1. © Michael C. Rawlins Is XML Ready for Prime Time? When to use XML for Electronic Transactions for Your Business Michael C. Rawlins Rawlins EC Consulting

2. © Michael C. Rawlins Overview Organization types Factors –Standards –Tools –Complexity Conclusions

3. © Michael C. Rawlins Organization Types Early Adopters Second Wave Mainstream

4. © Michael C. Rawlins Early Adopters Large to medium enterprises XML programmers on staff High risk tolerance New applications Small trading communities

5. © Michael C. Rawlins Second Wave Primarily large to medium enterprises, but some small Hubs and first tier suppliers Programmers or technical support on staff Moderate risk tolerance New and existing applications Moderate size trading communities

6. © Michael C. Rawlins Mainstream All sizes, including small enterprises Small or nonexistent technical staff Low risk tolerance Core applications Large trading communities

7. © Michael C. Rawlins Factors

8. © Michael C. Rawlins Factors Why XML? Base XML Specifications XML Tools XML Business Standards Application Support On-line Marketplaces Complexity Market Timing

9. © Michael C. Rawlins Why: One Source, Many Uses XML Document XSL Stylesheet XSL Stylesheet DTD Printed Document Web Page Business Application

10. © Michael C. Rawlins XML Selling Points Separate content from presentation Applicable to many types of problems Generic tools Simplicity SME penetration

11. © Michael C. Rawlins XML : A Family of Specifications XML 1.0 - Feb 1998 –Base language –Document Type Definition (DTD) XSLT for Transformations - 11/1999 XHTML 1.0 - HTML in XML - 1/2000 XSL for Display - In Progress Schema for Data Definition - In Progress Several Others

12. © Michael C. Rawlins XML Tools Browsers –IE 5 implements draft XSL –Netscape 6.0 pre-release uses CSS with XML Parsers and Utilities –Microsoft, Sun, IBM, many others Authoring Tools - few mainstream

13. © Michael C. Rawlins XML Specifications and Tools Impact Specifications not yet mature Tools depend on specifications Application developers depend on tools Conclusion: –Early adopters only –Not ready for mainstream or second wave

14. © Michael C. Rawlins Factors: Business Standards for XML

15. © Michael C. Rawlins Why Business Standards? 1) JOHN SMITH 2) SMITH JOHN 3) SMITH JOHN

16. © Michael C. Rawlins Business Standards for using XML Frameworks –ebXML –BizTalk Cross Industry –No voluntary standards (X12, EDIFACT) yet –Proprietary - cXML, xCBL Many Vertical Industries

17. © Michael C. Rawlins Application Support for Business Standards Ideally built-in, off-the-shelf Currently limited to: –Proprietary approaches –Vertical industry standards Impact: Necessary for second wave and mainstream

18. © Michael C. Rawlins Factors: On-line Marketplaces Will impact bilateral exchanges No common business or technology profiles Issues: –Viability of ASP outsourcing –Business models –Cut out the middleman? Kill rip & read EDI Delay XML adoption?

19. © Michael C. Rawlins Factors: Complexity XML Internet E-mail or HTTP

20. © Michael C. Rawlins Complexity XML Internet XSL XSLT Schemas Xpath XLink E-mailHTTPFTP Security Packaging Internal Routing UML Meta-model Core Components Business Schema BP Model Registry & Repository

21. © Michael C. Rawlins XML Implementation: Naïve

22. © Michael C. Rawlins XML Implementation: Realistic Business Application Sender Receiver Business Application Internet XML Management, Transformation, Messaging XML

23. © Michael C. Rawlins Systems Complexity over Time Time Complexity

24. © Michael C. Rawlins Complexity of a Single Technology vs. Adoption Complexity Adoption

25. © Michael C. Rawlins Factors: Market Timing

26. © Michael C. Rawlins OSI: The Apocalypse of the Two Elephants Time Activity Research Standards Billion dollar investments Source: Dr. David Clark, head of Advanced Network Architecture research group, MITs Laboratory for Computer Science

27. © Michael C. Rawlins Elephants & XML Business Standards Time Activity Foundation XML Specifications XML business standards Billion dollar investments

28. © Michael C. Rawlins Elephants & XML? Time Activity B2B over the Internet XML Billion dollar investments

29. © Michael C. Rawlins Conclusions

30. © Michael C. Rawlins Effects on EDI Implementations Early Adopters –Phase out EDI Second Wave –Keep existing EDI –Few new applications Mainstream –Kill rip & read EDI

31. © Michael C. Rawlins Near Term Strategies Procurement - Prepare for migration to Marketplaces Other Applications –Retain existing EDI –3 - 5 year ROI probably OK Experiment with XML

32. © Michael C. Rawlins Summary by Organization Type Early Adopters –Ready for Prime Time Go Forth and XML! Second Wave –Keep them on Saturday Night Wait for standards and major trading partners Mainstream –Cable Community Access Channel Wait for shrink-wrapped XML support

33. © Michael C. Rawlins For More Information Mike Rawlins, Rawlins EC Consulting rawlins@metronet.com www.metronet.com/~rawlins –XML and Emerging Approaches pages