1. The Scottish Question James Mitchell School of Social & Political Science University of Edinburgh ONE YEAR TO GO UNTIL THE REFERENDUM: UK@s CHANGING CONSTIUTUTION Pierheadm, Cardiff 17 September 2013

2. An historic event “It is now up to the people of Scotland to make that historic decision. The very future of Scotland depends on their verdict. It is that important. This agreement delivers the people’s referendum.” Prime Minister Cameron, October 2012 "I'm honoured to announce that, on Thursday the 18th of September 2014, we will hold Scotland's referendum - a historic day when the people will decide Scotland's future.“ First Minister Salmond, March 2013

3. The Scottish Question Constitutional Party political Public policy Identity

4. Adversarial Politics

5. Identity

6. PUBLIC POLICY CHALLENGES DEMOGRAPHIC Over the next 20 years demography alone could increase expenditure on health and social care by 70 per cent. 1,042,00 pensioners in 2010 1,315,000 pensioners by 203 FINANCIAL ‘… a long hard financial winter, which will require very difficult choices to be made about priorities’ Auditor General June 2010 INSTITUTIONAL ‘For a small country, Scotland has a plethora of institutions, including 32 local authorities, 23 NHS bodies, 8 police forces, 20 universities, 43 colleges, and over 1000 other public bodies.’ Independent Budget Review report July 2010. ECONOMY ‘…there was a clear sentiment that the economic environment and opportunity for economic growth is the foundation to provide skills, employment, opportunity and public services for Scotland’s people. This remains the case, whatever constitutional option was pursued’. SCDI May 2013 ENVIRONMENTAL ‘Things are different in Scotland, whether one is discussing water resources, conservation, rural development, or any other aspect of the multi- faceted natural and human environment. The resulting issues and debates are sometimes unique, invariably complex, and endlessly fascinating, quite apart from being of huge importance for the people and land of Scotland.’ Charles Warren, Managing Scotland’s Environment 2002

7. ‘I have to ask what is progressive about a banker on more than 100,000 a year benefitting more than a customer on average incomes from the council tax freeze? What is progressive about a chief executive on more than 100,000 a year not paying for his prescriptions, while a pensioner needing care has their care help cut? What is progressive about judges and lawyers earning more than 100,000 a year, not paying tuition fees for their child to follow in their footsteps at university, while one in four unemployed young people in Scotland can’t get a job or a place at college? I believe our resources must go to those in greatest need. But if the devil’s greatest trick was to convince the world he didn’t exist, Salmond’s most cynical trick was to make people believe that more was free, when the poorest are paying for the tax breaks for the rich. Alex Salmond is quick to point to the high levels of welfare in Scandinavia but those universal benefits are paid for by high levels of taxation. Scotland cannot be the only something for nothing country in the world.’ September 25, 2012 Labour’s policy review

8. PUBLIC FINANCES

9. Demography 'Governing with Scarce Resources' 2011 Census: ∙ More people over 65 (16% of pop) than under 15 (17%) for first time ∙ Av no. of people per square kilometre is 69 (amongst lowest in EU) but huge variations

10. Public policy

11. Organisation within a Health Board 32 local Authorities 'Governing with Scarce Resources' Institutional Police Service Fire & Rescue

12. Competing ‘mindsets’: a campaigning mindset that blocks compromise and a governing mindset that inclines decision-makers to respect opponents and find common objectives and outcomes.

13. The IRISH QUESTION ‘Gladstone spent his declining years trying to guess the answer to the Irish Question; unfortunately, whenever he was getting warm, the Irish secretly changed the Question.’ W.C. Sellar and R.J. Yeatman (1930), 1066 and All That, Methuen and Co Ltd.