1. 1 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Components of Change and the Demographic Impact Eleanor Spillane Senior Projects Officer

2. 2 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population This presentation will: Highlight the datasets that can be used to estimate population Describe the underlying factors driving population change Consider the impact on county demographics Introduce the population projections

3. 3 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Datasets Internationa l Passengers Long Term Migrants Worker Registration s Census populatio n NINo allocation s Resident population Destination of graduates Flag 4 Registration s Births and deaths Population projection s NHS patient lists NHS patient lists School Census School Census Populatio n estimates

4. 4 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population 1871-1971 Approx. 150,000 people 1,500 per year 1971- 2001 Almost 150,000 Almost 5,000 per year Population Growth in Lincolnshire 2010 703,000 People

5. 5 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Growth Index 100 300,000 600,000 900,000 187118911911193119511971199120112031 Lincs England

6. 6 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Growth in Lincolnshire 1990s 2000s %

7. 7 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Change since 2001 Wyberton 10% 400 people Market Deeping 6.5% 400 people Quarrington 55% 1,500 people Witham St Hughs 76% 2,000 people

8. 8 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Components of Change Released as part of the ONS Population Estimates Taken from the civil registration system Applied to authority of residence Births and deaths

9. 9 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Natural Change Lincolnshire East Lindsey Boston Lincoln South Kesteven West Lindsey NK SH

10. 10 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Births and deaths People

11. 11 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Births and Deaths ‘000 people Migration Births and deaths Population estimates

12. 12 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Components of Change Births and deaths Internal Migration National Health Service Central Register (NHSCR) Transferring patient notifications

13. 13 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Internal Migration In

14. 14 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Internal Migration In Out

15. 15 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Internal Migration In 9,400 Recession Low house prices Out

16. 16 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Internal Migration to Lincolnshire 2006 - 2010 ‘000 people

17. 17 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Components of Change Births and deaths Internal Migration Internationa l Migration

18. 18 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Datasets Internationa l Passengers Long Term Migrants Worker Registration s Census populatio n NINo allocation s Resident population Destination of graduates Flag 4 Registration s Births and deaths Population projection s NHS patient lists NHS patient lists School Census School Census Populatio n estimates

19. 19 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population International Migration 2010 179,000 EU 322,000 rest of world 591,000 339,000 99,000 104,000 136,000 EU rest of world Britain +252,000 Britain 90,000

20. 20 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Datasets Internationa l Passengers Long Term Migrants Worker Registration s Census populatio n NINo allocation s Flag 4 Registration s School Census School Census Populatio n estimates Resident population

21. 21 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population National Insurance Number Registrations (NINo) Registrations

22. 22 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population NINOs by District Last 5 Years 32,920 registrations in the county since 2006/07 34% 8% 16% 6% 22% 12% 3%

23. 23 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Datasets Internationa l Passengers Long Term Migrants Worker Registration s Census populatio n NINo allocation s Flag 4 Registration s School Census School Census Populatio n estimates Resident population

24. 24 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Flag 4 GP Registrations Registrations

25. 25 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population English as an Additional Language Over 100,000 pupils Nearly 5,000 have English as an additional language 30% 21% 7% 5% 18% 15% 3%

26. 26 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Datasets Internationa l Passengers Long Term Migrants Worker Registration s Census populatio n NINo allocation s Flag 4 Registration s School Census School Census Populatio n estimates Resident population

27. 27 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Resident population 690,000 UKNon-UK EU Non-EU 646,00045,000 29,00016,000

28. 28 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Key Points Population growth driven by migration Increasing birth rate in recent years In-migration rising again after 2 years of decline Major source of international migrants changed from Portugal to Lithuania http://shared.research-lincs.org.uk

29. 29 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Components of Change Births and deaths Internal Migration International Migration =

30. 30 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Change by Age Group

31. 31 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Change by Age Group University opens

32. 32 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Change by Age Group Peak of internal migration

33. 33 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Change by Age Group

34. 34 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Age Profile

35. 35 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Datasets Internationa l Passengers Long Term Migrants Worker Registration s Census populatio n NINo allocation s Resident population Destination of graduates Flag 4 Registration s Births and deaths Population projection s NHS patient lists NHS patient lists School Census School Census Populatio n estimates

36. 36 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Growth 1871-1971 Approx. 150,000 people 1,500 per year 1971-2011 Over 200,000 Over 5,000 per year 2011-2031 Approx. 116,000 5,800 per year

37. 37 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

38. 38 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

39. 39 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

40. 40 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

41. 41 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

42. 42 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

43. 43 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

44. 44 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

45. 45 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

46. 46 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

47. 47 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

48. 48 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

49. 49 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

50. 50 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

51. 51 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

52. 52 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

53. 53 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

54. 54 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

55. 55 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

56. 56 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

57. 57 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

58. 58 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

59. 59 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

60. 60 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

61. 61 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

62. 62 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Population Projections People

63. 63 Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Lincolnshire’s Changing Population Any questions?