1. Lakeview Area – Predicted PM 2.5 Concentrations from Rollback and Dispersion Modeling Results August 22, 2013

2. Background Conduct a rollback analysis and air dispersion modeling Part of a larger picture to identify a source’s contribution to high PM2.5 concentrations Rollback modeling estimates concentrations using emissions data and a distance weighting factor Emission Inventory Modeling = Future estimated concentrations at the monitor and the area around the monitor Helps us determine whether Lakeview will meet the standard in 2019

3. Initial Rollback Modeling Results If everything remains the same, Lakeview is not anticipated to meet the standard

4. Weighted Emissions Inventory Results – Contributing Sources (2019)

6. Dispersion Modeling Results of Industrial Source Emissions

7. Potential Reduction Scenarios 1. Remove all uncertified stoves and replace with certified stoves 2. Remove all uncertified stoves and replace with heat pumps 3. Enhanced public awareness and education 4. Mandatory woodstove curtailment program

8. Uncertified Woodstoves How many uncertified woodstoves are in the Lakeview area (2013)? ◦ ~154 uncertified devices in UGB ◦ ~256 uncertified devices in SPZ ◦ Includes recent changeouts from Department of Energy/Department of Housing funds administered by SCOEDD

9. Current Conditions - UGB

10. Change out all wood stoves for Certified Stoves- UGB

11. Change out all wood stoves for Non-wood Alternatives - UGB

12. What If Scenarios - Results What-If Scenarios 2019 (ug/m 3 ) 1) Status Quo36.4 2) Increased Public Awareness /Education34.6 3) Mandatory Woodstove Curtailment Advisory26.8 4) Replace Uncertified Woodstoves with Certified Woodstoves + Public Education 30.4 5) Replace Uncertified Woodstoves with Heat Pumps + Public Education 25

16. What If Scenarios - Results What-If Scenarios 2019 (ug/m 3 ) 1) Status Quo36.4 2) Increased Public Awareness /Education34.6 3) Mandatory Woodstove Curtailment Advisory26.8 4) Replace Uncertified Woodstoves with Certified Woodstoves + Public Education 30.4 5) Replace Uncertified Woodstoves with Heat Pumps + Public Education 25

17. Options to consider What is the target planning threshold to meet for PM2.5 concentration? ◦ Current standard – 35 ug/m3 ◦ Other value to provide additional buffer– 30 ug/m3? Do you want an interim year in the planning horizon (2017)?

18. Brainstorming Ideas

19. Additional Slides

20. Estimated Woodstove Emissions Lbs/day Design Day