1. Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Projecting not Predicting Projecting Not Predicting – How external influences can impact Adam Peacock Principal Development Officer - Research

2. Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Projecting not Predicting This presentation will cover: What do population projections tell us? Population projections over time Examples of how external influences can impact on population projections Using local intelligence to inform existing projections

3. Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Projecting not Predicting Population Projections A projection is a view of something in the future, based on present data or trends. Provide us with a view of our population if current trends were set to continue

4. Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Projecting not Predicting Key input to long-term fiscal projections Future expenditure on benefits and pensions Key input for analysis on policy areas such as extending working lives Future school pupil numbers Resource planning and healthcare provision Key input to official household projections Grant formulation to local authorities Academic researchers, private companies for market research What are projections used for?

5. Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Projecting not Predicting Latest mid-year population estimates as a starting point The population is aged on (apart from the armed forces population) A projected number of births is added on A projected number of deaths are subtracted Adjustment made for projected net migration How are the projections produced?

6. Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Projecting not Predicting Projection Assumptions Recent trends in fertility, mortality and migration will continue Built on an average of five years of historic local level data

7. Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Projecting not Predicting Assumption Sources AssumptionSource Birth and death rates Civil Registration System Internal migrationPatient Data Register System Student movesHigher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) International migration - International passenger Survey - Labour Force Survey - Home Office - National Asylum Support Services

8. Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Projecting not Predicting Latest Population Projection Lincolnshire Projection Population 2008 - 2033 838,200 (21%) 411,100 (3%) 256,500 (84%) 170,700 (8%)

9. Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Projecting not Predicting Local Population Projections Over Time Projected Lincolnshire Population, 2003 - 2033

10. Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Projecting not Predicting National Population Projections Over Time Projected Population, 2003 - 2035

11. Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Projecting not Predicting Difference in Projected UK Population at 2005 by component, selected projections National Population Projections Over Time

12. Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Projecting not Predicting Projections are not forecasts They do not attempt to predict the impact of: -Changing economic circumstances -Future government policies (whether in the UK or overseas) They also take no account of the capacity of areas to accommodate population

13. Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Projecting not Predicting Changing Economic Circumstances Over 70,000 people

14. Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Projecting not Predicting Projected and Estimated Population for Lincoln City 3,000 people

15. Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Projecting not Predicting Lincoln City 16 – 24 Population 10,600 16 - 24 year olds

16. Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Projecting not Predicting Putting this into Practice Growth points Current economic conditions Lincoln Eastern Bypass

17. Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Projecting not Predicting What does this tell us and what can we do? Demographic behaviour is inherently uncertain Act with a knowledge of the likely limitations of population projections Use local intelligence and knowledge

18. Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Projecting not Predicting Estimated and Projected Population of the UK 2000 - 2035

19. Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Projecting not Predicting What does this tell us and what can we do? Demographic behaviour is inherently uncertain Act with a knowledge of the likely limitations of population projections Use local intelligence and knowledge and apply it to nationally produced local level population projections Consider alternative future views of Lincolnshire’s population

20. Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Projecting not Predicting Housing Scenarios

21. Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Projecting not Predicting Migration Scenarios

22. Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Projecting not Predicting Jobs Scenario

23. Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Projecting not Predicting Ageing Population

24. Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Projecting not Predicting So what have we covered? What projections tell us about the future population How these projections are produced and the assumptions used Populations projections are just that – a projection Some alternative scenarios of population growth in Lincolnshire

25. Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk Projecting not Predicting Any Questions?