1. Reshad Sadozai, Mattea Stein, Maria Jones, Javaid Zeerak
Afghanistan Rural Enterprise Development Program (AREDP) Concept Note for Impact Evaluation
Reshad Sadozai, Mattea Stein, Maria Jones, Javaid Zeerak

2. Key Issues
75% of population live in rural areas where agriculture is the primary activity;
High unemployment and poverty rates;
Shortage of business planning, management, and marketing know-how (BDS);
Shortage of access to formal, affordable, suitable credit

3. AREDP
PDO
To Improve employment opportunities and income of rural men and women, and sustainability of targeted local enterprises.
Components
A. Community-led Enterprise Development
B. SME Development
C. Program Management Support

4. Component A Key Interventions Under Component A
Facilitating the formation of Savings Groups and delivering financial literacy training
Federating Savings Groups into Village Savings and Loan Associations (VSLAs) in order to provide access to credit
Facilitating the formation of Enterprise Groups and delivery of Business Development Services

5. Research questions
What is the impact of facilitating the formation of community-based financial institutions and provision of financial literacy training on access to credit & household incomes? (including attitudes towards credit and lending)
What is the added impact of aggregating entrepreneurs into productive groups and provision of BDS on the following?
Enterprise sustainability/profitability
Access to markets
Employment creation
What is the disaggregated effect of program interventions on women in particular?

6. Indicators Household Level
Improved financial literacy skills & attitudes towards credit and lending
Total amount of loans accessed, number of loans accessed, percentage of loans repaid, Changes in investment
Number of household members gainfully employed, income, consumption, assets
Enterprise Level
Access to markets
Percentage in turnover, revenue, and profit
Number of new jobs created
Number of women owned enterprises
Sustainability
Group Level
Frequency of meetings, duration of savings group
Amount saved by group, amount lent by group, number of loans given, percentage of loans recovered
intra-group cohesion & trust, inter-group cohesion & trust
Village Level
Number of VSLAs & producer associations formed
Second order effect on public goods

7. Identification strategy
Total CDCs formed by NSP
AREDP-eligible CDCs
District Randomization for 3-year rollout
Year-1 Roll-out
Assignment to sub-interventions & control
SIT-1
SIT-2
Control

8. Sample Universe 250 CDCs 125 CDCs SIT-1 SIT-2 Control 2500 SGs
1000 EGs
37,500 HHs
1250 SGs
18,750 HHs
SIT-1
SG formation
VSLA Federation
FinLit
EG Formation
BDS provision
SIT-2
Control

9. Sampling Strategy # CDCs in SIT-1 Control All CDCs in SIT-2
HHs member of SGs
HHs member of EGs
HHs member in both
HHs member in neither
# CDCs in SIT-1
All CDCs in SIT-2
Control
(Actual #s of HHs and Villages TBD)

10. Timeline D&R – 2 months FR – 1 year Midline – 2 years
Design & Randomization
First round of Data Collection
Midline Data Collection
Endline Data Collection
D&R – 2 months
FR – 1 year
Midline – 2 years
Endline – 5 years

11. Impact evaluation team
AREDP
IE Specialist
M&E field staff (for data coll.)
Head of Office of M&L, AREDP
Program Mgmt Staff
DIME
Field Coordinator
Research Team
Academia
Lead Researcher

12. Estimated budget AREDP Data collection Data entry & cleaning
Data Analysis
DIME
Impact Evaluation
Field Coord & Technical Assistance
AREDP Budget allocated for M&E – >$1.5million

13. Parting Questions
Measuring social cohesion

14. Questions & Discussion
Fin
Questions & Discussion