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An Overview of the European Property Investment Markets By King Sturge.

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Presentation on theme: "An Overview of the European Property Investment Markets By King Sturge."— Presentation transcript:

1 An Overview of the European Property Investment Markets By King Sturge

2 Average GDP Growth forecast

3 Office Yield Trends

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5 Retail Yield Trends

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7 Industrial Yield Trends

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9 Yield Trends Stabilizing yields rather than the much anticipated harmonization Stabilizing yields rather than the much anticipated harmonization Leases are still so different, both in terms of landlords obligations and reversionary potential - especially but not only UK versus the rest Leases are still so different, both in terms of landlords obligations and reversionary potential - especially but not only UK versus the rest

10 Office Rent Trends m² p.a.

11 Office Rent Trends

12 Retail Rent Trends m² p.a.

13 Retail Rent Trends

14 Industrial Rent Trends m² p.a.

15 Industrial Rent Trends

16 Rent Trends Growth slowing down in most markets Growth slowing down in most markets Where next? Where next?

17 Office Eureka Chart

18 Retail Eureka Chart

19 Industrial Eureka Chart

20 European Vacancy Rates

21 United Kingdom Pros Pros Leases Leases Market maturity Market maturity Economy Economy Cons Cons Currency Currency Market cycle Market cycle Pricing versus debt Pricing versus debt

22 France Pros Pros High yields for certain sectors High yields for certain sectors Strong economy Strong economy Low vacancy Low vacancy Cons Cons Leases (v tenant friendly) Leases (v tenant friendly) Reversions difficult Reversions difficult

23 Spain Pros Pros Strong GDP growth Strong GDP growth Low vacancy (at present) Low vacancy (at present) Cons Cons Low yields Low yields High rents High rents Supply increasing in certain areas Supply increasing in certain areas

24 Germany Pros Pros Low ( current) vacancy rates in many markets Low ( current) vacancy rates in many markets High land prices support values High land prices support values Stability Stability Cons Cons Low yields Low yields Recent very strong rental growth (in certain sectors) Recent very strong rental growth (in certain sectors)

25 Italy Pros Pros Emerging market Emerging market Release of prime real estate assets from public sector Release of prime real estate assets from public sector Euro provides more comfort for investors Euro provides more comfort for investors Cons Cons Maturity of Market Maturity of Market Not especially cheap Not especially cheap Fairly landlord friendly leases (break after 6yrs) Fairly landlord friendly leases (break after 6yrs)

26 Belgium Pros Pros Good demand from EU particularly if enlargement goes ahead Good demand from EU particularly if enlargement goes ahead Low rental base Low rental base Yields slightly above European average Yields slightly above European average Cons Cons High transfer costs ca.15% High transfer costs ca.15% Leases similar to France-tenant friendly Leases similar to France-tenant friendly Low GDP and rental growth Low GDP and rental growth

27 Holland Pros Pros Strong GDP growth Strong GDP growth Low vacancy rates Low vacancy rates Cons Cons Certain markets (eg Amsterdam offices) have been v strong Certain markets (eg Amsterdam offices) have been v strong

28 Scandinavia Pros Pros Denmark has seen steady long term growth Denmark has seen steady long term growth Major infrastructure Major infrastructure investment investment Cons Cons Sweden has had very strong rental growth Sweden has had very strong rental growth Investment markets mainly local Investment markets mainly local

29 Switzerland Pros Pros Growth has been slower than much of EU Growth has been slower than much of EU Possibly more opportunities especially in Geneva Possibly more opportunities especially in Geneva Market cycle is behind much of EU Market cycle is behind much of EU Cons Cons Not in EU Not in EU Still secretive Still secretive Low yields (but low debt rates) Low yields (but low debt rates)

30 Austria Pros Pros Recent interest from Germans and Anglo/US Recent interest from Germans and Anglo/US Gateway to Central Europe Gateway to Central Europe Cons Cons Restricted market Restricted market CBD not well defined CBD not well defined

31 Portugal Pros Pros Emerged market Emerged market Yields high in an EU context but have firmed Yields high in an EU context but have firmed Cons Cons Lease law Lease law Much recent development especially retail Much recent development especially retail

32 Ireland Pros Pros GDP growth GDP growth US base for EU US base for EU Euro with UK style leases Euro with UK style leases Cons Cons Very high recent growth Very high recent growth Labour shortage Labour shortage Inflation (6%) Inflation (6%)

33 Central Europe Pros Pros Yield convergence with Euroland Yield convergence with Euroland Emerging markets Emerging markets Cons Cons Immediate economic prospects mixed Immediate economic prospects mixed Rents still falling in some markets Rents still falling in some markets

34 Hot Spots Spanish industrial Spanish industrial Denmark Denmark Central Europe industrial Central Europe industrial Reversionary Paris offices Reversionary Paris offices UK retail (oversold) UK retail (oversold) German industrial German industrial Selected German offices (with quick reversion) Selected German offices (with quick reversion)


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