANSYT-TRANSPORT RESEARCH CENTRE UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID ASSESSMENT CRITERIA CRITERIASUB-CRITERIA Efficiency and security of energy supply Reducing total energy consumption Reducing import dependence Increasing % of renewables Reducing energy consumption per unit of transport/economic activity Environmental Global warming Emissions of PM/NO x Emissions of traffic noise Social Increasing transport safety Improving equity Competitiveness Changes in accessibility Increasing regional GDP Increasing employment rates Decoupling transport and GDP growth

5. TRANSYT-TRANSPORT RESEARCH CENTRE UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID PERFORMANCE INDICATORS CRITERIASUB-CRITERIAPERFORMANCE INDICATORS Efficiency and security of energy supply Reducing total energy consumption Total energy consumption (toE) Reducing import dependence% of energy from imports Increasing % of renewables% of energy from renewable sources Reducing energy consumption per unit of transport/economic activity toE/trip toE/GDP Environmental Global warming CO 2 /pers-km, t-km total CO 2 Emissions of PM/NO x Atmospheric emissions Emissions of traffic noiseNoise emitted Social Increasing transport safetyTotal Deaths/Injuries Improving equity Territorial cohesion indicators of accessibility, GDP & employment Competitiveness Changes in accessibility% change (each mode) Increasing regional GDP% change GDP Increasing employment rates% change unemployment rates Decoupling transport and GDP growth (%GDP growth-%transport growth)

6. TRANSYT-TRANSPORT RESEARCH CENTRE UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID RESPONSES TO THE QUESTIONNAIRE Low rate of anwers in some countries Some missing FinlandNorway GreeceDenmark PortugalSweden Switzerland France New acc. countries Consistency Further analysis Regional Economic level

7. TRANSYT-TRANSPORT RESEARCH CENTRE UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID WEIGHTS BY CRITERIA AND SUBCRITERIA

8. TRANSYT-TRANSPORT RESEARCH CENTRE UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID SOME PREVIOUS CONSIDERATIONS Each model provides different indicators each model has a different weighting system Difficulty of providing a common value function for each indicator each indicator has a different value function in each model. No single model provides all the indicators it is not possible to compute a strict global utility value Scenarios are compared: –individually for each model –both in terms of each of the four criteria groups and aggregated Models are compared in broad terms: –only the direction of the effect on utility values

9. TRANSYT-TRANSPORT RESEARCH CENTRE UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID 0 1 Utility value 0,9*Least preferred value 1,1*Most preferred value PERFORMANCE MATRIX SCORESAGGREGATION CRITERIA WEIGHTS VALUE FUNCTIONS

10. TRANSYT-TRANSPORT RESEARCH CENTRE UNIVERSIDAD POLITÉCNICA DE MADRID No policiesBussiness as usual Technology investments Demand regulation Integrated policy Low oil price growthA-1A0A1A2A3 High oil price growthB-1B0B1B2B3 Extreme fuel price growth C-1C0C1C2C3 COMPARISON ACROSS SCENARIOS AND/OR MODELS OIL PRICE EFFECT POLICY EFFECT

11. EUROPEAN MODELS

12. ASTRA SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

15. SASI SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

18. POLES SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

21. REGIONAL/LOCAL MODELS

22. DORTMUND SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

25. EDINBURGH SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

28. S.TYROL SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

31. HELSINKI SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

34. BRUSSELS SCENARIO ASSESSMENT RESULTS

37. BROAD COMPARISON ACROSS MODELS

38. FUEL PRICE EFFECT POLICY EFFECT EUROPEAN MODELS A-1=100

39. FUEL PRICE EFFECT REGIONAL MODELS (I) A-1=100

40. POLICY EFFECT REGIONAL MODELS (II) A-1=100

41. Some final considerations Heterogeneity among models difficults their comparison Fuel price increase & modelled policies generally improves Energy, Environment &Social criteria. However, they reduce economic growth and constrain mobility in most cases: reduces competitiveness: which is the trade-off?? Policy effects: demand regulation performs better than tech.investments in energy&environment criteria Planned sensitivity analysis to criteria weights