1. Ecocene Applied Research Transforming Data to Knowledge Greater Victoria Long Term Enrolment Projections: 2006 - 2020

2. Ecocene Applied Research Transforming Data to Knowledge Issues  Declining enrolment  Implementation of grade reconfiguration  Desire for independent projections  Need to look at a fifteen year horizon  School, grade and program level

3. Ecocene Applied Research Transforming Data to Knowledge Solution – Long Term Enrolment Projection Model  Provides an independent view.  Provides outside experience.  Provides projections structured to the needs of the District.  Allows for exploration of impacts.

4. Ecocene Applied Research Transforming Data to Knowledge Assumptions  A major assumption is that patterns of enrolment for closed schools will carry on to the schools where those enrolments are moved.  Adult enrolments, are included in these projections.  International students or other fee paying students are specifically excluded.  Some historical enrolments for closed schools only appear in the District as a School projection.  Projections are headcounts and are best compared to future headcounts.  FTEs are estimates based on the historical averages of FTEs to Headcount by Grade for the District.

5. Ecocene Applied Research Transforming Data to Knowledge Methodology The process of building the enrolment projections has three basic phases:  Obtaining data,  Building baseline enrolment projections,  And adjusting for individual circumstances.

6. Ecocene Applied Research Transforming Data to Knowledge Data Collection  Obtain headcount enrolment by school, program and grade for six years.  Population projections were obtained for the District from BC Stats.  Contact municipal planning authorities in the District to obtain information on any upcoming developments that might impact school age populations.

7. Ecocene Applied Research Transforming Data to Knowledge Building Baseline Projections  A model projection was built using linear regression to estimate cohort retention from grade to grade.  This methodology was also used to determine the proportion of 4 year olds (from BC Stats Projections) that would be moving into Kindergarten and thus becoming the base cohort for subsequent years.  Six years of data produced five data pairs for each grade/program/school combination. Thus, for Grade 3 French Immersion at Margaret Jenkins there is a unique set of five data points that determine the linear regression formula that links the Grade 2 enrolments (y variable) with the Grade 3 enrolments (x variable).  This model projection was replicated for all schools and grades and for Regular, French Immersion, and District Programs.  School Families’ projections were produced by summing the individual school projections within each family.

8. Ecocene Applied Research Transforming Data to Knowledge Adjusting for Individual Circumstances  Given the natural volatility of school catchments, parental choice and the impact of Grade Reconfiguration there are some schools and grades for which the baseline model does not work well and had to be adjusted.  These included: shortening the time frame (to three years in some cases); using simple retention methods (averages over time); in some cases simply carrying existing enrolments forward (e.g. some district programs).  Only projections clearly unreasonable were adjusted. Some projections may produce results that are unexpected but are still possible. One must be careful not to adjust projections to fit your preconceptions.

9. Ecocene Applied Research Transforming Data to Knowledge Sample Table

10. Ecocene Applied Research Transforming Data to Knowledge Regular Enrolments

11. Ecocene Applied Research Transforming Data to Knowledge French Immersion Enrolments

12. Ecocene Applied Research Transforming Data to Knowledge District Program Enrolments

13. Ecocene Applied Research Transforming Data to Knowledge Sum of All Enrolments

14. Ecocene Applied Research Transforming Data to Knowledge Initial Cohort Chart

15. Ecocene Applied Research Transforming Data to Knowledge Enrolment by School Level

16. Ecocene Applied Research Transforming Data to Knowledge Enrolment by Program Type

17. Ecocene Applied Research Transforming Data to Knowledge Enrolment by Grade

18. Ecocene Applied Research Transforming Data to Knowledge Year Over Year Same Grade Percentage Growth

19. Ecocene Applied Research Transforming Data to Knowledge Year Over Year Same Grade Percentage Growth

20. Ecocene Applied Research Transforming Data to Knowledge In Conclusion  While projections are designed to be as accurate as possible, they remain projections;  As such, they will vary from actual enrolments.