1. Models for Success Mick Fletcher FE College Staff Governors Conference 2008

2. The Chronology November 2007 Denham’s AoC Speech August 2008 ‘Models for Success’ September 2008 The Evidence Base Evidence informed policy or policy informed evidence?

3. John Denham “Many colleges are proposing mergers, though there is no evidence that larger colleges provide more effective education. Is this the way we should go, or should we be ensuring that there is real choice and competition between providers?”

4. Models for Success “ We will continue to apply the principle of competition and contestability to ensure that high quality learning and training opportunities are available to all, welcoming new providers….”

5. The Webb Review “One driver of efficiency is so called ‘contestability’ in the form of market competition. It requires confident, well informed consumers who can choose between many competing providers. However public services were invented, in part, because such conditions are often absent…”

6. Welsh Assembly Government “Notwithstanding the improvements to provider delivery there is substantial evidence to show that there are too many small school sixth forms and, in a few areas, too many secondary schools. In addition, there is a large number of further education and work-based training providers in Wales and rationalisation would help strengthen strategic management, improve efficiency and better meet current and future demand for relevant high quality education and training delivery”

7. Double standards? “Where colleges propose a merger we will expect to see robust evidence that all other options have been considered and that merger is the best option …” (Models for Success, page 10) “[The 6 th form presumption] permits proposals for new post-16 provision from high performing specialist schools that … opt for a vocational specialism. ….there is a presumption of approval” (Models for Success, page 11)

8. The Evidence Is there evidence that competition works? Is there evidence that specialisation works? Is there evidence that 6 th forms increase participation? Is there evidence that scale affects performance? Is there evidence that scale affects choice?

9. Impact of Competition “on balance choice and competition does not seem to be generally effective in raising standards in the school context” Competition, Choice and Pupil Achievement’ Gibbons, S. et al CEE 2006

10. Economies of Scale

12. Source: Tribal education Scale Effects Range of subjects by cohort size

13. Size and Quality

14. Inspection & size - GFE colleges

15. Inspection & size – 6F colleges Sixth Form Colleges – average inspection grades plotted against FTEs

16. Greater focus: Specialisation and quality (more specialised)(less specialised) (Low success) (High Success) Predicted relationship

17. Participation: the sixth form effect

18. Source: NFER 2006 Participation by Area

19. Models for Colleges Collaborative delivery –Lead provider –Representative structure –Joint committee –Company –Employer-led specialist networks –Working with the third sector Trusts –Unincorporated association –Company –Charitable incorporated organisation Trust schools Academy Sponsor

20. How should colleges respond to ‘Models’? Look for “robust evidence that all other options have been considered and that [the government’s latest wheeze] is the best option”