1. MUCM going forward Team Meeting, July 2009

2. MUCM2  Two year project  Starting 1 st October 2010  Finishing 30 th September 2012  People  Continuation for most of our RAPS  But only at 50% FTE (equivalent to just 12 months each)  We have to get other funding to run alongside MUCM2  Flexibility will be essential  Team working even more important  Continuation for Jo (40%), me (20%), co-investigators (10%)

3. Research  Exploring and scoping new areas  Developing only far enough to break the ground  Publish initial findings and/or case studies  Draw up research proposals  Objective is to set up grants and contracts to tackle these new areas  And so to take MUCM forward beyond MUCM2  Four workpackages 1. Random outputs 2. Informing decisions 3. Heterogeneity 4. Building the community

4. Random outputs  Different types of random simulators  Micro-simulation models in health economics  Agent-based models  Systems biology models  Stochastic finite elements models  Challenges  Emulating a distribution  Design  Model discrepancy  Calibration  Dynamic emulation  Extremes  Superparametrisation

5. Workpackages 2 and 3  Informing decisions  Optimisation  Coupling models  Decisions that expand models  Fitness for purpose  Risk metrics  Heterogeneity  Discontinuities  Heterogeneous variance

6. Building the community  Toolkit  More introductory material and examples  New stuff, too  Short courses  At conferences in targeted application areas  Video podcasts/seminars  Linked to/from toolkit  Website  Community resource .ac.uk address  Sustainability

7. Where does this leave MUCM?  We must complete the research programme  MUCM2 is not there to finish things we didn’t complete in MUCM  Workpackages based on doing new research will deliver  Themes 1 and 2, plus 3.1  But concentrate now on completing research, publications  We have to make special efforts to deliver on -  Toolkit  Case studies  MUCM will be judged on these  Management becomes important again!