1. Selecting Methods for Assessing Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change and the Role of the Compendium Presented to: UNFCCC Compendium on Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation Methods Presented by: Joel B. Smith Stratus Consulting Inc. December 7, 2004

2. Outline How analytic tools should be selected Some experience with how they have been selected Role of Compendium in providing assistance on tool selection

3. How Analytic Tools Should Be Selected It is critical to remember that we should not look to models or other analytic tools to give us answers, but to provide insight

4. So We Should Not “Believe” What Comes Out of Analytic Tools Remember that models are simplifications of reality They can particularly useful for examining complex situations such as climate change Using models not always necessary

5. It’s Important that the Choice of Analytic Tools be Appropriate for the Situation First, the tool should provide meaningful outputs Choice depends on question being asked So, the outputs need to be relevant to policy questions Second, the choice of the tools needs to be appropriate for carrying out the research. Depends on: Capacity of user to apply the tool Availability of data Availability of money and time

6. U.S. Country Studies Made Tool Selection Easy Involved ~50 countries Training, software, and data were provided for one set of models Were relatively easy to apply Generally required minimal data Mostly biophysical models Some adaptation Where more complicated models tried, some difficulties: importance of capacity building and training Models may not have been appropriate for all situations

7. UNEP Country Studies Provided a Choice of Approaches Fewer countries (6) and more in-depth Selection of models was heavily influenced by which technical advisor was sent to work with the country team In some cases, more complex models were applied

8. “Second Generation” Approaches Stakeholder Driven This puts more of a premium on selection of appropriate analytic tools (if such tools can help) Need to provide information relevant to stakeholder questions. Model needs to be “trusted” by stakeholders Can result in myriad of models and other approaches being requested: more pressure on technology transfer mechanisms Is a real need for comprehensive information on analytic choices

9. Value of the Compendium Presents brief information on many analytic options in concise and accessible format Options vary in detail of output, difficulty of use, and cost User does not have to invest a lot of time to get a basic overview of choices Since it is on the web, the Compendium is easy to access — and is free! Freely available or low cost tools is an important way to transfer technologies