1. © Workforce Planning Australia - www.workforceplanning.com.au The Hume Workforce Development Committee Hume Regional Development Australia Labour Market Snapshot Workforce Planning Australia | March 2012 It’s all about the Evidence........

2. What is a Labour Market Scan? The approach for developing the Labour Market Snapshots considered a range of information as shown by the graphic below: 2 | The primary focus of the snapshots is on identifying Hume industry & occupational growth trends. The primary focus of the snapshots is on identifying Hume industry & occupational growth trends. The population, education & workforce participation levels provide context for regional labour market analysis. The population, education & workforce participation levels provide context for regional labour market analysis. Level of detail

3. Data Overview

4. Labour Market Data Sources 4 | The Labour Market Snapshots drew on multiple data sources. These include: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS): o Census Data, 2006 o Labour force Surveys o Industry reports DEEWR: o Skills Shortages List o Regional profile information Hume: o Workforce Development Committee Report o Hume Strategy for Sustainable Communities Other: o Skills Info Industry Reports o Skills Victoria Enrolment data o Monash CoPs Data on occupations o Industry Skills Councils – Environmental Labour Market Scans

5. Quality and Limitations The data challenges included: 1. Different definitions of industries / occupations between ABS, Industry Skills Councils and Monash. – ‘Health Care and Social Assistance’ (ABS) vs Community Services & Health – Different terms used for occupations, ‘personal carers’ or ‘health aid’ etc. 2. Different Time periods 3. Old Data - ABS Census data is now 6 years old. 4. Lack of HUME region industry data particularly for industries where employers are predominantly private sector (e.g. manufacturing and Transport and Logistics) 5. Lack of regional Skills Shortage Data – DEEWR lists are at the State level 6. Changes in name and level of VET qualifications (training packages) 7. Poor sourcing of data – The data source and date were unclear 5 |

6. Limitations on trend analysis When available the 2011 ABS Census data should be compared with 2006 data to build a picture of emerging and declining occupations in Hume. Key data includes: Industry employed by Age and LGA Occupation by Age and LGA Education Levels by Age and LGA Main good and Services provided by employer by LGA Hours worked by occupation and Age 6 |

7. Hume Labour Market

8. About Hume The Hume Region is comprised of four distinct and inter-connected sub regions that extend over 40,000 square kilometres of provincial northeast Victoria. The Region contains twelve local government areas (LGAs) and is characterised by a network of regional cities and centres located along major transport routes. There is no single dominant major regional city in the Hume Region. The four Hume sub regions are structured as follows: ― Central Hume: Alpine, Benalla, Mansfield and Wangaratta ― Goulburn Valley: Greater Shepparton, Moira, Strathbogie and Campaspe ― Lower Hume: Mitchell and Murrindindi ― Upper Hume: Indigo, Towong and Wodonga 8 | Source: The Hume Strategy for sustainable communities 2010-2020, Skills Victoria.

9. Population profile 9 | Towong 6,343 Wodonga 36,432 Alpine 12,866 Mansfield 7,972 Hume Region Boundary Sub-region Boundary Local Government Area (LGA) Boundary Indigo 16,111 Murrindindi 13,505 Mitchell 35,044 Strathbogie 10,012 G Shepparton Moira 29,385 Wangaratta 28,938 Benalla 14,293 63,335 The total population of the Hume region is 274,236 people spread across 12 LGAs: Source: ABS Census Data 2006

10. Population Growth Projection Significant population growth is expected in Mitchell, Wodonga and Greater Shepparton A drop in population is expected in Towong, Murrindindi and Strathbogie 10 | Source: Regional Managers Market Facilitation & ACFE October 2011

11. Workforce Participation Rates (Adult Population) by LGA 11 | Towong 72% (2006) Wodonga 75%(2006) Alpine 71% (2006) Mansfield 72% (2006) Hume Region Boundary Sub-region Boundary Local Government Area (LGA) Boundary Indigo 68%(2006) Murrindindi 69% (2006) Mitchell 70% (2006) Strathbogie 70% (2006) G Shepparton Moira 71% (2006) Wangaratta 75%(2006) Benalla 73%(2006) 72%(2006) xxx (2011) Source: ABS Census Data 2006 Labour force (below 65) as percentage of total LGA population:

12. Unemployment Rate by LGA 12 | Towong 3.7% (2006) Wodonga 5.3% (2006) Alpine 4.6% (2006) Mansfield 4.3% (2006) Hume Region Boundary Sub-region Boundary Local Government Area (LGA) Boundary Indigo 3.7% (2006) Murrindindi 4.2% (2006) Mitchell 4.8% (2006) Strathbogie 4.4%(2006) G Shepparton Moira 4.7% (2006) Wangaratta 4.6% (2006) Benalla 5.7% (2006) 6.0% (2006) xxx (2011) Source: ABS Census Data 2006

13. Employment by LGA and Industry 13 | Retail Trade, Manufacturing & Health & Community Services are the largest employing industries in Hume. Greater Shepparton and Wodonga have the highest working population. Source: Regional Managers Market Facilitation & ACFE October 2011

14. Difficult to fill Occupations 14 | Occupations – Difficult to fill in North Eastern Victoria Bachelor and Higher VETVET and other General Medical PractitionersSales Reps Early Childhood TeachersBar Attendants and Baristas Chefs*Truck Drivers* Motor Mechanics*Sales Assistants (General)* Reg Nurses*Motor Vehicle and Vehicle parts salespersons Structural Steel and Welding Trades Workers Child carers Real Estate Sales Agents*General Clerks* Balers and Pastry CooksHousekeepers Source: DEEWR, North Eastern Victoria Priority Employment Area Survey of Employers’ Recruitment Experiences (Aug 2011) (* Aug 2010)

15. Education

16. Percentage of Population with Higher Level Qualification 16 | Hume Region Boundary Sub-region Boundary Local Government Area (LGA) Boundary Note: Higher Level Qualification= University degree level. Source: ABS Census Data 2006 Towong 10% Wodonga 10% Alpine 11% Mansfield 11% Indigo 14% Murrindindi 12% Mitchell 8% Strathbogie 9% G Shepparton Moira 6% Wangaratta 10% Benalla 10% 9%

17. Highest level of Educational Attainment 17 | Hume Highest Level of Educational Attainment Level20-24 (%)25-29 (%)Total whole population(%) Bachelor Degree or Above7%16%10% Adv Diploma/ Diploma/ Certificate 27%31%23% School Education56%43%53% Not Stated etc8%7%12% Source: ABS Census Data 2006

18. Hume VET Enrolments 18 | Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria. Construction, Health & Community Services, Manufacturing have seen significant increases in VET enrolments.

19. VET Enrolments Age Profile The majority of VET enrolments are in the 15-19 year old age group. This group has seen significant growth over the period to 2011. 19 | Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

20. Diversity of VET enrolments The diversity of enrolments has increased with greater numbers of CALD and indigenous students. Disabled enrolments has slightly declined. 20 | Source: Data prepared 9 March 2012, Market Analysis team, Skills Victoria.

21. © Workforce Planning Australia - www.workforceplanning.com.au Industry Specific Labour Market Scans Manufacturing Transport & Logistics Heath and Community Services

22. Manufacturing

23. Manufacturing Employment Overview Over the last decade, employment in the Manufacturing industry has decreased by 8.3% (86,000) Australia wide. In Hume Manufacturing employment is expected to decline over the period to 2016. There will be growth in Product Assemblers and other main employing occupations will remain steady to 2015- 16. 23 | National Manufacturing Employment (‘000)- 2001-2011 Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria. Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011

24. Manufacturing Education Overview There has been an increase in VET enrolments for the industry in Hume (driven by Cert IV, III, II, I levels). There has been significant growth in VET course enrolments from the 50-54 and 55-59 age groups. There has been an increase in the diversity of enrolments in Hume Manufacturing. The greatest increase has been in the proportion of CALD students. 24 | Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria. Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011

25. Workforce Planning Considerations 1. What are the occupations that will experience greatest growth / decline over the next 10 years? 2. What is driving the increase in VET course enrolments over the period 2008-2011 given Manufacturing is a declining industry? 3. What is driving the growth in VET course enrolments in mature aged workers (50-60 years)? 4. What is driving the increase in the diversity of course enrolments? Espcecially in the CALD students? 25 |

26. Transport & Logistics

27. Transport & Logistics Employment Overview National T & L Employment is projected to grow at 2.2% (stronger then all industries projection of 1.8%). T & L employment in Hume is expected to grow and level out over the period to 2015. (Average annual growth of 4%.) Gradual growth is expected in all T & L occupations (significant increase in truck drivers relative to other occupations). 27 | Projected National Employment Growth (% pa)- 2011-15 Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria. Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011

28. Transport & Logistics Education Overview There has been an increase in VET enrolments in T & L in Hume. (Cert III and diploma level). There has been significant growth in VET course enrolments from the 15-19 and 20- 24 year old age groups. The diversity of enrolments has increased. The greatest increase has come from the proportion of CALD students. 28 | Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria. Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011

29. Workforce Planning Considerations 1. What is driving growth stronger then the national average in the Hume Transport & Logistics industry? Have all factors been considered? 2. What has driven the increase in VET course enrolments over 2008-2011? o Growth in youth age groups of 15-19 and 20-24? o Increase in diversity of enrolments? WELL Program etc.? o Decrease in driver VET enrolments against this trend? Changes to training package / occupational requirements? 3. Are youth following a pathway in the industry? Starting in operational / administrative positions and transitioning to driver roles? 4. Is there a strategy to attract, recruit and retain truck drivers in the industry? 5. What factors are inhibiting youth age groups in the driver occupations? E.g. Insurance, cost, training etc.? 29 |

30. Health & Community Services

31. Health & Community Services Employment Overview National H & CS employment is forecast to grow by 4.7% over the next 5 years. Hume H & CS employment is expected to grow slightly and level out over the same period. There will be significant growth in Registered Nurses and Aged Carers. (All other occupations will generally remain steady). 31 | Projected National Employment Growth (% pa)- 2011 to 2015 Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria. Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011

32. Health & Community Services Education Overview There has been an increase in VET enrolments in H & CS in Hume. (Cert III and diploma level). There has been significant growth in VET course enrolments from the 15-19 and 40-44 year old age groups. The diversity of enrolments has remained constant and only slightly increased. 32 | Usage is restricted to the Department of Education & Early Childhood Development and third parties undertaking work on behalf of Skills Victoria. Source: Monash Centre of Policy Studies, 2011

33. Workforce Planning Considerations 1. What is driving growth on par or above the national average in the Hume Health & Community Services industry? Have all factors been considered? 2. What has driven the increase in VET course enrolments over 2008-2012? – Growth in youth age groups of 15-19 and 20-24? – Increase in diversity of enrolments? WELL Program etc.? – Diversity of enrolments has remained stable. Are there any strategies in place to increase diversity? 3. Is there a strategy to attract, recruit and retain nurses and aged carers in the industry? 4. Are there other smaller occupations that are showing growth at the local level? 5. Which occupations are employers reporting local skill shortages or recruitment difficulties? 6. What is the nature of the shortages/or difficulties? E.g. Are they seasonal? In pockets? For certain shifts or positions? Specific regions? Turnover related? 7. Are there clear pathways into these occupations and from these occupations to others? 33 |

34. 34 | Questions?

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