1. THURSTON REGION MULTIMODAL TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING MODEL IMPLEMENTATION IN EMME/2 - Presentation at the 15th International EMME/2 Users Group Conference - Presentation at the 15th International EMME/2 Users Group Conference Oct. 18, 2000 Jin Ren, PE, Transportation Engineer Thurston Regional Planning Council Olympia, WA (www.trpc.org)

2. TRPC Technical Modeling Process

3. Travel Skims Data Preparation n EMME/2 Multimodal Network Building n Travel Time and Distance by Modes (Walking/Biking/Auto/Transit) n Intrazonal Travel Time and Distance n Distance-Based Housing/Employment Density by Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ) n Travel Time-Based Transit Accessibility n Mix Use Index (Area-Based Densities) n Area-based Local Intersection Density

4. Household Sub-Models (Multinomial Logit Choice Modeling) n Household Worker (0, 1, 2, 3+) n Household K-12 Schoolchild (0, 1, 2, 3+) n Household Auto-Ownership (0, 1, 2, 3+)

5. Trip Generation Models n Cross-classified Household Trip Rates: 1998/1999 Household Travel Survey n Truck Freight Trip Model: 1997 Riebee Freight Survey Data n External Trip Generation Model: 1997 I-5/SR-101 O-D Surveys and Vehicle Classification Counts

6. Household Cross-Classification Schemes for Trip Production

7. 1998 Daily Trip Production Calibration

8. Daily Destination Choice Model (Multinomial Logit Models with Size Variables) n O-D Travel Time from Auto Assignments n 1998 Households, Employees by Retail, Office, Service, Government and Other n The standard formula for utilities is: Util ij = exp( *time ij + *time ij 2 + *time ij 3 +ln( 1…k *Employment j1...jk + j *Households j ))Where,,, and are parameters or estimated coefficients,,, and are parameters or estimated coefficients 1…k stand for different employment sectors i represents a production TAZ j represents an attraction TAZ

9. Daily Mode Choice Modeling n Drive-Alone Vehicle or Person Trips n Drive-with-Passenger Vehicle or Person Trips n Passenger-Only Person Trips n Transit Person Trips n Walk Person Trips n Bike Person Trips

10. Variables Impacting Mode Choices (Multinomial Logit Choice Modeling) n Land Use Variables (X i ): Employment Density, Transit Accessibility, Mixed-Use, & Parking Cost n Household Variables (Y j ): Household Size, Auto- Ownership, Worker Size and Income Status n Network Skims Variables (Z k ): Local Intersection Density and Point-to-Point Travel Time The standard logit utility function: The standard logit utility function: Util ij = exp( + i *X i + j *Y j + k *Z k ) Where,,, and are parameters or estimated coefficients

11. Time-of-Day Models n Production-Attraction and Attraction-Production Peaking Factors (Time-of-Day Factors) n 1998 AM Peak Hour Trip Tables by Modes n 1998 Mid-Day Hour Trip Tables by Modes n 1998 PM Peak Hour Trip Tables by Modes n Add 1998 Inbound/Outbound/ Through Vehicle Trips for AM, Mid-day and PM Hours

12. Trip Assignments n 1998 Multi-Class Auto Assignments by Time Periods n 1998 Transit Person Trip Multi-Path Assignments by Time Periods n Feedback and Looping Process to Reach Ideal Equilibrium

13. Model Calibration Process n Goodness-of-Fit Statistical Testings n Control Total or Percentage Checks: - Household Numbers - Trip Productions - Mode Splits - Average Vehicle Occupancies n Screenline Analysis by 18 Screenlines n Transit Ridership Calibration to 1998 Transit Ridership Surveys

14. In Conclusion n For the first time, our region is developing a multimodal travel demand forecasting model n For the first time, we are using local survey data to develop a regional model n Model estimation and application hand in hand n Peer review groups and documentation n Effective integration of software tools for data preparation and analysis in house n Robust EMME/2 Matrix Manipulation and Macros