1. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 RISKS AND BENEFITS OF PESTICIDES FOR FUTURE GLOBAL FOOD DEMANDS Dr. Gerry Stephenson Department of Environmental Biology University of Guelph Guelph, Ontario, Canada Gerry.stephenson@rogers.com

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6. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 HEALTH RISKS WITH PESTICIDES DEPEND ON PESTICIDE and HUMAN TOXICITY EXPOSURE

7. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 More women are choosing research careers in agriculture But this a poor illustration of how to dress when using a research sprayer

8. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 Applicators of unregistered pesticides in research Should wear full protective clothing

9. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 In industrialized countries, Most growers are trained and certified pesticide applicators

10. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 Fortunately, Mistakes and accidents like this are rare

11. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 Advances in sprayer technology are reducing risks For the applicator and for the environment

12. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 Especially in landscape situations How much protective clothing is required for safety? HAND-HELD PESTICIDE SPRAYERS ARE STILL USED IN NORTH AMERICA

13. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 Pesticides are commonly applied with hand held sprayers in “Developing countries” Notice the bare skin, especially the hands!

14. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 EXPOSURE PROBLEMS Aren’t limited to hand held equipment

15. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 HEALTH RISKS WITH PESTICIDES ARE A PREVENTABLE PROBLEM Proper pesticide use rarely causes a health problem Problems can be prevented by the continued development of even safer pesticides Industrialized countries have effective regulatory, educational and training programs for applicators These programs are expensive to maintain and will be a challenge to implement in developing countries

16. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 PESTICIDES CAN BE AN ENVIRONMENTAL RISK Risk depends on volume of use persistence mobility non-target toxicity

17. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 EVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS ABOUT PESTICIDES 1960’s Today Insecticides Herbicides

18. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 EVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS ABOUT PESTICIDES Spray Drift Early studies on 2,4-D drift More recent studies on glyphosate or clomazone drift

19. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS ABOUT PESTICIDES Early concerns about 2,4-D, atrazine, metolachlor Less concern with new “low rate” pesticides PESTICIDE CONTAMINATION OF WATER

20. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS ABOUT PESTICIDES SOIL RESIDUE CARRY OVER PROBLEMS Earlier studies with triazine herbicides More recent concerns with sulfonylurea or imidazolinone herbicides

21. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 NEW LOW-RATE HERBICIDES (<100 g/ha) Are reducing environmental risks in general However, soil residue carry-over concerns are environmental problems for the farmers

22. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 ROTHAMSTEAD SOIL STUDY SHOWS EFFECTS OF PESTICIDES IN SOIL ARE REVERSIBLE 17 months after applying five pesticides per year for 20 years no detectable pesticide residues no differences in microbial activity no effect on barley yield, as indicator crop Evans(IUPAC)1998

23. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 BENEFITS OF PESTICIDES -TO WHOM? _________________________________________ Numbers Chemical companiesVery small GrowersSmall ConsumersLarge Society Vast

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25. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 BENEFITS OF PESTICIDES -TO WHOM? ________________________________ Numbers Chemical companiesVery small GrowersSmall ConsumersLarge Society Vast

26. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 Growers expect a $4 return on each $1 spent on pesticides Is this still true?

27. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 BANNING PESTICIDE USE IN THE USA Would reduce agricultural output by 30% At pesticide & commodity prices in 1997 There would be a $3 to $4 return for each $1 spent on pesticides Fernandez-Cornejo et.al., 1998

28. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 Governments in a number of industrialized countries have set goals for reducing the use of pesticides in agriculture

29. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 FOOD SYSTEMS 2002 IN ONTARIO, CANADA OBJECTIVES To reduce total Kg of pesticide use by 50% by the year 2002 While maintaining agricultural productivity METHODS Improved grower education, IPM and development of more alternatives

30. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 FOOD SYSTEMS 2002 Reduction in Kg of agricultural pesticides between 1983 and 1998 For all agricultural crops 38% For maize (our largest crop) 48% Reasons Better grower education, IPM, alternatives Shift to new “low-rate” pesticides

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32. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 FOOD SYSTEMS 2002 Reduction in E.I.Q./ha between 1983 and1998 For all crops 34% For corn(maize) 40% The next survey is for this year, 2003

33. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 BENEFITS OF PESTICIDES -TO WHOM? ________________________________ Numbers Chemical companiesVery small GrowersSmall ConsumersLarge Society Vast

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35. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 BENEFITS OF PESTICIDES -TO WHOM? ________________________________ Numbers Chemical companiesVery small GrowersSmall ConsumersLarge Society Vast

36. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 BENEFITS OF PESTICIDES -TO WHOM? ________________________________ Numbers Chemical companiesVery small GrowersSmall ConsumersLarge Society Vast

37. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 SOCIETAL BENEFITS MINUS COSTS OF PESTICIDE USE IN THE USA The annual use of $6.5 billion worth of pesticides Prevents $26 billion in crop losses due to pests About a $4 return per $1 spent on pesticides to the growers Pimentel and Greiner, 1997

38. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 SOCIETAL BENEFITS MINUS COSTS OF PESTICIDE USE IN THE USA Estimated indirect costs of pesticide use is $8 billion per year (regulation, training, health & environmental losses) $26 billion in benefits/$14.5 billion in costs equals about a $2 return to society for each $1spent on pesticides Pimentel and Greiner, 1997

39. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 AGRICULTURAL PESTICIDE USE SAVES ENERGY HUMAN ENERGY FOSSIL FUELS

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41. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 PESTICIDES SAVE HUMAN ENERGY Proportion of population involved in food production: N. America2% 1 in 50 Brazil20% 1 in 5 Mexico25% 1 in 4 World wide45% 1 in 2 Kenya 70% 2 in 3* *Mostly women and children. African women spend half of their waking hours working in the fields

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43. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 PESTICIDES REDUCE WORLD HUNGER

44. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 ESTIMATED CONTRIBUTION OF CROP PROTECTION CHEMICALS TO WORLDWIDE PRODUCTION OF THE EIGHT PRINCIPAL FOOD AND CASH CROPS (1990 vs 1965) Oerke et. al., 1994 We harvest only 58% of the theoretical, world-wide yield

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51. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 “MANY PEOPLE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE IMPACT OF PESTICIDES ON THE ENVIRONMENT”

52. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 “MORE PEOPLE SHOULD BE CONCERNED ABOUT THE IMPACT OF AGRICULTURE ON THE WORLD ENVIRONMENT”

53. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 PESTICIDES HELP SAVE LAND Since 1960, world agricultural production has tripled on 6 million square miles of land We would need to find new land for agriculture equivalent to all the agricultural land in Brazil, EU and USA combined Avery, 1997 Advances in crop protection, breeding & fertility

54. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 “If agricultural pesticides had not been available since 1950, we would have already lost half of today’s forested land to food production” Lester Brown, 2001

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56. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base. (September 17, 2003) EXPECTED POPULATION TRENDS IN CHINA, 1950-2050

57. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, International Data Base. (September 17, 2003) EXPECTED POPULATION TRENDS IN OTHER ASIAN COUNTRIES, 1950-2050

58. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 After 2050, will world population actually decline? Or, will politicians encourage women to resume having three or more children to sustain a growth economy?

59. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 FOR MOST OF THIS 21 ST CENTURY 50% more people will need food (9 vs 6 billion) With industrialization, they may have 50% more buying power There will be a need for twice as much food Thompson,1998

60. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 IF DIETARY TRENDS IN JAPAN ARE A GOOD EXAMPLE PEOPLE WILL CONSUME more soybeans,vegetables, fruits more dairy products more animal protein less rice, wheat, maize, sorghum These trends will require much higher yields or more land for agriculture

61. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 HOW MUCH AGRICULTURAL LAND WILL THERE BE? We may be able to increase agricultural land about 10% (S. America etc.) However, We may increase the amount of land used to produce fuel, fiber and other non-food crops

62. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 HOW CAN WE DOUBLE “NET” YIELDS OF FOOD CROPS AGAIN ON ABOUT THE SAME LAND AREA? Oerke et. al., Can we achieve 90% instead of 60% of our theoretical yield? (harvest 20% more and prevent 10% losses in storage) Better pest control throughout the world? 50% MORE FOOD?

63. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 We need advances and better application of both, INTEGRATED PEST MANAGEMENT and CROP GENETICS TO DOUBLE WORLD FOOD PRODUCTION BY 2050

64. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 “ Technically, this may be possible” “Psychologically, it may be impossible”

65. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 THE MENTAL AFFLUENCE TRAP “People’s willingness to accept change is inversely proportional to their affluence” “This eventually leads to mental immobility for the affluent, who become critical of the new technology that was originally responsible for their affluence.” “Conversely, the less affluent will readily accept change in an effort to improve their prosperity.” Hans Mohr, Univ. Freiburg, 1990

66. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 THEREFORE People in developing countries will want to increase pesticide use to improve their standard of living People in industrialized countries will want to decrease pesticide use and purchase more organic food to preserve their health and prosperity

67. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 DEVELOPING COUNTRIES WANT TO PRODUCE MORE FOOD FOR THEMSELVES AND HAVE SOME TO SELL TO OTHER COUNTRIES AS WELL Developing countries will increase pesticide use We must help them develop suitable regulations and training programs to prevent adverse health effects and environmental problems

68. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 CONCLUDING COMMENTS I favor a 100% reduction in pesticide use when they aren’t needed to increase crop yields. Is prohibiting “needed pesticide” use, morally correct in view of world food needs?”

69. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 ORGANIC FARMING ? I would hate to see a large shift to organic farming in industrialized countries in an attempt by farmers to make more money by catering to the more affluent

70. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 A GOAL FOR THIS 21 st CENTURY TO PREVENT HUMAN HUNGER WITHOUT IRREVERSIBLE HARM TO THE WORLD ENVIRONMENT

71. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 WORLD POPULATION If world population peaks at 9 billion in 2050 and declines to <6 billion during the 22 nd century

72. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 Future generations may have the choice between organic farming or reducing land for agriculture It would be very selfish and narrow-minded to think that we have that choice today! BEYOND 2100

73. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 THANK YOU

74. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 The text of this talk was recently published as Chapter 15, in: ACS Symposium Series 853, American Chemical Society, Washington D.C., 2003

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86. G.R.S. Univ. Guelph IUPAC – KSPS 13-10-03 FOR THE 10 MAJOR AGRICULTURAL STATES IN THE USA Economic benefits of pesticide use to growers declined from $8 per $1 spent on pesticides in 1949 to $4 per $1spent on pesticides in 1991 Teague and Brorsen, 1995

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