1. ENSO in CMIP5 and how it relates to the Indian Summer Monsoon Rajeev Kurup & Krishna AchutaRao

2. Work in Progress Continuation of previous work (AchutaRao & Sperber 2002, 2006) New Flavors  Modoki  CT/EP & WP Teleconnections with Indian Monsoon Rainfall datasets

4. Defining ENSO Events Form DJF seasonal anomalies of NIÑO3 TAS and SOI Standardize the two time series If Standardized NIÑO3 anomaly  0.6 AND Standard SOI  -0.6 If Standardized NIÑO3 anomaly  -0.6 AND Standardized SOI  0.6 Warm EventCold Event From AchutaRao & Spreber (2002, 2006)

5. Warm Event (Niño3-SOI) DJF SST Composite

6. El Niño Modoki DJF SST Composite

7. Cold Tongue El Niño (EP) and Warm Pool El Niño (WP) EP events = Standardized SONDJF NINO3 SST anomaly > 1 and should be grater than Standardized NINO4 anomaly. WP events = Standardized SONDJF NINO4 SST anomaly > 1 and should be grater than Standardized NINO3 anomaly. Kug et. al, J. Climate, 2009

8. East Pacific Event (2N-2S)

9. Warm Pool Event (2N-2S)

11. All EventsWPEPNINO3 SOIJJAS Anomaly (%) 1877/1878NYY-32% 1888/1889NYY-6% 1896/1897NYY1% 1899/1900NYY-23% 1902/1903NYY-5% 1904/1905NNY-10% 1905/1906NYY-17% 1911/1912NYY-14% 1914/1915NNY7% 1918/1919NYY-27% 1925/1926NYY-4% 1930/1931NYN-5% 1939/1940NNY-6% 1940/1941NNY-1% 1941/1942YNY-13% 1951/1952NYY-15% 1957/1958YNY-6% 1963/1964NNY4% 1965/1966NYY-18% 1968/1969YNN-7% 1969/1970YNY1% 1972/1973NYY-21% 1977/1978YNN5% 1982/1983NYY-12% 1986/1987YNY-13% 1987/1988YNN-18% 1990/1991YNN7% 1991/1992YNY-3% 1994/1995YNY14% 1997/1998NYY2% 2002/2003YNY-21% 2003/2004YNN2% 2004/2005YNN-10% 2006/2007YNN3% 2009/2010YNYNA

17. Composite JJAS Precipitation (season prior to peak of ENSO) Niño3-SOI EventEast Pacific EventWarm Pool Event

20. To be continued….. Rainfall datasets over India need a more thorough look Composite analysis of various “model” flavors of ENSO ongoing ENSO-Monsoon relationship in models also being looked at