1. Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS) 1 Thomas Jung Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research 25 February 2014

2.  A short introduction to GIPPS  Implementation of GIPPS WWRP Polar Prediction Project WCRP Polar Climate Predictability Initiative Presentation by Vladimir Ryabinin  Coordination Outline

3.  Global Integrated Polar Prediction System Global: International effort and poles have global influences Integrated: Interconnection between systems and system will be integrated (research, observations and services) Polar prediction will be central  Three time scales Short-term prediction (hours to seasonal) Medium-term predictability (seasonal to decadal) Long-term projection of ice mass balance and sea level (centuries) GIPPS

4.  Improved understand of key processes that drive polar weather and climate  Improved models  Improved data assimilation systems  Optimized observing system  Improved services (e.g. shipping and long-term planning) Benefits

5. The WWRP Polar Prediction Project (2013-2022) 5

6. Some statements from the report:  The Arctic is likely to attract substantial investment over the coming decade ($100 bn)  The environmental consequences of disasters in the Arctic are likely to be worse than in other regions  Significant knowledge gaps across the Arctic need to be closed urgently  http://www.lloyds.com/news- and-insight/risk- insight/reports/climate- change/arctic-report-2012 http://www.lloyds.com/news- and-insight/risk- insight/reports/climate- change/arctic-report-2012 Opportunities and Risks

7. PPP Mission Statement „Promote cooperative international research enabling development of improved weather and environmental prediction services for the polar regions, on time scales from hourly to seasonal“ An important addition: „This constitutes the hourly to seasonal research component of the WMO Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS)“ 7

8. The WWRP-PPP Steering Group 8  Jonny Day (APECS liasion)  Neil Gordon (WMO consultant) SG4, Boulder, 1-3 October 2013  Thomas Jung (chair)  Peter Bauer  David Bromwich  Paco Doblas-Reyes  Chris Fairall  Marika Holland  Trond Iversen  Brian Mills  Pertti Nurmi  Don Perovich  Phil Reid  Ian Renfrew  Gregory Smith  Gunilla Svensson  Mikhail Tolstykh

9. WWRP-PPP Plans

10. Research Areas Source: PPP Implementation Plan

11. Connections – p24 of PPP IP 11

12. Observational Challenges Polar data coverage of conventional observations in the ECMWF operational analysis on 1 January 2012 Synop, AIREP, DRIBU, TEMP and PILOT P. Bauer (ECMWF)

13. Role of Sea Ice in Weather Prediction T2m Difference: Observed Minus Persisted Sea Ice P. Bauer (ECMWF)

14. Sea ice prediction MITgcm @ 4km resolution, Simulation desribed in Nguyen et al (2012) and Rignot et al. (2012) Mean September sea ice concentrations (1979-2007)

15. PPP Flagship Activities  Sea ice prediction Explore predictability Develop prediction systems  Linkages between polar regions and lower-latitudes Determine mechanisms and strengths Implications for predictions in the mid-latitudes  Improved availability of observations from polar regions  The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)

16. Preparation Phase 2013 to mid-2017 Consolidation Phase mid-2019 to 2022 Community engagement Liaise with funders Align with other planned activities Preparatory research Summer school Workshops Develop imple- mentation plan Intensive observing periods Dedicated model experiments Research into use & value of forecasts Intensive verification effort Model developments Dedicated reanalyses Operational implementation YOPP publications Data denial experiments Preparation Phase 2013 to mid-2017 YOPP mid- 2017 to mid- 2019 Consolidation Phase mid- 2019 to 2022 YOPP conference Summer school Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)

17. YOPP Key Elements  Comprehensive observational snapshot In situ and satellite data Observing system design (data denial experiments) Supersites (model grid boxes  MOSAiC)  Model development (e.g. Transpose-CMIP)  Community data sets (reforecasts, special archiving etc.)  Frontier experiments (e.g. high-resolution modelling)  See draft YOPP Implementation Plan – Inf. 12-1

18. Immediate Plans – ASSW / AOS-2 Helsinki  8 April 2014  One day YOPP Planning meeting – emphasis on observations and many partners invited (including IICWG)  9 April 2014  Thomas Jung will take part in Stakeholders Panel as part of AOS-2 on 9 April  “Town Hall Meeting” with panel discussing PPP/YOPP in evening (panelists include Gilbert Brunet, Thomas Jung and Mark Drinkwater) 18

19. Immediate Plans WWOSC & Linkages  16-21 August 2014  PPP session at World Weather  Open Science Conference, Montréal  PPP-SG-5 meeting in association with this will “finalise” YOPP Plan  10-12 December 2014  International Workshop on Polar-lower Latitudes Linkages and Their Role in Weather and Climate Prediction – being planned for Barcelona. Invitation only; collaboration between PPP and PCPI 19

20. PPP – Take home messges  Polar prediction is a topic of increasing importance  Decision making in the high-latitudes  Implications for the lower-latitudes  PPP promotes research in polar prediction  PPP also promotes research into the use and value of polar predictions in decision making  PPP has a strong educational component  PPP flagship themes  Sea ice prediction  Linkages between polar and non-polar regions  YOPP (see draft YOPP Implementation Plan)

21. Coordination  EC-PORS  International Polar Partnership Initiative (IPPI)  PPP and PCPI

22. International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction

23. Recommendations of EC-PORS to Cg-17 Points Raised Earlier:  Regular feedback on progress  Coordination between PPP and PCPI, and role of ICO for Polar Prediction at AWI  Coordination with other organisations  Promote GIPPS with  Member states (Trust Fund)  Funding agencies  Consider GIPPS funding from regular WMO budget Suggestion:  Draft proposal to be discussed and possibly revised in Research break out group  Discussion of the outcome with all panel members

24. Thank you! 24