1. CBS EXPERT TEAM ON EXTENDED AND LONG-RANGE FORECASTING 26~30 March 2012, Geneva, Switzerland Suhee Park Korea Meteorological Administration WMO Lead Center for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (LC-LRFMME) : Status/progress report

2. Contents Contents History of WMO LC-LRFMME Function of WMO LC-LRFMME WMO Global Producing Centre (GPC) Data collection Products and Activities of WMO LC-LRFMME Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Summary

3. www.themegallery.com2005 WMO GPC meeting (October, Korea) - KMA suggested the need of LC-LRFMME. The joint ET of DPFS agreed needs of Lead Center(s) for collection of globally available LRF to build MMEs (April, England). WMO CCL meeting (November, China) - KMA presented the need for establishing LC-LRFMME. KMA, jointly with NCEP, completed submission of Lead Center application form to the WMO (September). WMO CBS-Ext.06 (November, Korea) - The commission encouraged GPCs to provide their data to LC-LRFMME. WMO Meeting of the ET on Extended and LRF (April, China). - Redefining the goal and functions of LC-LRFMME WMO/KMA GPC Workshop (September, Korea) - Refining needs for and functions of LC-LRFMME LC-LRFMME established the data exchange system (June).2007 2006 2008 2009 WMO CBS-XIV (April, Croatia) - LC-LRFMME was officially endorsed. History & Acknowledgement History & Acknowledgement

4. Primary Functions Functions of LC-LRFMME Functions of LC-LRFMME Maintains a repository of documentation for the system configuration of all GPC LRF systems Collects an agreed set of forecast data from GPCs Generates an agreed set of Lead Centre (LC) products Redistributes digital forecast data for those GPC’s that allow it Handles requests for the password for the website and data distribution

5. Data collection Data collection BeijingCPTECECMWFEXETERMelbourneMontrealMoscowPretoriaSeoulTokyoToulouseWashington (BCC)(CPTEC)(ECMWF)(EXETER)(POAMA)(MSC)(HMC)(SAWS)(GDAPS)(TCC)(toulouse)(NCEP) Forecasting range 3 months6 months 5 months6 months3 months 6 months9 months data Format binGrib1grib1 grib2grib1 Forecast period 2008.02~2009.12~2009.02~2009.09~2008.07~2011~2008.02~2009.08~2007.11~2010.02~2009.02~2008.02~ collected data Ensemble mean (raw), Ensemble (raw), Ensemble (raw) Ensemble mean (raw), Ensemble (raw) ensemble Mean (ano), Ensemble (ano) ensemble mean (raw) Ensemble (raw, ano) Ensemble (raw) Ensemble mean (raw), Ensemble (raw) Ensemble mean (ano), ensemble (ano) Ensemble mean (raw) Ensemble mean (raw, ano), Ensemble (raw, ano) ensemble Mean (raw, ano) ensemble mean (ano), Ensemble (ano) members815414230 20 (2model x 10) 10620514140 Hindcast period 1983~1979~20011981~20051989~20021980~20061981~20101979~20031982~20011979~1979~20081979~20071981~2004 collected data Ensemble mean (raw), Ensemble (raw), climatology Ensemble (raw), climatology x Ensemble mean (raw) Ensemble (raw) Ensemble (raw), climatology Ensemble mean (raw), Ensemble (raw) x Ensemble mean (raw), Ensemble (raw), climatology Ensemble (raw) x Ensemble (raw) members810111210 20 (4model x 10) 10620101115 additional parameter (without parameter) U850, V850, U200, V200 -- U850, V850, U200, V200, olr, Tsfc U850, V850,U200, V200 (SST) (SST) U850, V850,U200, V200 (SST) U850, V850, U200, V200 -- resolution : 144x73, basic parameter : rain, mslp, t2m, z500, t850, sst, blue shading: tier-2, peach shading: coupled

6. 1 3 5 7 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 31 Collecting time of GPC data GPCCollecting time Beijing10~15th CPTEC14~17th ECMWF14~17th EXETER14~18th Melbourne12~15th Montreal1~3th Moscow11~16th Pretoria14~17th Seoul12~14th Tokyo18~20th Toulouse14~18th Washington14~18th Period of producing forecast data & Homepage display Period of producing forecast data & Homepage display Period of research relevant to GSCU Collecting time of each GPCs data Collecting time of each GPCs data

7. http://www.wmolc.org No. of Members : 343 members from 78 countries Links to 12 GPCs LC-LRFMME Website LC-LRFMME Website

8. Membership & Data upload/download/plot Membership & Data upload/download/plot Grade A (GPCs) :- Upload & Download Digital data(limited) - Download Image plots Grade B (NMHSs, RCCs) : - Download Digital data(limited) & Image plots Grade C (Others) : - Image plots Membership Grades & Access  Access to data is available for registered members only.

9. GPC digital data and graphical products in standard format available from LC-LRFMME LC-LRFMME Products LC-LRFMME Products Digital productsGraphical products - Both forecast and hindcast of monthly mean anomalies of the GPC ‘s ensemble mean for lead 1~3), following the month of submissions  2m surface temperature  Precipitation  Mean sea level pressure  850hPa temperature  500hPa geopotential height  Sea surface temperature - Individual forecast  plots for each GPC forecast anomalies in common graphical format (Rectangular, Time series, Stereographic type, etc.)  Consistency map  SST Plume (Nino3.4 SST anomalies) - Deterministic Multi-model Ensemble  Simple composite mean(SCM)  Regular Multiple Regression  Sigular Value Decomposition(SVD) - Probabilistic Multi-model Ensemble  tercile-based categorical probabilities Digital products Graphical products

10. Products Ⅰ : 6 Parameters Products Ⅰ : 6 Parameters 850hPa Temperature Mean Sea Level Pressure Precipitation 2m Temperature Sea Surface Temperature 500hPa GPH

11. Products Ⅱ : 12 GPCs Products Ⅱ : 12 GPCs BeijingECMWFExeter MelbourneMontrealMoscow WashingtonToulouseTokyoSeoul CPTEC Pretoria

12. AprilMay AMJ Forecast Time Monthly mean Monthly mean 3-month mean 3-month mean Products Ⅲ : Period Products Ⅲ : Period June

13. Rectangular Time Series Stereographic Products Ⅳ : Map Types Products Ⅳ : Map Types All Map Consistency Map SST Plume

14. AO Products Ⅴ : Indices Products Ⅴ : Indices

15. Simple MME MME Plot of LC-LRFMME MME Plot of LC-LRFMME

16. Biased-Corrected Ensemble Mean Regular Multiple Regression Singular Value Decomposition MME Production : Deterministic MME MME Production : Deterministic MME

17. MME Production : Probabilistic MME MME Production : Probabilistic MME  Since June 2011, categorical probabilities for terciles based on the Probabilistic Multi Model Ensemble (PMME) prediction system have been synthesized.

18. WMOLC-LRFMME Activities of LC-LRFMME Activities of LC-LRFMME Support for RCOFs Support for epidemic control In the spring of 2009 PRESAO, GHACOF, FOCRAII In the winters of 2007 and 2008 climate prediction for the African region WMO, IRI, SADC Drought Monitoring Centre Training Improvement of Meteorological Disaster Responsiveness for African Countries (May 2009) Climate Variability and Predictions in South Asia, Eastern and Southeastern Africa (June 2009)

19. LC-LRFMME established by GPC-Seoul and GPC-Washington is fully functional and meets the requirements set by the “Expert Team on Extended and Long-Range Forecasts (ET-ELRF)” LC-LRFMME standardizes GPCs’ data for better usage of WMO Members and has already entertained requests from RCOFs LC-LRFMME would be a valuable asset to the long-range forecast communities LC-LRFMME makes an important contribution to increasing the resources available for disaster prevention and mitigation, and for better social-economic planning www.themegallery.com Summary Summary

20. Thank you!