1. Systemic impact evaluation Evaluating impacts of agricultural projects The example of SOGUIPAH in Guinea AFD - J. Delarue

2. What do we want ? Rigorously estimating impact (counterfactual approach) Accounting for impact heterogeneity Evaluating impacts on the lifetime of the project’s outputs

3. What is SOGUIPAH? An agroindustrial company in Guinea: SOGUIPAH (1987), produces rubber (exports) and palm oil (national market) Land allocation : 23 000 ha Farmers deprived of land SOGUIPAH helps other farmers develop perennial cropping systems : A model farmer : 1 ha oil palm, 2 ha rubber and 0.5 irrigated rice

4. SOGUIPAH

5. Evaluative questions What are the impacts of SOGUIPAH on the farmers’ income on the lifetime of the plantations? Impacts of land allocation Impacts of out-grower scheme Who is impacted by the project? directly Indirectly Why is there such an impact? Evaluation context and methodological challenges An evaluation 15 years after the project started Very little baseline and follow-up data

6. Estimating impacts : a counterfactual approach Counterfactual at village level Counterfactuals for the different types of farms Matching on observables + their combination in a system

7. Agrarian system analysis : matching villages History Region Agricultural land use Ecosystem Social relationships Village WITH SOGUIPAH Village WITHOUT SOGUIPAH

8. Farming system analysis : matching farms Cropping systems and breeding systems Labour calendar Land allocation Cash calendar… Baseline situation WITH SOGUIPAH WITHOUT SOGUIPAH RESULTS : 5 farming systems before SOGUIPAH 11 trajectories with SOGUIPAH 7 trajectories without SOGUIPAH

9. Agrarian system analysis : activities and results ACTIVITIES : 1. In depth interviews (focus groups, farms) 2. Landscape observations 3. Secondary data … and triangulation RESULTS : 2 comparable villages Understanding interactions of SOGUIPAH with the agrarian system (land market, labour market, prices…) Indentification of farming systems

10. Farming system analysis : activities and results ACTIVITIES : 1. In depth interviews (recall method at farm level) 2. Field observations 3. Productivity analysis nowadays … and triangulation RESULTS : Comparable farms before SOGUIPAH Trajectories of farming systems with and without SOGUIPAH Economic results with and without SOGUIPAH for a variety of cropping systems

11. What is the impact we want to estimate ?? income 1987 2005 A cross-section-based measure of average impact on the population is not what we’re looking for ! Impact ?

12. Modeling economic results with and without SOGUIPAH for one farming system 2005 Translating trajectories into a simple economic model based on financial analysis Assessing future impact based on structural trends (yields) and a few assumptions (prices) Impact on the lifetime of the plantations

13. Accounting for heterogeneity Impacts are highly differentiated ! Average : + 200 €/y ranging from – 200 €/y to + 1530 €/y

14. Conclusions about the systemic impact evaluation A qualitative approach which allows the quantification of impacts A very simple economic model based on high quality data It assesses the impacts along the life time of the project’s outputs It takes into account the complexity of real world It provides an in-depth understanding of the project effects and allows formulating recommandations