1. Grandparents & Grandchildren Bruce Gregor www.findem.com.au Inflection Points for Baby Boomers Australian Population Association Conference 6-8 December 2006

2. www.findem.com.au 2 1950 2050 1.2 m Grandparents Av Age 59 First-timers Av Age 48 64% of Over-65 Pop. 3.1 m Grandchildren Av Age 13 36% of 25-29 yr olds 5% of Over-30’s 5.7 m Grandparents Av Age 71 First-timers Av Age 54 54% of Over-65 Pop. 13.8 m Grandchildren Av Age 23 90% of 25-29 yr olds 23% of Over-30’s

3. www.findem.com.au 3 1950 2006 2050 1.2 m Grandparents Av Age 59 First-timers Av Age 48 64% of Over-65 Pop. 3.1 m Grandchildren Av Age 13 36% of 25-29 yr olds 5% of Over-30’s 5.7 m Grandparents Av Age 71 First-timers Av Age 54 54% of Over-65 Pop. 13.8 m Grandchildren Av Age 23 90% of 25-29 yr olds 23% of Over-30’s 4.1 m Grandparents Av Age 65 First-timers Av Age 51 75% of Over-65 Pop. 8.8 m Grandchildren Av Age 18 67% of 25-29 yr olds 13% of Over-30’s

4. www.findem.com.au 4 Drivers of Change Grandparents –Age specific Fertility –Childlessness –Distance from Grandchildren Grandchildren –Mortality Improvement of Grandparents –Partnering Patterns of Mothers & Fathers –Distance from Grandparents

5. www.findem.com.au 5 Two Generation Fertility

6. www.findem.com.au 6 Two Generation Childlessness

7. www.findem.com.au 7 Grandparent Life Expectancy using cohort mortality from age of birth of grandparent generation

8. www.findem.com.au 8

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10. 10 Divorce Rate

11. www.findem.com.au 11 Net Overseas migration age profile 2003

12. www.findem.com.au 12 Issues for study in Kinship Age of first becoming a Grandparent and withdrawal from workforce Overseas resident Grandchildren and Grandparent travel Overseas resident Grandparents and Grandchildren travel Increased % of young adults with Grandparents –Influence on more conservative values for young adults? –Grandchildren assisting Parents with carer roles for elderly relatives? –Gifting wealth for school fees and housing finance –Will step-children and step-grandchildren create more or less options for elder care? Segregated retirement lifestyles –Retirees with Grandchildren –Retirees without Grandchildren Multi-generation households and unaffordable house prices

13. www.findem.com.au 13 Other Studies of Kinship & Resources Links UK - Emily Grundy –London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine –Using 1999 Omnibus Survey interviews with 1,800 UK Households USA - Kenneth W. Wachter –University of California, Berkley –Micro simulations projecting 3 generations of (white) kin and step kin in 1990-2030 Resources Links –This Paper and Results as a spreadsheet http://www.findem.com.au/resources/resourcesarchiver.php http://www.findem.com.au/resources/resourcesarchiver.php –Links to Grandparents sites http://www.findem.com.au/resources/resourcesarchivek.php http://www.findem.com.au/resources/resourcesarchivek.php