1. MENA Water Outlook 2050 Water Scarcity and Adaptation Options
Peter Droogers, Walter Immerzeel, Petra Hellegers
Jippe Hoogeveen, Bekele Debele Negewo

2. Study Design Objectives Steps Limitations
Detailed water supply and demand analysis
Identification of potential options to overcome water shortage
Steps
Climate and other change projections
Hydrological impact model
Water resources supply/demand analysis
Cost and benefits adaptation options
Limitations
Large scale so simplifications, generalizations

4. WEAP Modeling Framework
WEAP modeling setup
22 countries
Streams, Reservoirs, Groundwater
Irrigation, Domestic, Industry
3 climate change models
Results from hydrological model

5. REsults: demands

6. Results 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Demand curves MENA (AVG)
Water demand as a results of economic development and climate change for the AVG CC projection
Irrigation from 213 to 265
Domestic from 28 to 88
Industry from 23 to 64
Total from 264 to 417 = 60% more
Demand curves MENA (AVG)

7. Results
Demand curves MENA (DRY)
Demand curves MENA (WET)

8. Results Demand and Supply Curves MENA (AVG)
Unmet from 43 to 222 = five-fold
Demand and Supply Curves MENA (AVG)

9. Results Demand and Supply Curves MENA (DRY) Demand and Supply
Curves MENA (WET)

10. Iran
Morocco
Yemen
Egypt

11. Water Demand-Shortage
MCM/year; average climate change

12. ADAPTATION Strategies

13. Water Marginal Cost Curves
Closing supply-demand gap:
Increasing the productivity
Expanding supply
Reducing demand
Water marginal costs curves
Assumptions:
Net present value (US$ 2010)

14. Strategies Increasing the productivity: Expanding supply:
A: Improved agricultural practice (including crop varieties)
B: Increased reuse of water from domestic and industry
C: Increased reuse of irrigated agriculture
Expanding supply:
D: Expanding reservoir capacity (small scale)
E: Expanding reservoir capacity (large scale)
F: Desalination by means of using solar energy
G: Desalination by means of reverse osmosis
Reducing demand:
H: Reduce irrigated areas
I: Reduce domestic and industrial supply

15. Strategies (increase productivity)
A: Improved agricultural practice (including crop varieties)
Typical examples:
drip and sprinkler irrigation
no-till farming
improved drainage
utilization of the best available germplasm or other seed development
optimizing fertilizer use
innovative crop protection technologies
extension services
Costs
US$ 0.01 per m3
= US$ 100 per ha per year
Note: costs can vary substantially. E.g.:
Egypts Irrigation Improvement Project (IIP)  US$ 100 per ha per year
2030 Water Resources Group  US$ 0.02 – 0.03 per m3

16. Strategies (increase productivity)
B: Increased reuse of water from domestic and industry
Costs
US$ 0.30 per m3
Note: costs can vary substantially.
What to do with reused water (industry, irrigation)

17. Strategies (increase productivity)
C: Increased reuse of irrigated agriculture
Assumptions
Reuse only for agriculture
No water treatment system
Only operational and investment costs
50 mm per year
Costs
Total: US$ 0.04 per m3
50% annualized capital costs of investment
50% operational costs (maintenance, some pumping)

18. Strategies (expanding supply)
D: Expanding reservoir capacity (small scale)
E: Expanding reservoir capacity (large scale)
Costs
0.03 $/m3 for small scale
0.05 $/ m3 for large scale
Note: costs can vary substantially
sand dams in Kitui District, Kenya  0.04 $/m3
Aslantis Dam, Turkey  $/m3

19. Strategies (expanding supply)
F: Desalinisation using solar energy (CSP)
G: Desalination using reverse osmosis
Assumptions
Details see presentation by Fichtner
Costs
CSP 0.70 $/m3 to 0.35 $/m3 in 2030 and 2050
Reverse osmosis 0.50 $/m3
Note: costs can vary substantially
Especially energy
Reverse
Osmoses
Multi Effect
Distillation

20. SWRO = Sea Water Reverse Osmoses
MSF = Multi Stage Flash
MED = Multi Effect Distillation

21. Strategies (reducing demand)
H: Reduce irrigated areas
Assumptions
Reduce irrigated areas by 10%
Costs
0.10 $/m3 (Value of irrigation water (Water Productivity) between 0.05 and 0.15 $/m3.
Note: costs can vary substantially. E.g.:
Crops
Irrigation method
Climate

22. Virtual Water Trade

23. Results

24. Water Supply and Demand
MENA region

25. MENA: Water Marginal Costs Curves
All values in 2010 US$
net present value

27. Egypt
Saudi Arabia

28. Adaptation Costs (2050, average climate)

29. Conclusions Study Overall results
Advanced hydrological-water resources approach
In country variability
Monthly approach
Changes: climate, GDP, domestic, industry, agriculture
Scoping study
Overall results
Renewable water resources 20% reduction
Water shoratge 220 km3 (range )
Water shortage due to climate change 14% (range 1-35)
Costs of adaptation US$ 47 billion (range 12-98)
Costs of adaptation 2050: 2.5% to 0.3% of GDP (current to 2050 GDP)
Adaptation is possible, if policies are put in place now!

30. Comparison Other Studies
“Economics of adaptation to climate change” (World Bank, 2010):
Developing countries: 0.2 percent GDP (2030)
Developing countries: 0.12 percent GDP (2050)
MENA: US$ 2.5 – 3.6 billion per year (2050)
“2030 Water Resources Group”
MENA: increase in demand: 99 km3 (2030)
Making the Most of Scarcity (World Bank, 2007):
MENA: 1 – 3.6% of GDP (currently)
AQAU-CSP (DLR)
Water shortage: 50 km3 (current)
Water shortage: 150 km3 (2050)
2050:
Shortage (km3): 220 ( )
Costs (billion US$): 47 (12-98)
GDP (%): 0.3 – 2.5

31. Way Forward Water shortage: Water-energy nexus
Unconventional decisions needed
Food, environment, tourism, industry?
Subsidies on water-food-energy
Water-energy nexus
Long and short term decisions
Detailed case studies (country, topic)

32. Thank You

33. GDP projections
Morocco
Egypt