1. Determining sample size for avian mortality (and vice-versa) - using data augmentation for epidemiology Ken Rice 1,2, Thomas Lumley 1,3, Betz Halloran 1,4 1.University of Washington, Department of Biostatistics 2.Seattle Symphony Chorale 3.Seattle Choral Company 4.Statistical and Quantitative Methods for Infectious Diseases and Evaluating Interventions

2. West Nile Virus King County wants you to be aware!

3. It’s working! Cases of West Nile in King County

4. Avoiding misclassification Before analyzing it; Is it a bird? Is it a plain (bird)? Is it dead? “If you find a dead crow, blue jay, raven or pigeon”

5. Sample size – a reminder Power is low for rare events Low power = lots of awkward questions to answer! How to increase sample size of dead birds?

6. Sample size – a reminder A hint! We don’t cover this in Autumn quarter, or Winter… strychnine cyanide