1. The VALMER scenarios Dr Olivia Langmead Marine Biological Association

2. The VALMER scenarios At the previous meeting 6 scenarios were elaborated: Scenario # Scenario name Brief description 1Tidal developmentFive new tidal demonstration projects within demonstration area 2MCZsAll rMCZs designated 3Coastal changeSediment regime changes and managed realignment 4Increased nutrientsIncreased nutrients in the Taw-Torridge estuary 5Aggregate extractionExtraction of aggregates from SW Lundy within NDBR 6Blue growthDevelopment of commercial and recreational maritime sectors

3. The VALMER scenarios At the previous meeting 6 scenarios were elaborated: Scenario # Scenario name Brief description 1Tidal developmentFive new tidal demonstration projects within demonstration area 2MCZsAll rMCZs designated 3Coastal changeSediment regime changes and managed realignment 4Increased nutrientsIncreased nutrients in the Taw-Torridge estuary 5Aggregate extractionExtraction of aggregates from SW Lundy within NDBR 6Blue growthDevelopment of commercial and recreational maritime sectors 7 Local fisheries management Removal of EU regulation / replacement by local fisheries management 8Windfarm developmentAtlantic array size windfarm is developed at R3 lease site 2 scenarios added by the project team

4. 1. Tidal Five new demonstration tidal devices within North Devon tidal demonstration area (Lynmouth). Changes to activities impacting the seabed Installation of the tidal devices + cabling Exclusion zone to towed demersal gears – loss of effort (not displacement) Also impacts on other (non-seabed) activities including: Shipping – coastal leisure traffic, dredgers, sheltering vessels Fisheries – displacement of potting and lining activity / some opportunity for co-location? Diving – exclusion zone for divers

5. 1. Tidal

6. 2. MCZs All 5 rMCZs in the North Devon Biosphere Reserve area are designated. Changes to activities impacting the seabed Towed demersal gears banned from all MCZs. Displacement of some demersal activity to surrounding waters Increase in static gears within the MCZs? Also impacts on other (non-seabed) activities including: Leisure & recreation – increase in small leisure craft with increased leisure opportunities

7. 2. MCZs

8. 3. Coastal change Changes in the sediment regime in the mouth of the estuary and Bideford Bay. Changes to activities impacting the seabed New and increased dredging activity around all ports due to sediment regime changes. Managed retreat creates new saltmarshes in and around Taw-Torridge estuary. Also impacts on other (non-seabed) activities including: Yelland port closes down. Loss of large parts of the SW coast-path, leading to a decrease in tourism. Rubbish accumulation close to Braunton Burrows. Loss of infrastructure for industry. © pacificmarinegroup

9. 3. Coastal change © pacificmarinegroup [no map – deliberately left blank]

10. 4. Increased nutrients Increased nutrients in the Taw-Torridge estuary Changes to activities impacting the seabed Shellfish fisheries are lost within the estuary due to a decline in water quality Important nursery grounds for bass are lost and this has an impact on overall stocks and landings. Also impacts on other (non-seabed) activities including: Less opportunities for recreation within the estuary (e.g. kayaking, paddleboarding, leisure vessels) as the water quality decreases. © DCC

11. 4. Increased nutrients © DCC

12. 5. Aggregates Aggregates are extracted from inside the NDBR boundary Changes to activities impacting the seabed Demersal mobile gear fisheries are excluded from the extraction site and displaced to adjacent waters Also impacts on other (non-seabed) activities including: Increased traffic at Yelland with landing of aggregates © JNCC © Cefas

13. 5. Aggregates

14. 6. Blue growth Development of maritime industries Changes to activities impacting the seabed Increased dredging of channel to access Yelland Development of new marina Permanent moorings at Lundy Deepwater quay for cruise liners at Ilfracombe Also impacts on other (non-seabed) activities including: Increased leisure and recreation opportunities with new marina, more leisure craft and cruise visitors Increased business opportunities for North Devon maritime businesses © GBRMPA

15. 6. Blue growth

16. 7. Local Fisheries Management Local sustainable fisheries management Changes to activities impacting the seabed Seasonal ray box is enlarged Decrease in effort in 6-12nm zone as Belgian vessels are prohibited Decrease in effort in 0-6nm zone as local vessels disperse into 6-12nm zone Decrease in effort in S and W Bideford Bay as this becomes a key lay-off area Also impacts on other (non-seabed) activities including: Increased business opportunities for North Devon maritime businesses and within the fisheries supply chain. © Devonguide.com

17. 7. Local Fisheries Management

18. 8. Windfarm Windfarm array constructed within the R3 Zone Changes to activities impacting the seabed A windfarm array of similar size (240 turbines, 1.2GW) to the cancelled Atlantic Array is built at the Crown Estate North Devon R3 wind farm site. Cables are run onshore using the cable corridor RWE proposed. Demersal fishing is excluded from the development zone and cable corridor. This effort is lost (rather than displaced). Also impacts on other (non-seabed) activities including: Expansion of Ilfracombe port to service the development. © ceh

19. 8. Windfarm © ceh

20. With special thanks to all our partners and funders