2. U.S. Turbulence Program Update
Presented to:
World Meteorological Organization
Commission for Basic Systems
Expert Team on Aircraft-based Observing Systems
First Session
Geneva, Switzerland
September 10-13, 2013
Presented by
Tammy Farrar Research Meteorologist Weather Policy and Requirements Aviation Weather Division Federal Aviation Administration

3. Overview U.S. Turbulence Program Goals
Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) Algorithm Deployment Status
EDR Thresholds Issue
Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) Development and Enhancements
FAA/Delta Air Lines EDR/GTG Demos
Aviation Turbulence Workshop

4. U.S. Turbulence Program Goals
To provide real-time turbulence observations and accurate forecasts to air traffic management, flight crews and dispatchers to aid in the avoidance of turbulence
Improve safety
Increase airspace capacity
Enhance operations efficiency (reducing fuel burn and environmental impacts from emissions).
To quantify the benefits of providing such data in order to determine the most cost effective and optimal solutions for integrating turbulence data into flight operations.

5. Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) Algorithm
UAL: s (fleet being de-commissioned)
SWA: (Testing, close to full deployment)
DAL:
93 737s (mostly -800s with some -700s)
30 767s (mostly -300s with -400s coming online soon)
KAL: s soon (in cooperation with DAL)
“Tech Transfer” package in development at NCAR to allow airlines to implement EDR with minimal assistance

6. EDR Thresholds Issue
NCAR performing on-going statistical comparisons of EDR data with PIREPS from same or nearby aircraft
UAL: , DAL: ; thousands of samples
Results indicate the thresholds given in Annex 3 may be too high
Agrees with previously published studies by other researchers
Compared PIREPs to EDR data
3.8 min
70 km
1200 ft

7. Relation of EDR to PIREPs for medium-sized aircraft (B737,B757)
Compared EDR data to nearby PIREPs
3.8 min
70 km
1200 ft
PIREP Intensity scaled:
0-smooth, 1-smooth/light, 2 – light, 4 – moderate, 6 – severe, 8 - extreme
ICAO thresholds:
Light = 0.10
Moderate = 0.40
Severe = 0.70
Suggested new threshold values based on data from this study (median values):
Light = 0.06 (<0.1)
Moderate = 0.22 ( )
Severe = 0.5 ( )
Compared PIREPs to EDR data
3.8 min
70 km
1200 ft
0-smooth
1-smooth/light
2 – light
4 – moderate
6 – severe
8 - extreme
Courtesy Julia Pearson

8. EDR Thresholds Issue
Impacts of Annex changes on cost, operations of member states necessitate good justification and coordination ahead of time
Need for independent peer-review of the study
United States investigating how to best bring this new information to ICAO for the Divisional Meeting scheduled in July 2014
Compared PIREPs to EDR data
3.8 min
70 km
1200 ft

9. Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) Development and Enhancements
Current Operational Version
Gridded high resolution (13 km) forecasts of turbulence for FL
Preflight tool on Operational Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS)
Includes EDR observations as input
2014
Explicit mountain wave turbulence forecasts for all levels Sfc – FL450
In development
Global GTG
Convectively-induced turbulence
Probabilistic

10. DAL EDR Proof of Concept Demo
In 2008, under funding from the FAA’s Aviation Weather Research Program (AWRP), FAA and DAL launched a cooperative effort to begin integration of EDR and GTG into DAL flight operations
Initial “Proof of Concept” Demo Sep 08-Jan 10 in DAL Operations Control Center (OCC) Dispatch
Access to the EDR and GTG data provided via web-based Experimental ADDS “Turbulence Viewer” display
Initial plan was to integrate the data directly into the dispatchers’ Graphical Flight Following (GFF) displays, but due to merger with Northwest Airlines, IT resources were not available

11. DAL EDR Proof of Concept Demo
User concerns
Crew/Dispatch: Multiple (sometimes conflicting) data sources, PIREP subjectivity, cabin management, tolerance for risk
ATC: No access to real-time turbulence data in work area, ride reports passed from controller to controller during shift change, “blocked” out altitudes can persist for hours
Flight Attendants: Cabin management/ uncooperative passengers, obligation to continue duties when seatbelt sign is on
From 1980 – Jul 27, 2010, Part 121, En route
253 turbulence-related accidents2
28,934 total passengers carried
3 fatalities (0.01%), 2 were not wearing seat belts while the seat belt sign was illuminated
122 serious injuries (0.42%)
1243 flight attendants, 556 pilots
0 fatalities
204 (16.4%) serious flight attendant injuries, 0 pilot injuries
Airport closures during thunderstorms
Degraded acceptance/departure rates from terminals
Reroutes and increased fuel usage
Delays, diversions, cancellations
Increased controller workload (moving aircraft to non-turbulent altitudes, communicating info to other aircraft)
Negative impact of pilot initiated altitude deviations: “Shopping” for smooth rides--DAL studies-13% of flights changed altitude within 5 min of encountering light turbulence
1 updated here to include data through Jul 27, 2010
2 The NTSB defines an “accident” as an occurrence associated with the operations of an airplane in which any person suffers death or serious injury or in which the aircraft receives substantial damage.
1NASA Turbulence Reporting Technologies In-Service Evaluation: Delta Air Lines Report Out, April 2007

12. DAL EDR Proof of Concept Demo
Conclusions
Demo was limited in scope (product neither directly integrated into DAL applications nor actively used by entire DAL community)
Anecdotal results pointed towards an improvement in dispatcher decision-making process
Quantifying the actual benefits is difficult
Ultimately we need to determine the best means to provide the data real-time for tactical use in the cockpit

13. FAA/DAL EDR Uplink Demo
Follow-on effort to the EDR Proof of Concept Demo with DAL dispatchers and flight planners
Quantify the efficiency and capacity benefits to the NAS by providing GTG / EDR information on the flight deck
Identify feasibility of providing and displaying GTG / EDR information on the flight deck through existing WiFi link
Identify and address human factors considerations associated with providing GTG / EDR information on the flight deck

14. FAA/DAL EDR Uplink Demo Demonstration Team
FAA Weather Research Division
FAA Flight Procedures Standards Branch
FAA Concept Analysis Branch
Delta Airlines
National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
Basic Commerce & Industries (BCI)
Metron Aviation, Inc
AvMET Applications, Inc

17. FAA/DAL EDR Uplink Demo
Phase I - Complete
Jumpseat and/or maintenance flights
Assess WiFi accessibility in cockpit
EDR data conversion (Web Feature Service)
Develop alternative viewer application
Develop display application software
FAA and Delta Safety Risk Assessment
Down-select to single tablet PC (Class I/II EFB) device type for operational demonstrations
iPad selected

18. FAA/DAL EDR Uplink Demo
Phase II – Nearly Complete
Conduct HITLs to assess the human factors issues associated with the use of the tablet PCs
10 sessions
Line Check Airmen
Develop final operational demonstration procedures
Develop pilot questionnaire for operational demonstrations
Automated means to capture flight specific data and associated pilot responses
Develop tools to capture sensitivity, cost benefits, and modeling information

19. FAA/DAL EDR Uplink Demo
Phase III – On-going
Conduct 12 month operational flight demonstrations of the GTG/EDR display with 40 LCAs
Conduct analysis of LCA responses to flight crew questionnaires
Conduct NAS Capacity Benefits Quantification
Weather-ATM Analysis and Visualization Environment (WAVE) tool (AvMet Applications, Inc.)
Historical “weather-centric” ATM analysis tool & research platform
FAA’s Aircraft Situation Display to Industry (ASDI)
Weather, including turbulence
FAA Concept Analysis Branch NAS simulations

20. FAA/DAL EDR Uplink Demo Analysis Focus Areas
Workload Impacts
Pilot decision making
Flightcrew – cabin crew
Pilots – ATC
Pilots – dispatch
Safety Impacts
Aircraft cabin management
Environmental Impacts
Altitude deviations to avoid turbulence areas
Fuel requirements (greenhouse emissions)
NAS airspace reallocations

21. FAA/DAL EDR Uplink Demo Potential Risk / Constraint
Existing Supplemental Type Certificate (STC) prohibiting WiFi use in cockpit of 737NG aircraft
Possible interference with Honeywell Phase III Display Units (DU)
Mitigation procedures identified
LCA, HITL simulations, physical distance and phase of flight restrictions
DAL successfully petitioned FAA for exemption from STC for use of iPads
DAL also using Microsoft Surface tablets on 757s
FAA seeking modification to SRMD to include 757/767s

22. Turbulence Viewer

23. Profile View

24. Report Generator

25. Aviation Turbulence Workshop
Hosted by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) August 28-29, 2013, Boulder, CO
Approximately 60 participants
Air Traffic Management Community
US and international operators
Aviation forecasters
General Aviation
US National Transportation Safety Board, FAA Safety
Commercial weather providers
Issues raised: Probabilistic fcst needs, data sharing, convective turbulence, EDR <=> “feels like”, limits of the science, commercial vs GA, global harmonization
Presentations available on ftp://ftp.rap.ucar.edu/pub/sharman/Aviation_Turbulence_Workshop/

26. Questions?
Compared PIREPs to EDR data
3.8 min
70 km
1200 ft

27. Questions?