1. Kate Sweeney, HSE Chief Statistician
Latest injury trends, impact of the economy and using statistics to make the case for Health and Safety
Kate Sweeney, HSE Chief Statistician
SBTAF, 19 May 2014

2. Overview of the latest injury statistics

3. Fatal injuries in the workplace
Fatalities to workers reduced in 2012/13 (148 compared with 171 in 2011/12)
Evidence of a levelling off in downward trend over past 5 years

4. Underlying trend in RIDDOR data
Change to Over-7-Day reporting from Over-3-Day reduced reports by approximately 30% (no suggestion that the change affected major injury reporting)
Modelling suggests the underlying trend is still downwards for the whole economy series

5. Impact of the economic cycle on injury rates
Previous research has shown a pro-cyclical effect i.e. injury rates increase when the economy grows and fall when it shrinks
New modelling has been undertaken to include the latest recession
Confirms the previous findings with strongest effects in construction and manufacturing

6. Injury rates by job tenure
Injury rate for those in post for less than 6 months three times as high as rate for more experienced workers
Same effect seen across all sectors
(Labour Force Survey, 2006/07-10/11)

7. Does this mean the recovery will reverse injury trends?
Some upward pressure expected but difficult to quantify the likely impact
Best estimate is that 10-15% of the falls seen in injury rates over the latest recession were due to the economic cycle (closer to 20% for construction)
Hence 85-90% of the reduction was NOT due to the recession i.e. there is still an underlying downward trend

8. Making the case for intervention

9. Three key drivers for intervention on health and safety
Moral Case
Economic case
Legal Case

10. The Moral Case
All workers have a fundamental right to work in an environment where risks to health and safety are properly controlled.
[Health and safety Strategy of GB]

11. The Moral Case – how are we doing?
Over the last decade, on average each year circa:
200 workplace fatal injuries
workplace injuries resulting in more than 7 days absence
premature deaths from occupational disease
new cases of work-related illness

12. The economic case - What is the economic impact of illness and injury?
Individual
Employer
Government
Lost working time
Lost income/production 
Production disturbance
Admin costs
Other incurred financial costs eg healthcare costs, compensation, legal costs
Monetised value of pain grief and suffering

13. Statistics about lost working time
Data on days lost are available from the Labour Force Survey
Respondents report the actual duration of their absence and this is converted to full-time equivalents
In 2011/12, around 27.0 million working days were lost in total,
22.7 million due to work-related illness;
4.3 million due to workplace injuries.
equivalent to around lost work years

14. Trends in working days lost
The number of working days lost has fallen over the last decade
reflects the fall in illness and injury case numbers
Estimated working days lost due to work-related incidents
Note: average sampling variability +/- 9% on the total

15. Average days lost per incident
More days taken (on average) for a case of ill health than an injury

16. The HSE cost model
HSE analysts have developed a model to monetise the cost of work-related illness and workplace injury
The model aims to reflect the economic costs of injuries and common ill health conditions arising from current working conditions
The model estimates both financial costs (monetary costs) and non-financial costs (monetary values given to individuals’ ‘pain, grief and suffering’)
Costs are apportioned between individuals, employers and government

17. HSE cost model - inputs Incidents Costs Fatal injuries
Non-fatal injuries (measured by LFS)
New cases of work-related illness (LFS)
Costs
Wide range of sources for information on financial costs e.g. ONS surveys on earnings, NHS data on treatment costs etc

18. HSE Cost model - results
Cost in 2010/11 is estimated at £13.8bn (2011 prices)
£8.4bn illness; £5.4bn injury
Big cost – but how big is big?
Cost of road casualties - £15bn in 2010
NHS England budget 2013/14 - £95bn
2012 floods cost UK economy £600m

19. Who bears the cost? More than half the cost in borne by individuals
Breakdown of costs to society by cost bearer, 2010/11

20. How do the costs break down?
Largest factor is pain, grief and suffering

21. Estimated cost has fallen around £2.5bn since 2006/07
Recent trends
Estimated cost has fallen around £2.5bn since 2006/07
Total cost of workplace injuries (including fatalities) and ill health in Great Britain, 2006/07–2010/11 (2011 prices)

22. The economic case – statistics to quantify the economic impact
Can also estimate unit or ‘per case’ costs
Used for policy appraisal
Overall Unit cost / Appraisal value
Unit cost to Employer
Workplace Fatal Injury
£1,576,000
£138,000
Reportable injury
£23,500
£3,700
Non-reportable injury
£700
£80
Ill health
£16,700
£4,000

23. Find out more
Statistics website
Cost information
Days lost tables