1. Household Projections for Wales Tony Whiffen

2. Presentation Outline Background Broad Methodology - Wales Wales Results / Issues Future Plans

3. Background 2003-based household projections for Wales (2006) –only available at regional level –Last set under DCLG / Anglia Ruskin contract Opportunity to develop own methodology 2007-08 –Population and Households –Local Authority level projections –Not constrained Wales NPP ≠ ∑ 22 Local Authority Projections

4. Background Membership method chosen 2008 2006-based household projections for Wales published June 2009 2008-based set September 2010 Variant projections Also National Park projections Using HOUSEGROUP WALES (forerunner to Derived Forecasts)

5. Variant Projections Produced using available variant population projections –High: high fertility and low mortality –Low: low fertility and high mortality –Natural Change only / Zero Migration

6. Household Estimates Household Estimates  2010 (Feb 2011) Based on ONS population estimates not Council Tax estimates Effectively ‘projected estimates’ –Populations – estimated –Household membership rates - projected

7. Broad Methodology Use Membership Rates Household types based on size and presence of children Census data used to project membership rates –APS considered but rejected Outputs broken down by household type

8. The Membership Method Formula: where h i = total households in year i t = household type ag = age and gender group pop agi = population in age and gender group ag in year i comm agi = communal establishment population in age and gender group ag in year i y agti = membership rate for age and gender group ag and household type t in year i size t = household size for type t

9. 1 person4 person (no children) 2 person (no children)4 person (2+ adults, 1+ children) 2 person (1 adult, 1 child)4 person (1 adult, 3 children) 3 person (no children)5 + person (no children) 3 person (2 adults, 1 child)5 + person (2+ adults, 1+ children) 3 person (1 adult, 2 children)5 + person (1 adult, 4 + children) Household Types

10. 0-440-44 5-945-49 10-1550-54 16-1855-59 19-2460-64 25-2965-74 30-3475-84 35-3985+ Age Bands

11. Membership Rates Data from 1991 and 2001 Censuses used as APS/LFS data not suitable Two point exponential model used as a result: where i = the year y i = membership rate in year i k = 1 if y2001 ≥ y1991 0 if y2001 < y1991 a = y1991 – k b = (y2001 – k)/(y1991 – k) x i = (i – 1991)/(2001 – 1991)

12. Membership Rates – Range

13. Membership Rates: Largest increases/decreases

15. Projected Households, Wales

16. Projected Total Population, Wales Source: Government Actuary’s Department / ONS

18. Future Plans Look at Migration assumptions in LA Population Projections Assess projections vs 2011 Census results –Analysis of ‘actual’ vs ‘projected’ 2011 figures –Third point to project household trends from –New Assumption for Communal Establishments population

19. Future Plans Shorter time lag between LA Population and Household Projections Membership rate variants ?

20. Further information www.wales.gov.uk/statistics Email: stats.popcensus@wales.gsi.gov.uk stats.popcensus@wales.gsi.gov.uk Phone: 029 2082 1595