1. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Business Cycles Chapter 8

2. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 8-2 Figure 8.1 A business cycle

3. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 8-3 Table 8.1 NBER Business Cycle Turning Points and Durations of Post–1854 Business Cycles

4. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 8-4 Figure 8.2 GDP growth, 1960-2009 Source: Authors’ calculations from data on real GDP from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database, research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/GDPC1.

5. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 8-5 Figure 8.3 Standard deviation of GDP growth, 1960-2009 Source: Authors’ calculations from data on real GDP from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database, research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/GDPC1.

6. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 8-6 Figure 8.4 Chicago Fed National Activity Index, 1967-2009 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Web site, www.chicagofed.org/economic_research_and_data/cfnai.cfm.

7. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 8-7 Summary 10

8. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 8-8 Figure 8.6 Cyclical behavior of the index of industrial production Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database at research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/INDPRO.

9. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 8-9 Figure 8.7 Cyclical behavior of consumption and investment Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database at research.stlouisfed.org/fred2seriesPCDGCC96 (durable goods), PCNDGC96 (nondurable goods), PCESVC96 (services), and GPDIC1 (investment).

10. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 8-10 Figure 8.8 Cyclical behavior of civilian employment Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database at research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CE16OV.

11. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 8-11 Figure 8.9 Cyclical behavior of the unemployment rate Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database at research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UNRATE.

12. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 8-12 Figure 8.10 The job finding rate, 1976–2009 Source: Shigeru Fujita and Garey Ramey, “The Cyclicality of Separation and Job Finding Rates,” International Economic Review, May 2009, pp. 415– 430; data updated by Shigeru Fujita.

13. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 8-13 Figure 8.11 The job loss rate Source: Shigeru Fujita and Garey Ramey, “The Cyclicality of Separation and Job Finding Rates,” International Economic Review, May 2009, pp. 415–430; data updated by Shigeru Fujita.

14. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 8-14 Table 8.2 Jobs Lost and Gained In an Expansion and a Recession

15. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 8-15 Figure 8.12 Cyclical behavior of average labor productivity and the real wage Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database at research.stlouisfed.org/fred2 series OPHNFB (productivity) and COMPRNFB (real wage).

16. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 8-16 Figure 8.13 Cyclical behavior of nominal money growth and inflation Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database at research.stlouisfed.org/fred2 series M2SL and CPIAUCSL.

17. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 8-17 Figure 8.14 Cyclical behavior of the nominal interest rate, 1947–2009 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database at research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/TB3MS.

18. Copyright © 2011 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 8-18 Figure 8.15 Industrial production indexes in six major countries, 1960–2009 Source: International Financial Statistics, August 2009, from International Monetary Fund (with scales adjusted for clarity). Note: The scales for the industrial production indexes differ by country; for example, the figure does not imply that the United Kingdom’s total industrial production is higher than that of Japan.