1. © European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Operational and research activities at ECMWF now and in the future Sarah Keeley Education Officer Erland Källén Director of Research

2. © European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF An independent intergovernmental organisation established in 1975 Currently: 20 Member States 14 Co-operating States

3. © European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

4. How ECMWF was established Start of operational activities 1978Installation of first computer system (CRAY 1-A) 1979Start of operations N48 grid point model – 200km

5. © European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Current system IBM Cluster – Two identical systems for resiliency – 1.5 Petaflops peak performance (1.5×10 15 ) Operational Model - T1279 (16km) Ensemble Prediction System - T639 (31km)

6. © European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Increasing Resolution ~125km~63km ~39km ~25km

7. © European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Evolution of ECMWF scores Adapted and extended from Simmons & Hollingsworth (2002) ~210km ~16km

8. © European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Physical aspects, included in IFS

9. © European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Data assimilation

10. © European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

11. Predictability, diagnostics and extended-range forecasting The atmosphere is a chaotic system Small errors can grow to have major impact (butterfly effect) This limits detailed weather prediction to a week or so ahead Slowly evolving components of the climate system can give predictability at longer timescales

12. © European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

13. Meteorological Operations

14. © European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF Research Erland Källén Director of Research ECMWF

15. © European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Outline Operational scores Data assimilation Clouds and surface processes Forecast busts Increasing resolution Ocean wave prediction Reanalysis Chemical modelling and assimilation

16. © European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Quality of 500 hPa forecasts at day 6 Error reduction ↑ ECMWF UKMO NCEP ERA reforecasts

17. © European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

18. Model: Physical aspects Cloud microphysics Convection scheme revisions Stable boundary layer – roughness lengths Radiation and aerosols

19. © European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Focus on improved cloud parametrization: Freezing level Super-cooled liquid layers in mixed phase stratiform cloud (37r3) Ice water content in cirrus (38r1) Reduction of drizzle occurrence mid-level cloud anvil cirrus stratocumulus shallow Cu deep convection frontal SLW stratus cirrus ice liquid

20. © European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Diagnostics Forecast busts Severe weather EDA, ENS and model error

21. © European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Forecast busts over Europe D+6 RMSE > 60m ACC < 0.40

22. © European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Flow anomaly before forecast bust over Europe

23. © European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts CAPE anomaly before forecast bust over Europe

24. © European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Model: Numerical aspects Resolution increases – Horizontal: 16 km in 2010 →10 km in 2015 → ≈5 km in 2020 – Vertical: 91 → 137 levels in 2013 Fast Legendre transforms Non-hydrostatic model Mass conservation

25. © European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Surface winds from Lothar storm 26 Dec 1999 (11 hour forecast) T1279 (16 km) T7999 (2.5 km) Gust speed

26. © European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ENsemble prediction System (ENS) EDA, singular vectors and ENS Stochastic physics Monthly forecasting – MJO skill scores Seasonal forecast System 4 – EUROSIP including NCEP Applications of ENS – Flooding/drought prediction – Health

27. © European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Marine Parametrisation Ocean wave impacts on mixing

28. © European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Data assimilation Variational assimilation Ensemble of Data Assimilations (EDA) Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) Surface analysis

29. © European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

30. Reanalysis (ERA) Climate monitoring in near real time ERA-20th century reanalysis in preparation Ocean reanalysis

31. © European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-20CM consistency with ERA-Interim

32. © European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Time evolution of ocean heat content

33. © European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Atmospheric composition Modelling and data assimilation Monitoring and evaluation Impact on NWP – aerosols

34. © European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Summary ● ECMWF world leader medium range weather forecasting ● Variational and ensemble data assimilation ● Very high resolution possible ● Ocean surface wave modelling ● Atmospheric composition ● Reanalysis