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10-Year Study Results California Resource Option.

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Presentation on theme: "10-Year Study Results California Resource Option."— Presentation transcript:

1 10-Year Study Results California Resource Option

2 Renewable Options Under High Load Cases The Basics Study Concept Starting case: 2022 High Load (PC1-5) –Increase WECC annual energy demand 8% Results in additional 12,000 GWh of RPS resource requirements (per statutes) Model added 12,000 GWh in regions throughout WECC (w/ transmission) Goal Compare different resource and transmission options Total (capital and production) cost comparisons –Will be shown at a later date

3 Add: 12,000 GWh to meet WECC RPS Add transmission Renewable Options Under High Load Cases Increase WECC-wide load 8% 1 2 3 For these regions

4 Increase WECC-wide load 8% 1 8% 8% increase to peak and energy 10% 10% decrease to energy Higher Load = Additional RPS Energy

5 Calculate ratios of planned renewables in TEPPC 2022 Common Case Do not include existing resources Do not include DG IRP and LRS data Apply ratio to study build-out of 12,000 GWh Concept: development trends are best the representation of what could be added to each state More resources available than what is identified in WREZ More granular information from CPUC/CAISO Locate resources using WREZ peer-analysis tool Extrapolation Method Add 12,000 GWh to meet WECC RPS 2

6 Wind Solar PV Solar Thermal Small Hydro Geothermal Biomass RPS Resource Option Studies Breakdown of Incremental 12,000 GWh

7 Higher load and new resources = 1- Check PRM 2 - Add CTs (if needed)

8 PC1-5 High Load PRM Gap 1) Added CTs in 100 MW increments to make up this 11,426 MW PRM Gap 2) CT’s were adjusted in Renewable Options Under High Load studies

9 Installed Generation Capacity Generation TypeAZ-NM-NVBasinAlberta British ColumbiaCA-NorthCA-SouthNWUSRMPAWECC Biomass RPS1725332080075750153503,137 Geothermal357850201,4802,4435804,820 Small Hydro RPS3530082759228401,759 Solar PV1,82257003,5173,1661976189,377 Solar CSP05070003701,591002,468 Solar CSP629911000000133541 Wind1,9603,5974,5079693,1195,46012,0533,34435,009 Hydro3,9242,34299818,0467,8861,40130,9021,31366,811 Pumped Storage1460001,2121,41405243,296 Coal9,8759,9235,38501021383,2396,52035,182 Nuclear4,0350002,2402,2461,16009,681 Combined Cycle17,1772,2636,67024012,00713,8047,1543,58662,900 Combustion Turbine4,3771,1464,619664,7597,4287303,62926,755 Other Steam1,47634678179542,9994515626,883 Other177112120305100782471,030 Negative Bus Load243520006114032528 Dispatchable DSM1,1481,2396601,5792,9542853267,597 Total47,37522,07722,65420,15841,11346,29957,26520,833277,775 Additional resources change this number

10 3 fewer CTs needed in Basin This makes sense: 3,000 MW wind × 10% = 300 MW to peak = 3 fewer CTs

11 WY-CO Intertie TransWest Express Zephyr A /B/C/D High Plains Express Path 8 Upgrade MSTI + SWIP N Selkirk – Bell – Ashe Nicola – Chief Joe Selkirk – Ashe DC Selkirk – Buckley DC SSPG East SSPG North SSPG South High Plains Express None Centennial West Transmission Expansion Projects 3 Add transmission

12 Now to the results… 1)Resource assumption overview 2)Portfolio Case generation results (versus PC1-5 High Load) 3)Transmission projects overview 4)Expansion case generation results (versus PC1-5 High Load and Portfolio Case) 5)Path flow results - Reviewed duration plots for key WECC paths. Will show some that are interesting in this presentation.

13 + 1078 + 100 + 60 + 646 Lugo Tehachapi + 1121 Imperial Valley + 371 + 697 Gates +299 California Resource Assumptions Wind Solar PV Solar Thermal Small Hydro Geothermal Biomass RPS

14 Production cost decreased $413 M (2.4%) Dump energy increased 3 GWh (.9%) Emergency Energy decreased 0% CO2 Emissions decreased 1.1% AZ, NV, CA

15

16 Decrease from PC1 Increase from CC

17 No change Decrease from CC

18 No change Decrease from CC

19 No change

20 Results at next SWG meeting


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