1. The South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative’s Third Thursday Web Forum Vegetation Dynamics Projections to Inform Conservation in the Southeast Thursday, October 18, 2012

2. Third Thursday Web Forum Agenda Introductions Updates Monthly Topic: Vegetation Dynamics Projections to Inform Conservation in the Southeast Questions & Discussion of Monthly Topic Questions & Discussion of SALCC Close

3. Introductions Amy Keister, GIS Coordinator Laurie Rounds, Gulf Coast Landscape Conservation Liaison Ginger Deason, Information Transfer Specialist/Forest Service Liaison Jen Costanza, Postdoctoral Associate, Biodiversity and Spatial Information Center (BASIC), NCSU

4. Updates Second Biological Objectives Workshop underway Draft indicators process web comments due today Interim video report – Sea Level Rise and Coastal Species – on web Socioeconomics Workshop development committee being formed www.southatlanticlcc.org

5. a tour of new spatial data products SALCC Third Thursday Web Forum

6. a tour of new spatial data products SALCC Introduction

7. forum The SALCC is a forum in which the private, state and federal conservation community… develops a shared vision of landscape sustainability cooperates in its implementation; and collaborates in its refinement Mission: Create a shared blueprint for landscape conservation actions that sustain natural and cultural resources

8. SALCC Introduction What is the Blueprint? An interactive, living plan that describes the places and actions needed to meet the SALCC’s conservation priorities in the face of future change Conservation Priority = Measurable indicator of success

9. SALCC Introduction *calculated from the NOAA medium resolution digital vector shoreline About the SALCC area Portions of 6 States 89 million acres 92% private land 18,700 miles of coastline*

10. SALCC Introduction Why is the SALCC interested in these spatial data? mission forces that drive change on the landscape To achieve our mission, we need to be able to understand and model the forces that drive change on the landscape cover the entire SALCC area The spatial data products we are highlighting cover the entire SALCC area and as far as your staff knows, these are currently the best data available for our region Do you know of other comparable data that cover our entire region?

11. Vegetation dynamics projections to inform conservation in the Southeast Jennifer Costanza October 18, 2012

12. Vegetation dynamics: extent

13. DSL Project Overview Coordinated research project between USGS Coop Units of NC and AL Atlantic Coast Joint Venture NCSU Biodiversity and Spatial Information Center Aim: Predict landscape-level change effects on avian habitats in SE due to urban growth, succession, disturbance, climate change, and conservation programs Included Vegetation dynamics, Sea level rise (SLAMM) and Urban growth (SLEUTH) modeling

14. SERAP Overview CLIM Habitat Change in Coastal Areas Urbanization Vegetation Dynamics Avian Occupancy Species-Habitats Relations Hydrologic Response Fish and Mussel Occupancy MANAGEMENT ALTERNATIVES Land Acquisition Habitat Restoration Purchase Irrigated Cropland Riparian Improvement Improve Irrigation efficiency Propagation/Translocation Adaptation Strategies COASTAL TERRESTRIAL AQUATIC

15. Modeling approach

16. State-and-transition models for 150+ ecological systems and land cover types – VDDT / TELSA Based on models developed by LANDFIRE Include succession, disturbances and management P1 P2 P3 Transitions young pine forest middle- aged forest old forest Annual transition probabilities States Spatially-explicit based on landscape map Add states, change transitions in response to changes P4P5P6 Vegetation dynamics models Clearcut pine forest P7

17. Annual probabilities from recent wildfire records: Surface fire0.02 Replacement fire0.0006 Longleaf pine ecosystem model

18. A1FI climate scenario wildfire probability multiplier 95% confidence interval Climate change effect on wildfire

19. Incorporating SLEUTH and SLAMM SLAMM (sea level rise) SLEUTH (urban growth)