1. © European Communities, 2011 Research motivation Transport and related Transport Infrastructure is the backbone of economy, trade and globalization. The current global economic recovery strongly bases on the availability of capacity of ports, highways, railways and airports. Governments are facing tremendous challenges with respect to the future development of transport infrastructure. Methodology In our research we aimed to create four different “hot topic” scenarios which are based on an innovative web- based real-time Delphi survey approach. These “hot topic” scenarios contribute to single thematic aspects which are (1) “Supply & Demand”, (2) “Finance”, (3) “Competitiveness” and (4) “Sustainability”. The 104 participating Delphi experts were based in 29 countries around the world ensuring a balanced and global view, where emerging countries amounted for a significant share of 38% and developed countries amounted for the remaining 62%. We account for Delphi’s’ past and especially for its future relevance to FTA procedures due to our methodological and usability improvements like an ‘ease-of-use facilitator portal’, a ‘consensus portal’, and a ‘graphical real-time feedback’. Results of the Delphi survey – the future scenarios The issue of transport infrastructure “supply & demand” is addressed in the first scenario; (1) infrastructure will continue to be insufficient and Transport Infrastructure initiatives are limited to focus on urban areas. The second scenario shows, that (2) due to increasing financial pressure on governments, financing of infrastructure projects becomes more and more difficult. The third scenario deals with the factor of competitiveness. (3) Transport Infrastructure and related technologies will be a deciding factor in the competition between countries to attract investments. Our fourth scenario deals with the issue of sustainability and shows that (4) environmental costs caused by infrastructure development could be a serious deterrent to investments for which there is otherwise a good economic case. Furthermore, win-win-situations might have been evolved, wherein economic and environmental issues will be considered likewise regarding infrastructure projects and business plans. Implications for Governments (1) Governments need to make sure that no shortage of transport infrastructure may harm economic and societal development. (2) Governments need to find an appropriate balance between investments in transport infrastructure and an ongoing financial commitment for the maintenance of existing facilities. Governments need to maintain, upgrade and expand transport infrastructure in order to ensure and attract foreign direct investments. Public authorities need to find strategies to share risk and responsibility with private investors for individual projects and need to offer investment incentives to make sure that rural areas will stay connected to the relevant urban hubs. (3) Governments need to ensure the availability of integrated transport and ICT infrastructure in order to safeguard economic competitiveness. Governments need to enable the fiscal participation of non-public investors to build such integrated, seamless and nationwide networks. (4) Governments need to enable eco-friendliness of transport infrastructure. Independent bodies should be established that rate transport solutions towards their environmental compatibility. Opportunities for Governments The following figure will focus on promising future opportunities related to transport infrastructure from a governmental perspective over the next 20 years. The opportunity radar is the subjective outcome of several futures workshops which were based on our four scenarios. Opportunity radar for transport infrastructure policies Contact Dr. Heiko A. von der Gracht EBS Business School, Center for Future Studies Tel. +49 (0)611 7102 2100 Fax +49 (0)611 7102 1990 E-mail: Heiko.vonderGracht@ebs.edu Study download at www.pwc.com/gx/en/transportation-logistics/tl2030 NOTES 1.Poster Title Replace the mock-up text of the poster title (”Joint Research Centre”) with the text of your own title. Keep the original font colour (100c 80m 0y 0k). Keep the flush-right justification. Set it in Helvetica Rounded Bold Condensed, if you own the typeface. Otherwise, in Arial, Helvetica or Verdana – plain or bold. Keep the original font body size (102 pt or, preferably,120 pt) and the title on a single line whenever possible. 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