1. Climate Change Health Impacts and Adaptation Strategies Joacim Rocklöv, Associate Professor Epidemiology & global health, Umeå University joacim.rocklov@envmed.umu.se www.climateandhealth.net

2. Additional slides ” Tackling Climate Change – for a sustainable and healthy future” Climate Change and Global Health Group, Umeå University

3. Climate Change and Global Health Group Research on health impacts, adaptation and mitigation to climate change Global perspectives community focus Rare formation of ”Public Health Climatologists”…..

4. Climate Change and Global Health Theme Research on impacts, adaptation and mitigation to climate change Global perspectives community focus Rare group of ”Global Health Climatologists”

5. Outline 1.Weather, climate and climate change 2.Climate change impacts 3.Health Impacts and adaptation strategies 4.Examples

6. 1. Weather, climate and climate change

7. What is climate? Described by physical laws Complex interaction of atmosphere, sun, vegetation, oceans and humans Characterized by different climate types – e.g. arctic, temperate, tropical, step, monsoonal, arid… Realisation of weather (rain mm, sun hours, temperature, wind speed and direction, etc.) Statistics of weather (long term averages) describes the climate

8. What is climate change? Imbalance of energy in the climate system Manmade climate change is caused by greenhouse gases generated by human activities

10. 2. Impacts

11. IPCC. Special report on extreme events. 2012.

12. Heavy Rain Extreme Heat Reference: http://www.ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/

14. 3. Climate change and health

15. Pathways/processes by which climate change affect human health Reference: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/contents.html

16. Epidemiologic research tasks Exposure-response relationships between climate variation and health outcomes Estimate the current health burden (e.g., annual deaths) attributable to climate change Develop scenario-based modelling to project health risks Assess health harms and benefits of proposed mitigation and adaptation policy options

18. Adaptation = preparedness and prevention of impacts Education Policies Interventions Both top-down and bottom-up perspectives are needed: National policies and strategies Community involvement Mixed methods

19. Example - Sweden Impacts and adaptation strategies: Health conditions in Sweden are sensitive to climate change, and the potential impacts was described where such evidence existed in the 2007 National Climate and Vulnerability Assessment (SOU 2007:60) Recommendations in form of adaptation strategies was developed in and after the assessment Many of which are being emphasized and implemented presently Examples of undergoing adaptation activities: Heat waves (warnings system under development) Borreliosis (increased surveillance and preparedness northwards) Drinking water (surface water sources; under research; new technology investments, e.g. UV-light)

20. Epidemiology of disease directly related to weather and climate extremes (heat waves, floods) Epidemiology of disease indirectly related to weather and climate (malaria, dengue, waterborne disease, vole fever etc.) Occupational health and productivity Perceptions, experiences and knowledge of the public to climate change and health Projections of disease under climate change scenarios Research and policies for mitigation and adaptation ICT and eHealth in adaptation and mitigation Community adaptation to climate change health impacts (e.g. early warnings and action plans, mixed methods)

21. Example – mixed methods in adaptation research A doctoral project in Kenya seeks to: Increase compliance, preparedness and health seeking behaviour to reduce under five mortality in malaria in Kenya by ”epidemic” early warnings disseminated through mobile phones to mothers Quantitative part: Develop the early warning by predictions of incidence using lags of e.g. weather (1) Evaluate the intervention by a controlled interrupted time series design (4) Qualitative part: interviews to help implement the mobile phone intervention among stakeholder (3) interviews to seek knowledge on how to develop the messages and instructions among community participants/mothers (2)