1. EC Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) Mike Moran Air Quality Research Division Environment Canada, Toronto, Ontario Mtg on AQ Data Assimilation and Fusion R&D, 16-17 Jan. 2012, Downsview, ON

2. Short overview of current EC RAQDPS What are the AQ outputs? How are they generated? How good are they? Future plans Talk Outline

3. Follows example of Canadian national UV index Year-round, health-based, additive, no-threshold, hourly AQ index Developed from daily time-series analysis of air pollutant concentrations and mortality data (Stieb et al., 2008) Weighted sum of NO 2, O 3, & PM 2.5 concentrations 0 to 10+ range AQHI: Canada’s National Air Quality Health Index

5. Primary messaging tool is the AQHI Main target is urban areas > 100,000 population Current RAQDPS is GEM-MACH15, a coupled AQ / Wx forecast model that provides twice-daily 48-hour forecasts of hourly AQHI component (NO 2, O 3, PM 2.5 ) fields, other AQ fields, and meteorological fields UMOS-AQ/MIST statistical post-processing package combines GEM-MACH15 predicted AQ and met fields with previous day’s NO 2, O 3, and PM 2.5 measurements to forecast hourly AQHI component values at AQ station locations (data fusion step:  large reduction in bias) Canadian AQ Forecasting System

6. GEM-MACH is a multi-scale, first-principles, chemical weather forecast model composed of dynamics, physics, and in-line chemistry modules GEM-MACH15 is a particular configuration of GEM-MACH chosen to meet EC’s operational AQ forecast needs; its key characteristics include: –limited-area-model (LAM) grid configuration for North America –15-km horizontal grid spacing, 58 vertical levels to 0.1 hPa –2-bin sectional representation of PM size distribution (i.e., 0-2.5 and 2.5-10 μm) with 9 chemical components (SO4, NO3, NH4, EC, POA, SOA, CM, S-S, H2O) –forecast species include O 3, NO 2, and PM 2.5 needed for AQHI plus other gas- and particle-phase concentration and flux fields GEM-MACH and GEM-MACH15

7. GEM-LAM15 is EC’s limited-area regional weather forecast model GEM-MACH15’s grid points are co-located with GEM-LAM15 grid points GEM-LAM15 supplies meteorological initial conditions and lateral boundary conditions to GEM-MACH15 GEM-LAM15 and GEM-MACH15 Grids GEM-LAM15 core grid (blue); GEM-MACH15 grid (red)

8. AQ forecasting is a mixed IV/BV problem GEM-MACH15 is a source-oriented prognostic deterministic Eulerian model Pollutant and precursor emissions from all sources are a key input to GEM-MACH, including natural sources such as biogenic emissions, sea salt, wildfires, wind-blown dust, and lightning NOx (only biogenic emissions and sea salt are included now) Key GEM-MACH15 Inputs: Emissions (1)

9. Accuracy of input emissions fields is limited by (a) accuracy of emissions inventories and (b) accuracy of emissions processing (spatial, temporal, and size disaggregation, chemical speciation) Only emissions from large U.S. power plants are directly measured (but are not known in future); all other emissions are estimated Key GEM-MACH15 Inputs: Emissions (2)

10. Estimated 2011 Annual NO Emissions on GEM-MACH15 Domain

11. Estimated 2011 Annual NH 3 Emissions on GEM-MACH15 Domain

12. Sample Spatial Surrogates – Saskatchewan Primary Highways (red) and Secondary Highways (blue)

13. Temporal Surrogate – LDGV Diurnal Profiles for Weekdays vs. Weekends (FEVER data)

14. Currently use static climatological seasonal vertical profiles for all species (limiting!) Only CO varies in space Reasonably good approximation for reactive short-lived species, less so for medium- to long-lived species such as PM, O 3, and CO Advantageous to locate lateral boundaries over “clean” regions such as oceans Key GEM-MACH15 Inputs: Chemical Lateral Boundary Conditions

15. Considered 2-year period from 1 Aug. 2009 to 31 July 2011 Looked at Year 1 (2009-10) vs. Year 2 (2010-11) Used archived near-real-time hourly O 3, PM 2.5, and NO 2 Canadian data from National Air Pollutant Surveillance (NAPS) network stations and hourly O 3 and PM 2.5 U.S. data from AIRNow Performed some limited screening for outliers 2-Year Performance Evaluation Results for GEM-MACH15

16. Minimum number of available Canadian and U.S. stations in 2009-2011 for O 3, PM 2.5, and NO 2 in the Oct.–Mar. and Apr.–Sept. periods Country/SpeciesO3O3 PM 2.5 NO 2 Canada summer 184170134 Canada winter 182171133 U.S. summer1,128597N/A U.S. winter 626599N/A

17. Year 1 Annual Correlation (R) Values O3O3 PM 2.5 NO 2

18. Year 1 & Year 2 Annual Time Series Of National-Average Daily Maximum 1-h O 3 Concentrations At Canadian & U.S. Stations Cda Year 1 U.S. Year 2 U.S. Year 1 Cda Year 2

19. Year 1 & Year 2 Annual Time Series Of National-Average Daily Max’m 1-h PM 2.5 Concentrations At Canadian & U.S. Stations

20. Year 1 & Year 2 Annual Time Series Of National-Average Daily Maximum 1-h NO 2 Concentrations At Canadian Stations Cda Year 1 Cda Year 2

21. Regions for Model Evaluation EUSA ECANWCAN WUSA

22. Monthly Variation Of Regional Mean NMB For Daily Maximum PM 2.5 For 4 Regions For Full 2 Years

23. S Migration to IBM p7 computer S Reduced grid spacing (15  10? km) S Further improvements to emissions files S/M Improved process representations M Migration to GEMv4 (new staggered vertical discretization, updated chemistry bus, piloting at top of limited-area grid) M Improved initialization using objectively- analyzed model-measurement fields M/L Longer forecasts (48  72+ h) Future Plans (Short- / Medium- / Long-term)

24. Current EC RAQDPS produces twice-daily 48-hour forecasts of hourly AQ concentration fields on North American domain with 15-km grid spacing GEM-MACH15 performance is limited by accuracy of – meteorological forecasts – input emissions fields – chemical lateral boundary conditions – process representations – horizontal and vertical resolution Preliminary GEM-MACH15 performance evaluation is available for 2009-2011 period Further performance improvements are expected in next 18 months from implementation of new versions Summary