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Quantitative Methods for Researchers Paul Cairns paul.cairns@york.ac.uk
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Your objectives Pretty general! – Landscape/area of experiments 2
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My objectives Importance of experimental method Experiments as evidence Validity Scrutability Statistics as model comparison 3
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Preliminary question? 4
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Experiments as evidence Randomness removes certainty Experiments frame data Without frame, no point 5
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Experimental argument Theory:X causes Y Test: change X and measure Y But: – variation (people, stochastic) – other things affect Y – hard to measure Y Statistics pierce through the murk! 6
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Theories in computing Thin on the ground – Name one? Low relevance to applications So experiments are pointless? 7
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Experimental Computing Experiments have own value Experiments inform theory Narrative context We create the objects of study QUAN, Paul Cairns
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Experimental argument Belief:X causes Y – A reason for looking Try: change X and measure Y Analyse carefully Produce evidence 9
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Variables Independent variable (IV, X) Dependent variable (DV, Y) – quantitative Confounding variables 10
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Devising an experiment Research question (disposable) One sentence May use jargon Answer is “yes/no” but probably “maybe” Question suggests how to answer it QUAN, Paul Cairns
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Revise your research question In groups of three or four, each have a go at a research question. Take turns to explain and be criticised. Be happy to be wrong/stupid. RQs are disposable. QUAN, Paul Cairns
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Evidence If – X has really changed – Y has been properly measured – Nothing else has changed – The result was significant Then – Evidence that X causes Y 13
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Value? Modest but cumulative Opportunity for falsification Evidence Isolation of phenomena 14
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Not black and white Experiments are not proof – Validity – Assumptions Experiments have a frame – Eg speed of gravity 15
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Write up Title and abstract Aims = lit review Method Results Discussion 16
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Why do we do a literature review? 17
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Literature Previous research Defines the community What and who Implicit standard Implicit style QUAN, Paul Cairns
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Using literature Importance Interest Originality Insight
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What’s the purpose of a write up? 20
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Method section Aim and hypothesis Participants Variables Design Materials Procedure 21
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Writing as a tool Necessary headings: – write them! – Before you do the expt What will sig show? Is it valid? Forces a dialogue – With self or supervisor 22
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Fantasy abstract Write an abstract for your experiment (150-250 words) specifying: 1.What the question is 2.Why it is interesting/important 3.What was done in the experiment What IV and DV are 4.What significant results (would) show 5.What this means 23
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Swap abstracts – “homework” Do you know what the question is? Why is it interesting/important? What is the experimental argument? Do you believe it? What would make it better? 24
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Reading Abelson, Statistics as Principled Argument Hacking, Representing and Intervening Cairns, Cox, Research Methods for HCI: chaps 1, 6, 10 Harris, Designing and reporting experiments in psychology, 3rd edn 25
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